Pollsters Didn't See the Blue Wave Coming

[applegrove]

Pollsters Didn’t See the Blue Wave Coming

November 5, 2025 at 8:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 127 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/11/05/pollsters-didnt-see-the-blue-wave-coming/

“Once the votes were tallied, Republican candidates weren’t the only ones who fell short in Tuesday’s elections. The pollsters had a bad night, too,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“As a group, firms that publicly release their polls failed to detect the wave that gave a landslide win to Democrats in New Jersey, where their candidate for governor won by 13 points.”

[Moostache]

1. Pollsters are as useful as "journalists" these days...

Neither have acquitted themselves well since that motherfucking escalator fiasco 10 years ago. They have coated themselves in enough shame to last 1,000 years in just that one decade.

[Ocelot II]

2. May it continue to increase.

[Torchlight]

3. I didn't see it coming either. I'd hoped and crossed my fingers and wished for the best

but like lower-case thoughts and prayers, that does little if anything. Thinking the math would remain static and the result on par, I was probably more surprised than even any candidate who lost in an upset.

It does bode well for tomorrow's tomorrow, though.

[Joinfortmill]

4. Deaf, Dumb, and Blind.

[NorthStarStCentrist]

5. Hopefully, this sustains.

This is first and 10 from our own 40, not first and goal.

[yellowcanine]

6. Yes that crack pollster Karl Rove thought pubs would win NJ gov race.

He had it all figured out on his slide rule based on the Latino vote in 2024.

[miyazaki]

7. They can all poll my finger.

[mwmisses4289]

8. Many of the pols had most races being close

3-5 points. So for pollsters the shock is not the polls themselves, but how far off they were.

[Kingofalldems]

9. And the trolls were having a field day.

Posting about the Democrats being hated by the public.

[dsc]

10. actually some pollsters did see this coming

PPP for example has been saying for weeks to ignore reports of trouble in New Jersey. They also forecast Mamdani winning both the primary and the general.