Could somebody check my math re: GOP majority?

[Fiendish Thingy]

MTG is leaving in January (not sure what the timeline for a special election to replace her would be), and if the Dem wins the special election in Tennessee in December, won’t that mean the House will in Dem control once MTG leaves?

[RockRaven]

1. No.

Dems got to 218 for the discharge petition with 4 Repugs. So that means we have 214. It will be 215 when the TX-18 Dem v Dem run-off for the special election happens, whenever that is.

So that leaves 220. There were two other empty seats before MTG's announcement (not sure when they are getting filled). That puts Repugs at 218. After MTG makes it 217.

They still have a majority.

And also Dems will be losing a seat soon (next week or so), before MTG leaves, anyway.

[rampartd]

2. 435 total

214 - 220 counting Grijalva but not the upcoming tennessee winner.

Kat could make 215 and the open GA seat leaves 219. or van hooten coukd winn in tenn
Still a repub majority if i counted right.

or van hooten could win in tenn, making it 220-214

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. So all the reporting that republicans only have a two seat margin is false? Nt

[rampartd]

7. false, or misleading.

we needed 4 to vote on epstein; that would have been 218-216.

i might be off.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. I forgot about Sherril resigning to become governor

And there is still a Dem vacancy in TX and the one in TN.

So, Republicans currently have 219 (minus Greene will make 218- the minimum needed for a majority)
Dems have 214 (minus Sherrill makes 213)

Plus the two vacancies in TX (likely blue) and TN (solid red in the past, but not so solid now)

Greene and Sherrill’s seats should safe red/blue, but I’m not sure how long they will be vacant until a special election.

And there is the Dem who just got indicted for fraud - I expect she will be gone before the midterms.

So, while Dems, even under the best circumstances of winning in TN, cannot get a majority yet, if one more republican resigns, or switches parties or other wise leaves the caucus after Greene resigns, they would drop below the minimum needed for a majority.

Not sure how congress functions if neither party has a true majority.

[karynnj]

13. The number needed for majority is lower when there are vacant seats

For example 217 to 215 is still a majority for the party with 217. What I don't know is what happens with 217 to 217 with one vacancy.

[karynnj]

12. No, they are talking votes, not Congresspeople

By "losing 2 votes, they mean 2 vote with the Democrats, so the vote is a change of 4 in the Democrats' favor.

[lees1975]

3. With the election of Adelita Grijalva in Arizona

the Dems currently have 214 to the Repugs 218. MTG leaving drops the Repugs to 217, and if Dems win the Tennessee seat that brings the Dems to 215, 216 if they can pick up Sylvester Turner's old seat in Texas in January.

[Coldwater]

5. Three districts are presently without representation,

with special elections pending.

4 now that MTG is leaving politics.

Even If we took MTG heavily red district we'd still be one vote short of a majority.

218 Republican
217 Democrats.

[lees1975]

6. Let's see, I thought I included all but one of the vacant seats.

The one in Tennessee isn't a sure thing, the one in Texas that Turner held before he died is. With Grijalva in, that's 214 Dems, to 218 Repugs, and when MTG leaves, is 217. Is there another special election pending somewhere? So that would give us 217 to 216 iewf we get the tennessee seat and Turner's old seat.

But I think we will see a few more gop defections soon. Maybe enough to get rid of Johnson.

[Coldwater]

8. I'm pretty sure there are currently 219 republicans in the house

which would make MTG defection 218

No matter what the final numbers will be, it will be virtually impossible for the house to pass any sort of legislation.

But with a democratic majority - trump is finished

[malaise]

11. A few of them may croak

😀

[SSJVegeta]

9. 214 to 219 currently

215 to 219 if Dems win the TN special election in December. 216 to 218 when MTG resigns and after the TX Special election that Dems are almost certain to win. If MTG's seat somehow flips it'll be D217 to R 218. But with Sherrill swearing in as Governor in January the Dems will be at 216 to R 218 until her seat is filled in April turning it into 217 to 218 if MTGs seat somehow goes Dem.

But with Massie, the pro-release-the-files caucus would basically be able to run the show through discharge petition.