TN 7- based on current partial returns, Behn is overperforming 2024 D results by around 20%

[SSJVegeta]

Last edited Wed Dec 3, 2025, 02:33 AM - Edit history (3)

If this trend sticks, she might win. 🤞

(Green -R, won by 21.5%)


Im optimistic, but Nate Cohn notes that early votes are going to be substantially more D leaning than the votes counted later. So we will see.

Edit: with most votes counted, Behn loses by about 8-10%. Still is an overperformance to 2024 by 10-14% depending on the final outcome without even near the level of fundraising folks like Weil and Valmont pulled in the FL specials.

I am looking forward to The Great Dummymander of 2026.

[MustLoveBeagles]

1. That's good news

She's doing better than I thought she would.

[SSJVegeta]

3. First returns in montgomery show her ahead by 3%

Green won it by 20%

Im almost ready to call it TBH

[SSJVegeta]

46. Stupid hopium

Helluva drug

[Tribetime]

10. She is soaring on predictit right now for whatever

Thats worth ..but if its less than 10% Michael Steele says its a wrap on the midterms...it might be much closer than that

[FBaggins]

23. That didn't last long

She just crashed to 1-2% after briefling climbing to over 20% odds.

if its less than 10% Michael Steele says its a wrap on the midterms

That (along with a silly hit piece on his wife this morning) were what dashed my hopes. Losing by single digits would be arguably a good sign nationally... but moving the goalposts like that was a sign that we knew we wouldn't win

[SheltieLover]

2. Excellent!

[Demsrule86]

4. No returns from Nashville...either

[SSJVegeta]

5. I mean unless im crazy I cant see van epps making up a huge amount of ground with 50% of the vote left in the reddest

Counties

[mr715]

6. Sorry to be pessimistic

It looks like Rep. Behn will perform extremely well, but it does not look like she is on track to win outright.

[SSJVegeta]

7. If this trend sticks she will

Still a big if.

[mvd]

8. What are you basing this on?

The other posts say the trends make a win possible.

[SSJVegeta]

13. Shes overperformingnin Davidson County by almost 50%??

[mr715]

26. It is possible.

It isn't a lock. Lots of variables.

[azureblue]

50. she should demand a recount

Stealing / losing / not counting votes is a time honored GOP tradition. Use the GOP "stolen election" meme and demand a recount..

[Boo1]

12. If last months results

weren't enough......Democrats winning (or even getting close) in this district should be a five alarm fire for Republicans.

[a kennedy]

14. NYTimes......D-Behn 37,556.....R-Van Epps 33,185 44%of the vote in.

[SSJVegeta]

16. I think it might be over

Unless she ends up simply losing the remaining votes in Nashville...

[mucifer]

18. Only 42% of the votes are in

[mucifer]

21. Not what Chris Hayes is saying on MSNBC

[SSJVegeta]

24. Its actually flipped. I also kinda misread the chart.

Closer to 49 for Behn and 51 for Van Epps.

Which given the current results, he would need more than that to win. And the estimation is quickly favoring towards Behn.

[SSJVegeta]

22. Not in red counties

Thats probably closer to 65% or so.

Van Epps is even more behind Green in his margins in those deep red counties than when the counting started.

[a kennedy]

17. Yeeehaaa. I wanna kick his freaking ass!!!!!

[James48]

25. DEAD HEAT!

2 of 14 counties in.

It’s a dead heat!

R- 45,764
D- 45,287

Returns live:
https://elections.tn.gov/categories/us-house/offices

[mucifer]

27. Nope now it's not a dead heat at all

[Ellipsis]

28. Define...

[mucifer]

29. he's now up by 6000. Click on the link.

[Ellipsis]

32. Following NY Times.

Davidson County.... only 55% in.

I'm certainly not calling you out... but I'd like to see Davidison totals.

[Jack Valentino]

34. Ah, The Republican's fake ballot truck must have arrived!

[mucifer]

35. It's possible someone "found" some votes trump asked them to find. We will never know.

[FBaggins]

30. 2/3 of the vote in. Down by seven

Projected to lose by six.

[Ellipsis]

37. I think you hit the number.

[SSJVegeta]

45. 8.5

The early votes and same day votes were like night and day

[InstantGratification]

31. He is probably going to win it but this is an earthquake in Redville

Winning by a quarter of a percent in a district that Dumpster Fire won by over 20 points and that is so reliably red that they don't really have to campaign??? That is gonna rattle cages in red circles. There WILL be fallout from this one. If they didn't believe the results in the other elections, no matter how much they deny it publicly, this scares the hell out of them. It isn't a shot across the bow warning, it is a direct hit scoring serious damage. It didn't sink their battleship, but the motherfuckers FELT this one big time!!!!

[D_Master81]

33. I've never thought this was realistic

I was just hoping she could keep it between 5-10 to show that anything below R+12-15 might be in play. Honestly these numbers even in defeat would be fantastic

[LymphocyteLover]

42. she did seem to do that

[SSJVegeta]

44. Think about it too. She raised a fraction of what the D candidates pulled in Florida

And had almost the same overperformance.


I think if she raised at least another couple mil she wouldve won. She had a good message that was drowned out by the GOP superpac cash cows.

[a kennedy]

36. Nope, not gonna take this seat.

NYT’s 78% of votes in….Van Epps 52%…… Behn. 46%. Shy’s NOT gonna win this election. But DAMN, SHE DID HER BEST IN AGAWD DAMN RED AREA.

[2 Meow Momma]

38. NBC called it for van epps

[IzzaNuDay]

39. Yeah, just saw that, VanEpps ahead at the moment by 10K votes

shame on them

[2 Meow Momma]

41. A lot of Davidson county (Nashville) is still out so the final total may be better than that.

[evolves]

40. It's over, unfortunately.

This state cares more about funneling money into the pockets of crooks who will strip their healthcare, ruin their environment, and keep them in poverty.
At least they are “owning the libs…”

[SSJVegeta]

43. She closed the margin from 22% to maybe 8%

Which is a 14% overperformance?

Rs are on track to turn as many of their red state districts into R+10-15%.

Midterms will be fun.

[mr715]

47. This is make their redistricting efforts very, very costly nt

[SSJVegeta]

48. I'm very excited for it.

[Emile]

49. She ran on a Bernie platform in a very red district,

and overperformed. The message is, the democratic party needs to run left nationwide.

[leftstreet]

51. +1

[progressoid]

52. Bernie is popular with the working class.

Democrats need to take note.