My election predictions

[Polybius]

Since it's an off-year, this will be a fairly short post. These are simply predictions, so don't hate the messenger for anything. I may be wrong. Laugh at me (or congratulate me) later.

NYC Mayor

Not that he had a chance anyway, but Andrew Cuomo's name on the ballot was way off to the bottom right. He will lose, and retire from politics. Zohran Mamdani wins by about 10 points.

Mamdani 47%
Cuomo 37%
Sliwa/others 16%

Virginia Governor

Abigail Spanberger wins with ease. Winsome Earle-Sears doesn't really come close.

Spanberger 54%
Earle-Sears 43%
Others 3%

Virginia Attorney General

Jay Jones will not overcome the texting scandal. Jason Miyares gets a narrow victory.

Miyares 50%
Jones 49%
Others 1%

NJ Governor

Now this one I'll get some heat for, but remember, it's just a prediction! Jack Ciattarelli squeaks it out in the closest major election of the night over Mikie Sherrill.

Ciattarelli 49.5%
Sherrill 49.2%
Others 1.3%

California Proposition 50

This is an easy win for Proposition 50.

Yes 59%
No 41%

[SSJVegeta]

1. Mine for at least NJ and NYC

NJ GOV

Ciaterelli 40%
Sherrill 56%
Others 4

Mayor NYC

Mamdani 65%
Cuomo 27%
Sliwa 5%
Adams 1%

[Polybius]

4. Wow, that sure is optimistic!

We'll know shortly.

[SSJVegeta]

7. You know that I'm nothing if not optimistic lol

Edit: I do think tho that my optimism and reality might be colliding tonight 🤞

[SSJVegeta]

10. 32% reporting: Shes at 58.7 with citarelli at around 40.

58.7 to 40.8

Maybe I shouldve put money on this prediction 🤔

Nate Cohn:

It’s still early but our forecast thinks Sherrill has more outstanding votes than Ciattarelli, and could receive 55% of the final vote.

👀

[SSJVegeta]

11. I don't think I was right about mamdani winning with 65 lol

[Lonestarblue]

2. I sure hope you're wrong about the Virginia AG and NJ governor.

Miyares will try to block everything Democrats want to do for Virginia. And having a Republican governor in NJ would thrill Trump. Ugh!

[SSJVegeta]

3. I have a theory that Mamdanis enthusiasm will bleed into NJ races since parts of NJ have the same ad market.

I think even though he isnt on the ballot turnout will be higher for dem leaning voters in the areas immediately bordering NYC maybe?

[D_Master81]

5. NYC will be a blowout

I just have a feeling that Mamdani will over perform and be closer to 55%. My guess it gets called quickly

[SSJVegeta]

12. I was hoping foe bigger but with about 10% left to count 55 for Mamdani might be right.

[WarGamer]

6. A GOP win in NJ would be a really crappy thing.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

8. Election called for Sherill!!

[Iris]

9. NJ just called for Sherrill

Last edited Thu Nov 6, 2025, 09:47 AM - Edit history (1)

[W_HAMILTON]

13. Comparing your predictions to the actual results, what do you think the actual results tell us?