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Maddowblog-Raising the economic bar far too high, Trump and his team set themselves up for failure
It’s widely understood that officials should under-promise and over-deliver. On economic growth, the White House has got it backward.
Trump’s Commerce secretary said to expect 6% economic growth. Trump himself floated 20% to 25% growth.
— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2025-12-11T19:32:03.276Z
As an economic matter, this is bonkers. As a political matter, it’s worse. www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...
https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/raising-the-economic-bar-far-too-high-trump-and-his-team-set-themselves-up-for-failure
This was unwise. GDP growth in the U.S. had only reached 6% once in the previous half-century, and that was because of a dramatic one-time drop in interest rates in 1984. Trump had set the bar unrealistically high, and to the surprise of no one, he failed to reach his own stated standard: Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, annual economic growth did not top 3% during his first term. In fact, in 2017 and 2019, when the president tried to tell the public the economy was the best it had ever been, GDP growth was 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.
Having failed to meet these unrealistic goals previously, Trump and his team have learned their lesson.
No, I’m just kidding. They’ve learned nothing and are making the exact same mistakes.
...A day earlier, at a White House event, his boss went considerably further.
Annual GDP growth, Trump said, “should be able to be 20% or 25%,” adding, “I don’t know why it can’t be.”
I realize that economic policy has never been this president’s strong suit, but never in recorded history has the United States ever seen 25% annual growth. In 1942, when domestic production roared at the start of World War II, GDP growth reached nearly 19% — and we haven’t reached double digits since, even during economic booms.....
Just as importantly, as a political matter, he has a reason not to raise expectations like this. If, for example, the U.S. had 3% GDP growth every year during his second term, that would be evidence of a healthy economy. But according to Trump and his team, it would also deserve to be seen as a disappointment, since Lutnick is pointing to 6% growth, while the president himself pitches 20% to 25% growth.
There is such a thing as expectation management. These guys are flunking it in embarrassing fashion.
Having failed to meet these unrealistic goals previously, Trump and his team have learned their lesson.
No, I’m just kidding. They’ve learned nothing and are making the exact same mistakes.
Lutnick: "I think under President Trump you're gonna see the economy grow 6%"
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-11T13:22:44.764Z
...A day earlier, at a White House event, his boss went considerably further.
Trump says he doesn't know why America can't achieve 25 percent annual economic growth
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-10T20:32:26.617Z
Annual GDP growth, Trump said, “should be able to be 20% or 25%,” adding, “I don’t know why it can’t be.”
I realize that economic policy has never been this president’s strong suit, but never in recorded history has the United States ever seen 25% annual growth. In 1942, when domestic production roared at the start of World War II, GDP growth reached nearly 19% — and we haven’t reached double digits since, even during economic booms.....
Just as importantly, as a political matter, he has a reason not to raise expectations like this. If, for example, the U.S. had 3% GDP growth every year during his second term, that would be evidence of a healthy economy. But according to Trump and his team, it would also deserve to be seen as a disappointment, since Lutnick is pointing to 6% growth, while the president himself pitches 20% to 25% growth.
There is such a thing as expectation management. These guys are flunking it in embarrassing fashion.
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