Why Musk will never get his trillion $

[edhopper]

These are the goals he must meet;

The pay package stands to give the CEO the control he sought, with as much as a 25% stake in the company. Unlocking all 12 tranches of Tesla stock, for the largest possible financial reward, will require the company's market cap to reach at least $8.5 trillion and profits of $400 billion, and for the company to meet product goals including 20 million car deliveries, 1 million robots sold, and 1 million robotaxis in operation. (Tesla's market cap is around $1.3 trillion currently and it reported $4.2 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the third quarter.34)

Forget Tesla's terribly overinflated stock with a price to earnings at 400x.
Here are some links about Tesla's income.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-income
https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/TSLA/earnings-history

Tesla income is actually declining. The Cybertruck is one of the biggest failures in car history, Tesla AI is a poor wannabe, and his driverless robotaxi is another promise that will take forever to get to market, if it ever does (he promissed driverless cars by 2020).

Tesla's best year was profits of $ 15 billion, now down to under $10. So with a car brand that is being shunned globally, and products that may never reach market. Tesla has to grow it's sales over 40x for Musk to earn this ridiculous pay out.

Tesla's best year was under 2 million cars sold worldwide. Does anybody see them reaching sales of automakers like Toyota or Honda?

For Tesla to reach the Market Cap in the goals it's current stock price of around $400 would have to reach almost $2000.

Tesla currently has a Price to Earnings ratio of over 300. In comparison, almost all other car makers have a PE of around 10. Nvidia, the AI Chip maker and darling of the stock market has one of around 50. So Tesla's stock price is predicated that it will grow 6 times more than Nvidia, who is actually making something people are buying.

All this money is predicated on a stock price that is based on a cult of personality and the foolishness of the investor class. The real numbers for Tesla income show a different picture.
Given Musk's track record of failed promises, empty concepts and actual failures. I don't see where Tesla pays him a trillion $.


*This is just a general overall view and not a in depth analysis. So my numbers could be off somewhat, but not enough to change my conclusions.

[Historic NY]

1. When China pulls the rug out from under him

he's done.

[edhopper]

6. Yep

Tesla China sales decline extends to seven consecutive months in 2025, with market share plummeting from 16% in 2020 to just 4.4% in August

[Historic NY]

12. Because China has now captured a bigger sale of their affordable EV's to the EU countires.

[link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinese-ev-makers-sell-more-plugin-hybrids-eu-avoid-tariffs-research-firm-says-2025-05-01/]

[link:|https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/china-blows-past-record-for-europe-car-sales-on-hybrid-ev-gains]

[edhopper]

14. That just reinforces

that Tesla exponential growth is not in the future.

[NJCher]

23. I once stayed up all night

reading articles about China's EVs. Musk doesn't stand a chance in the world long term.

[AltairIV]

2. thanks for taking the time to explain that.

[hatrack]

3. He shit on the Tesla brand, then set it on fire . . .

I'd be amazed if the company is even around in ten years.

[Polybius]

5. It will be the worlds biggest car manufacture within 10 years

Bookmark this.

[edhopper]

7. You funny

[Polybius]

9. Well, there's no way to prove either of our points

I hope we're both still on DU in 10 years to see who's right. I will gladly admit it if you are.

[edhopper]

10. I will be glad to be anywhere in 10 years

But we will know in 5 years which way the company is going.
I am curious to see what the coming AI stock crash does to Tesla stock.

[Polybius]

13. Here's to hoping that we'll both be around and prosperous!

I think Musk has most of his AI stuff in X.AI, so I don't know if it will effect Tesla much.

[Bengus81]

27. No...but they might be BOUGHT by the biggest car manufacture within 10 years.

Just for shits and giggles...........

[Polybius]

4. I wouldn't count Tesla out

The Model Y holds the title of the best-selling car globally, and its performance is quite satisfactory (even if Musk can be overly optimistic at times).

Tesla is set to keep growing and maintain its position as the leading company in electric vehicles. For years, there have been predictions of their downfall or obscurity.

[edhopper]

8. Sales have been flat

for 3 years and down this year. Where is the growth?

[Polybius]

11. Here

Tesla Warns of Model Y Price Increase In Coming Days as Demand Surges

Is Tesla doing well in sales?

Yes, Teslas are still selling well, especially in the U.S., where they maintain a dominant market share despite some recent sales declines. The Model Y and Model 3 are extremely popular, frequently outselling many other vehicles. However, Tesla's sales performance is mixed globally, with strong recent U.S. sales due to expiring tax credits but weaker performance in regions like Europe and China due to increased competition.

U.S. market performance
Tesla held a 48.5% share of the U.S. EV market in Q2 2025, selling nearly 144,000 vehicles, far more than any other manufacturer.

The Model Y and Model 3 have been best-sellers, combining to sell more units than the next eight best-selling EVs combined.

While some studies indicate a decrease in sales in certain Democratic-leaning areas of the U.S. due to negative perceptions of the CEO, Tesla's overall sales still show a strong market position.

[edhopper]

15. This was a one off

because Trump ended the EV tax credit.
Let's see what the next 2 quarters look like.

