TN-05: If TN Democrats perform like they did Tuesday, Congressional District 5 stays GOP

[RandySF]

The vote total for state Rep. Aftyn Behn in the Tennessee 7th Congressional District race against now-U.S. Rep. Matt Van Epps show Democrats have narrowed their deficit to Republicans but not enough to flip any seats, an analysis of election data by the Lookout finds.

The racet to watch in the 2026 election is Tennessee Congressional District 5, currently held by Columbia Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles. He’s won about 56% of the vote in the past two elections, the lowest of any Tennessee Republican who won their U.S. House race.

Behn performed better in every county in District 7 in 2025 when compared to the Democratic candidates in 2024 or 2022. But if the same shifts in Nashville, Williamson County and rural counties that happened in District 7 on the Dec. 2 special election occurred in the 5th district, the Democratic candidate would lose by 4 to 7 percentage points.

Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University, said based on his look at the election data, he came up with a similar number, but cautioned that the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away and a lot could happen.


https://tennesseelookout.com/2025/12/08/if-tn-democrats-perform-like-they-did-tuesday-andy-ogles-would-still-hold-his-house-seat/

[SSJVegeta]

1. There wont be any across the board margin that Democrsts perform at

While it is likely they on average overperform 2024 numbers, even if that average is somewhat high (say 15-20%), there will still be lopsided results across districts. We will see some overperformance by 30 points and others by 5 or 10. Regardless, Texas and Indiana(if their map passes) are effectively giving Dem challengers a 10 point starting advantage in most districts, in order to take away the advantages of a small handful of Democrats. Risky business in a year like 2026...

[Boo1]

4. The words you're looking for

Is variation.

And yes, cutting buffers in districts to take advantage of a demographic shift that might not exist is very risky.

[SSJVegeta]

5. Thanks.

And 💯

But hey maybe it'll work out for them somehow.

[Prairie Gates]

2. TN 7 was proof of concept for the gerrymandering that's happening everywhere

Anybody coming out of that election enthusiastic for Dem chances in 2026 needs a serious reality check.

[dsc]

3. that over performance, if it happened in NC

would do poorly Congressionally (we would likely keep Davis' seat but gain no others) but at the state legislative level it would be very good indeed. We would go from a House one seat shy of a super majority and a Senate that is super majority in favor of the GOP to one in which we would control both houses. Then we could redraw the districts to make them fairer. Not sure the extent to which that overperformance helps in TN though.

[SSJVegeta]

6. Do you mean with the new NC map or current one?

[dsc]

7. New

under the current map we would be a cinch to win Davis but gain nothing else.

[pwb]

8. If the pukes cut Medicaid it will be a different story?

A lot will happen before the next election. The whole country could turn Blue IMO.