About the percent swing in Tennessee

[edhopper]

If this is indicative of a general trend, then the gerrymandered districts in Red States are in trouble. To make more Red districts the Repukes have to dilute their votes to spread out the GOP voters. If they are losing GOP votes, then new districts that they think they will win based on the last election totals will not hold up for them. The more they spread out GOP voters the closer the margins are.

[Wiz Imp]

1. Extrapolating to the whole country...

There were 33 seats which Republicans won in 2024 by 13% or less. This result suggests that all of those 33 seats are in play for Democrats. And that doesn't account for seats where gerrymandering may have narrowed the gap to under 13%.

If Democrats were to win all 33 of these seats, it would give Democrats a 248-187 majority (61 seats!). Even winning just half of these (17), the Democratic majority would be 232 to 203 (29 seats).

[Just_Vote_Dem]

2. Excellent point

Their gerrymandering may wind up biting them in the ass!