Read something that isn't a Tesla PR release.

https://www.theverge.com/news/790046/tesla-q3-2025-sales-production-delivery

And it's declining sales.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/tesla_inc_tsla_total_deliveries_quarterly

[EdmondDantes_]

17. If the growth was spurred by the expiration of the tax credits

That's not sustainable growth. In the first half of the year their sales were down 24% from 2024. In the 3rd quarter, they were up 7%, but that's the end of the tax credit.

Musk has been selling his faulty full self driving software for years without delivering on it and they are still less safe than others because they refuse to use lidar.

[Bluestocking]

20. That was for 2024

Before Musk came out as a Nazi. It is currently number 4 in 2025 so far.

[Shermann]

16. He's already halfway there on paper

His fortunes are tied to that of his companies. But, if he were able to divest and then reinvest that 500 billion in the S&P 500, he could realistically get there in 10 years just sitting on the couch. Billionaires never seem to retire so being in his mid 50's I wouldn't count him out.

[edhopper]

22. It's not about his net worth

which is all tied to Tesla's over inflated stock price, BTW
It's the pay Tesla says he will get if they grow to 10 x their current size.

[Diraven]

30. Sort of

The negotiations will now begin where these incentives will be continually reduced until Musk can eventually reach them without growing Tesla at all.

[JMCKUSICK]

18. Thanks Edhopper,

Nice to get some context to these numbers.

[popsdenver]

19. Something that I have noticed

along with others I have spoken to about Tesla.......are their drivers. We used to all agree that BMW drivers were BY FAR the #1 most inconsiderate, aggressive, and arrogant drivers on the roads......However, we have agreed that we are definitely seeing Tesla drivers challenging that #1 spot, there are just less of them......

[Bluestocking]

21. That's because after all the shit Musk caused

think about the type of person who would still drive a Tesla.

[littlemissmartypants]

25. I can vouch for that...

It's bad enough driving in New Hanover County. It's a place where every day on average there are around a half dozen serious car accidents.

Biking fatalities and car crashes and just general driver insanity land it statically in the top five most dangerous places to drive in the state of NC with a consistent pattern of high collision rates.

Interstate 40 is like a race track. The speed limit is 70 mph but most drivers do 80-85 and it's so congested everyone is forced to keep pace or get run over. I've been harassed and forced to move many times by aggressive drivers.

Almost every single one in a Tesla sedan. Once they pass, if they can race ahead, they will floor it. Most likely just to prove a point. Always young white guy drivers. Clearly assh*les.

[popsdenver]

38. Sounds almost like.

the Denver Metro Area..........it is getting insane around here.......My two grandkids are banned from driving on any Interstate or Highway around Denver..........

And the winter with snow is fast coming on.......I can hardly wait........

Seems this is the least of worries...........Screwing with ATC is much much more frightening.........

[Attilatheblond]

24. Coming to a deserted dealership near you: The TESLA Edsel

[William Seger]

26. The more that Tesla autopilot is used, the more apparent its fatal flaw will become

Unlike cars that use more sophisticated technology, it relies on visual recognition from cameras, which is not reliable when visibility is not. I predict this will catch up with them:

[ToxMarz]

28. Musk likely won't ever receive his $Trillion payout

But he's already received much of what he wanted in public perception. He's all about smoke and mirrors. He has been awarded a trillion dollar pay package. No one will ever forget that and he can always tout that, regardless of whether he collects. It's like Trumps fake Time magazine covers and fake FIFA Peace Prizes.

[Mblaze]

29. They might be banking on the new iteration of Tesla

That I have been seeing videos of on Youtube. They use a new battery that is made from aluminum rather than lithium. They are claiming a 500 mile range and that the battery "will outlast the car" which could be a good thing or a bad thing 😀. They are planning to sell it for $10,200+ globally which probably translates to $20,000 in the US. That is a very reasonable cost if the car works and actually gets produced.

Then they would just have to overcome Elon loathing.

[edhopper]

34. Will not happen

more Musk BS.

https://evworld.com/article.php?id=293&slug=tesla-model-2-fact-vs-fiction

[Mblaze]

37. Thanks. It figures.

[flvegan]

31. Epstein Files (allegedly) Elon's cult.

It's a shit car brand with a shit Dollar Store Hitler at the helm. For reasons unknown to me, the Stans will continue to funnel money to someone who literally tossed a couple sieg heils on live tv, propping up his baseless lies (derp, we's gunna have that kickass new roadster on April 1st, derp dee dee derp...again) and rewarding his fascist bullshit.

Release the Epstein files!

[flashman13]

32. This is a well reasoned commentary on the situation.

[Fil1957]

33. 10 years ago, before he went crazy, that goal might have been possible. But Tesla, once at the forefront of EV

technology has fallen behind, and nowadays its cars are rather dull and stodgy compared to others.

[edhopper]

35. Selling cars that haven't been redesigned

for over 7 years.

2018


2025

[edhopper]

36. Musk has overseen the biggest failure in the auto industry

in decades. He built a plant at the cost of $2 to $3 billion that could produce over 250,000 trucks a year.
To date they have sold 16,000, with sales declining and owners finding they can't even trade them in. It will be gone within a year or two.

But they expect him to grow the company 10 fold?!?

[artemisia1]

39. Tesla only survives because the FAR superior Chinese EV vehicles are effectively prohibited from sales in the US. /nt