CNN Data Guru Reveals Why Dems Have '100 Percent' Chance of Winning Midterms

[babylonsister]

CNN Data Guru Reveals Why Dems Have ‘100 Percent’ Chance of Winning Midterms
by Adam Lynch | January 14, 2026 - 6:23am

— from Alternet

CNN data analyst Harry Enten reports Democrats are enjoying a rare double-digit lead ahead of the midterms that is all but guaranteeing them control of the House after November.

“Take a look at party identification — those who identify as Democrats or Republicans — and look at the margin that Democrats have now versus where it was a year ago,” said Enten, referring to young adults in the "Gen Z" cohort between the ages of 18 and 29. “It goes from plus six points in 2024 to plus 20 points [in 2025].”

snip//

In 2024, Trump had Generation Z’s approval by plus ten points, and had made gains among Generation Z going from 2020 to 2024.

“Now he is 32 points underwater,” said Enten. “That is a 42-point swing in less than a year. So, what we're seeing in party identification isn't just staying there. It's moving over and affecting how Generation Z feels about the president himself.”

“It's a stampede,” said CNN host Erin Burnett. “It's a tsunami!”

more...

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/adam-lynch/115951/cnn-data-guru-reveals-why-dems-have-100-percent-chance-of-winning-midterms

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Widespread, universal suffering unifies the people against Trump.

The Democrats could rename themselves the Radical Commie-Socialist Rat Bastards and still win the midterms easily.

[aocommunalpunch]

12. Just don't mention anything negative about

The gestapo. The tsunami is apparently delicate AF about that.

[mn9driver]

2. Good news

Assuming of course that the midterms are allowed to happen without interference. I would like to think that is a given, but based on everything that is happening, I’m not so sure.

[newdeal2]

3. And yet, I'm not convinced

Yes, I feel good about our chances. But these are not normal times and who knows what stunts Trump and Republican governors will pull to bring that percentage down to zero.

[dalton99a]

4. Republicans will go to extreme lengths to prevent this from happening.

Assume nothing.

[DFW]

5. Mr. Ducks should remember what Stalin said, and that Republicans are essebtially Stalinists

"Enten" is German for "ducks."

No matter how optimistically we may want to interpret selective data in January, it doesn't have a bearing on what we will hear the day after election day. Soviet dictator Stalin is reputed to have observed: "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." We were shown in no uncertain terms how correct that was after the 2000 election, and again in 2016. Will the Republicans cheat again? Is water wet? What matters is not "if," but what we do to prevent them WHEN they use fraudulent means to flip congressional and gubernatorial seats in close races that we really won, but somehow flipped Republican in "surprise upsets."

I'm sure that the famous closet in Wausau, Wisconsin that produced the necessary "forgotten" ballots that put Republicans over the top in the past is once again filled to the brim. The Diebold vote counting machine that gave Bush 3000 votes in a precinct with 600 registered voters in 2004 is probably still in use in Ohio. Max Cleland found out in Gerogia two years after Al Gore did in Florida in 2000 and two years before John Kerry did in Ohio in 2004. If the USA is so enthralled with its death penalty, maybe it should be applied to treasonous acts like this. Maybe THEN Mr. Ducks will get his utopian Democratic tsunami. Otherwise, I'd count on another battle royal in which not all "surprise upsets" will go our way.

[dalton99a]

7. +1

[leftstreet]

13. +1

[WinstonSmith4740]

17. OK, I'm NOT flaming the Dems here!

BUT, Stalin's quote about those who count the votes decide elections always comes to mind with these bastards. Trump pretty much admitted it when he commented on how he won Pennsylvania.

I remember thinking back in 2004, that the Dem were making the same damn mistake that they did in 2000. The person responsible for organizing elections and counting the votes in Florida in 2000 (Katherine Harris), and Ohio is 2004 (Ken Blackwell) also served as W's freaking campaign manager in that state. The post election stories of lost (& found when necessary) ballots was frightening, along with not enough and/or malfunctioning voting machines in Democratic districts.

Why does stuff like this keep happening? Does anyone REALLY think that rat bastard took ALL the swing states in 2024? And how did McConnell, Collins, and Lady Lindsay all manage to come back from being behind in all polling right before the 2022 elections to winning by the exact same margin? And I think those were all Diebold machines. Why do we allow machines owned by companies whose owners are supporters of either candidate to be used at all?

I am SO tired of "measured and reasonable" responses. We have a lot of young guns in Congress right now who can bring the fire. Schumer needs to pass the gavel and let them. Because as long as the Rethugs know that Dems will listen to the freaking consultants and fold winning hands, they'll never stop.

I've been saying this for a while now, First of all, Democrats need to fire every damn "consultant" they have and hire some damn SALESPEOPLE!!! There are still too many people who think the ACA and Obamacare are 2 different things. It was one of the Democrats biggest accomplishments, and they had no idea how to sell that victory to the public. People thought $35 insulin was done by Trump, not Biden. The Dems should have the likes of Frost, AOC, Crockett, & Raskin (to name the obvious) in front of cameras every damned day calling out the cowardice of the media and the constant lies of republicans. Secondly, we need to use paper ballots for the next few cycles. We're adults...we don't have to know who won 2 minutes after the polls close, and you can't hack paper. Closely monitored voting & counting locales shouldn't be an issue.

[PCIntern]

6. And Hillary had a 98% chance of winning at one point

[Prairie Gates]

8. Oh for godssake

[CanonRay]

9. If there are midterms

which I doubt.

[BannonsLiver]

10. Very inspiring thread.

[ChicagoTeamster]

11. They said that about Millenials. Who will show up to vote? Old boomers always vote. Most GenX didn't vote til mid 20s

[calimary]

15. All the more reason why we ALL need to VOTE.

And do so at EVERY possible opportunity.

[Fil1957]

14. That is impossible. A 100% chance of winning the midterms, means they've already been won. The chance may be vey high

they will win, but it can't be 100% until the votes are counted.

[gulliver]

16. There's no better way to suppress turnout than this

There are now almost no good polls. They've become, in effect, paid content for the 24x7 talking heads industry.

To win, we need to act like we're losing and offer the people good, old-fashioned leadership on core issues.