Johnson's Career Crisis & The House G.O.P. Exodus
House Republicans got everything they could have asked for in 2024—not just a powerful (albeit small) majority in their own chamber, but also control of the Senate and the presidency. Still, that governing trifecta has been less productive and more acrimonious than anyone hoped: The electoral high has long since worn off, replaced by stalled legislation, a capricious and vindictive White House, and the possibility of a midterm beating that could relegate them to the minority. These days, many House Republicans are wondering if their future includes another term in Congress at all.
In fact, multiple Republican lawmakers and aides have told me that an exodus of House Republicans is likely in the coming weeks—one estimate puts the number as high as 20 new announcements—with most retirements expected from members in safe Republican seats and thus unlikely to imperil the majority (the political environment or Trump could do that). Twenty-three of the 39 House members who have already announced plans to retire or run for other offices are Republicans, on track to easily surpass the number of exits during the last Congress, when 21 Republicans were among the 45 House members who left at the end of their terms.
Unlike the silver tsunami of retirements on the Democratic side, the Republican stampede for the exits is primarily a testament to political discontent. Most of the Democrats retiring are octogenarians or have served at least two decades, including Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, Jerry Nadler, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Dwight Evans, Nydia Velázquez, and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But many of the retiring Republicans have not served that long, and they aren’t ready for Brandywine or Green Grove. Among those who have already announced they won’t seek another term, Rep. Jodey Arrington, chair of the Budget Committee, is 53 and has served almost 10 years; Rep. Troy Nehls is 57 and was first elected in 2020; and Rep. Morgan Luttrell just turned 50 and is only in his second term.
https://archive.ph/5IWKt#selection-1605.0-1653.47
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