How many seats will red vs blue states pick up with gerrymandering?

[Baitball Blogger]

I just picked up numbers from three articles to come up with a possible
Here is my rough count, so far: 9-11 for Democrats, versus 11-13 for Republicans.

California: 5 for the Dems -- almost assured in my opinion.

https://www.ppic.org/blog/how-many-seats-would-democrats-gain-under-californias-mid-decade-redistricting-plan/

In Virginia: 3-5 for the Democrats

https://commonwealthtimes.org/2025/10/29/democracy-backwards-democrats-scramble-to-redraw-virginia-voting-maps-amid-trump-threats/


Missouri: 1 for the Republicans

Texas: 5 for Republicans (If the Mexican American and latino American vote doesn't bite them in the ass.

Indiana: 1 to 2 for Republicans

Ohio: Uncertain legalities, but the gerrymandering would favor Republicans.

Louisiana: Waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on a legality, but they can possibly pick 2 for the Republicans.

Maryland: Could possibly gain 1 for the Democrats, but process appears slow.

Florida: Trying to do another census count to add another seat for the Republicans. Possibly 1

New York: Out of play for 2026, but might have time to do a Constitutional Amendment in time for 2028.

Illinois: Pritzker says it's possible to redistrict in favor of the Democrats, but they don't have a plan yet.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-fight-to-redraw-u-s-house-maps-is-spreading-heres-where-things-stand-in-missouri-and-other-states

North Carolina: 1 for Republicans

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/10/23/new-voting-map-north-carolina-what-redistricting-gerrymandering-means/86838272007/

[lostincalifornia]

1. Texas started this, and California answered the call. I really wish other Democratic states would follow California.

Of course the reality is that Texas should have never been allowed to open this bag of worms, and redistricting should be allowed only after a census every 10 years. but the rules are all changed now because of Texas.

[Metaphorical]

6. Gerrymandering is a stopgap

Realistically we may be moving to a model where redistricting is performed every five years rather than every ten, which, if you are assuming that states are not going to give up a numeric advantage when the opposite side is also playing silly buggers may actually be the only viable alternative. It can also backfire - there is a mathematical limit beyond which gerrymandering might actually weaken the incumbent party, especially if you have significant population change in the interim.

This will ultimately end up in a situation where the Red and Blue states no longer recognize the legal authority of the other, which, given Trump's abnegation of the Constitution puts us into Civil war.

[lostincalifornia]

10. I think we are already in a civil war, and this supreme court has only encouraged it by their rulings on the

Civil RIghts Act, Voting Rights Act, Citizens United, etc.

[kimbutgar]

2. But things are going to get so bad it might turn off repuke voters when his policies affect them personally

Keeping my fingers crossed🤞🤞🤞🤞

[Celerity]

3. The Supreme Court may well really ratfuck us with the re-doing of at least 19 VRA-mandated minority drawn Dem districts

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mid-decade-redistricting-midterms-redrawn-maps-impacts-battle/story?id=126909158

The court is considering a case that could determine whether Louisiana and many other states may have to redraw their maps in a race-blind manner. A decision is expected by the end of June 2026 when the court’s term ends.

Democratic-aligned groups have estimated that Republican-controlled legislatures could then redraw at least 19 Democratic-held seats across southern states.

[Jerry2144]

4. I bet the Texas redistributing will bite them

They had to spread their Republiklan voters a bit thinner to take seats. If the Felon continues to screw his base people over, his base might not show up or might flip sides

[Baitball Blogger]

5. I am counting on my Latino American

Brethren to wake up and smell the cafe con leche.

[Jerry2144]

9. that too

This redistricting could possibly flip TX blue. They've been close. But the Hispanic community hasn't been as strongly anti-R as they could be. Now with the Ice-tapo dissappearing good people - I feel there is going to be a big backlash

[Frasier Balzov]

7. I have a thought. Democrats should win everywhere.

The entire gerrymandering experiment will have been a waste of time.

The People are finished with Trumpism.

[Tribetime]

8. R will gain 2 or 3 in Ohio...but the SC gutting the voting rights act

Could give r 15 to 19 alone