#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026)

[In It to Win It]

The Redistrict Network (mirror 🤖 )
‪@redistrictnet.bluesky.bot‬

#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026).

Forecast prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University

#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026).

Forecast prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University

— The Redistrict Network (mirror 🤖) (@redistrictnet.bluesky.bot) 2026-01-27T14:50:21Z

The projections are derived using simple linear extrapolation using data from previous Vintage years in addition to 2025.

— The Redistrict Network (mirror 🤖) (@redistrictnet.bluesky.bot) 2026-01-27T15:14:12Z

— The Redistrict Network (mirror 🤖) (@redistrictnet.bluesky.bot) 2026-01-27T17:14:11Z

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. The bigger a state gets, the more likely it turns blue

Or at least becomes a purple swing state.

[Celerity]

5. TX and FL show that is definitely not always the case.

[In It to Win It]

6. The crybabies could have stayed where they were 🙄

I welcome solid Democratic voters to Florida.

OR... I'd take the crybabies in Florida if that means draining enough of them from other red states that they become flip opportunities for Dems, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. They will reach a tipping point that gerrymandering cannot prevent

Up till now, aggressive gerrymandering has kept republicans in power in TX and FL, but if new arrivals from CA, OR, and other blue states outnumber those from red states (and statistically they should, since the map does not show any solid blue states gaining enough population to result in gains in house seats in 2030), especially if those blue state migrants move outside the dense big city hubs, the political demographics will eventually change.

Although I know of two groups of my own extended family who moved from CA to TX and TN because they wanted to live in more conservative, less “woke” states, that cannot be the only reason people are moving- the lower cost of housing is also likely a significant factor as well (it was for the family members who moved to TX).

The demographic shift may not occur by 2030, but as those interstate migrants have kids, and those kids grow up, and the percentage of POC in TX, FL and other current red states grows, a shift is inevitable.

[Celerity]

8. TX perhaps (but not all that soon). FL is harder to turn as RWers are pouring in, in far greater numbers than non RWers.

Many non RWers are leaving FL as well, and in greater numbers than RWers are leaving.

Also the Latino population (as I have been talking about here on DU for ages) overall in the US has the fastest growing (in terms of raw numbers) religious group in America: evangelical Latinos, who trend far more RW than traditional Catholic Latinos do.

The US, since at least 5, 6, or so years ago, is the first nation (in terms of nations with a substantial amount of Latinos) in history to have a majority of Latinos who are NON Catholics, and every year the percentage of those non Catholics who are evangelicals surges upwards.

I have posted so many times on this, often in a lot of detail.

[SSJVegeta]

2. Good news since Texas is probably going blue in 2028.

[The Revolution]

3. Uncap the House

We can't just keep cramming more and more people into ever larger districts.

[Celerity]

4. That is a potentially disastrous 26 NET seat/EV possible swing against Dems in terms of the House & Electoral College

starting in 2032.