Tracking the Early Vote in New York, New Jersey and Virginia

[RandySF]

New York City mayor’s race

Since the city’s mayoral elections are held in off years (without a presidential election on the ballot), the electorate tends to be much smaller. And it skews older than in presidential elections, since older voters are often more politically engaged. On top of that, voters who cast their ballots early tend to be older than those who vote on Election Day.

So it’s no surprise that the people who have already voted this year have skewed older. What is surprising is that they aren’t as old as we might expect in a typical mayoral election — and they’re not that far off from a presidential year. Notably, people under 30 make up approximately the same share of early votes so far as they did for the entirety of the early vote period in 2024.


New Jersey governor’s race

Democrats are more likely to vote early than Republicans. This year, Democrats make up more than half of the early vote so far.

But the current New Jersey counts are disproportionately made up of people who mailed in ballots, as opposed to those voting early in person. And mail-in ballots tend to be disproportionately cast by Democrats. So even though Democrats appear to have a larger advantage right now than they had in early voting in 2024, Republicans could make up ground in the coming days.


Virginia governor’s race

When you account for that, there have not been significant changes in the partisan makeup of the early electorate compared with 2024. (You can exclude unaffiliated voters by using the buttons below.)

Ignoring the unaffiliated voters, Democrats make up 58 percent of the affiliated early vote so far, and Republicans 42 percent — almost exactly the same share of affiliated voters as in early voting in 2024. (Ms. Harris won Virginia by about six points in 2024.)






https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/31/upshot/early-voters-2025-election.html

[SunSeeker]

1. This all sounds like good news.