2028 Presidential Nominations polls

[Polybius]

2028 Presidential Nominations

Vice President JD Vance continues to hold a dominant lead for the 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination. He leads among likely Republican primary voters with 46.0%, up 1 points from the prior survey conducted in mid-December. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails in a distant second place with just 9.5%, with Health and Human Services Secretary tied with Secretary of State Marco Rubio for third at 6.8%. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has been most open about his aspirations for the nomination in 2028, is stagnant at just 3.9%.

Among those “Certain to vote” for the nomination, Vice President Vance’s support increases to 48.7% compared to only a 0.1% gain for Governor DeSantis to 9.6%. The gain is even more pronounced among those “Extremely Enthusiastic” to vote, where the vice president takes a commanding 52.8% to 9.2% lead over the governor.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris also maintained her lead for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination, though it could hardly be considered a dominant lead compared to current Vice President JD Vance across the aisle. Harris edges out California Governor Gavin Newsom, 31.4% to 22.2%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails in third at 11.7% and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surpassed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for fourth, 6.4% to 6.1%.

https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/democrats-solidify-lead-over-republicans-on-first-2026-generic-ballot/

While I'm not surprised that Vance leads the GOP field, Harris overtaking Newsom is wild to me. Obviously though, whoever wins our nomination will be great.

[Jilly_in_VA]

1. Thisngs will change before then

They always do. Besides, it's a long way to 2028. And seems longer with Shitler in the White House dirtying it up.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. None of the people named in the poll will be their party's nominee

It’s all name recognition at this point.

I think it’s far more likely the Dems nominate someone like Andy Beshear or Chris Murphy, and the Republicans will have to thread the needle with someone who is not MAGA but also not a Never Trumper, like Glen Youngkin.

It will be glorious entertainment to watch the primary debates between Rubio, Vance, Cruz and anyone else willing to be the GOP’s sacrificial lamb for 2028.

I hope Noem runs.

[leftstreet]

5. LOL oh yes please

I hope Noem runs.

[Polybius]

12. If history repeats itself, Vance will get the GOP nomination

Every sitting VP that ran for President got his or her Party's nomination.

1960: Nixon
1968: Humphrey
1988: Bush*
2000: Gore
2024: Harris

*Only one that won the General Election.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. If Vance gets the nomination, it will be as a sacrificial lamb

But I think the competition to be Trump’s successor will be fierce, and I think donor dollars (other than a few tech bros) will go to other candidates.

I have read that there is only one other elected Republican hated more than Vance by other elected Republicans- Ted Cruz.

[Polybius]

16. I think Vance will easily be viewed as the successor to Trump by MAGA doners

While he lacks charisma, he is smarter than most (all?) of the MAGA's running, and is a better debater too. Yeah, I know that's not saying much.

[SheilaAnn]

3. I wish Adam Schiff would put his name in the ring.

[walkingman]

4. Demographically, We seem to be pretty evenly split. With two exceptions (race/age)?

From a pure Demographic perspective :

Voter turnout by Gender - Women voters have outnumbered and outvoted men in every presidential election since 1980, including election 2024. Avg 63% to 59%

Voters by race/ethnicity(approx) - White 58%, Hispanic or Latino 20%, Black 12%, Asian 7%, Other 3%

Ideological Breakdown (2025): 28% Liberal, 33% Moderate, 35% Conservative.

Likely voters by age (2024): 65+ 75%, 45-64 70%, 35-44 64%, 25-34 57%, 18-24 45%

Edited to add: Hillary should have won?

[poli-junkie]

6. I like Mark Kelly.

[CTyankee]

7. How about a Chris Murphy/Mark Kelly ticket?

Chris is young, nice looking and comes across as a solid guy. Kelly adds a tough fighter AND an astronaut. What more could you want on a ticket?

[poli-junkie]

10. Reverse: Kelly as prez

[Ars Longa]

11. Kelley P/ Murphy VP +1

[Nanjeanne]

8. It means nothing except for name recognition.

[Bettie]

9. We can't have a woman on our ticket

Misogyny is being ramped up daily in this fucking country.

There is no way a woman can win at this point, probably ever, because too many people in this country hate women.

And the masses will believe any stupid thing that the talking heads scream about if the candidate is a woman.

I no longer believe in the country I was born in, that I've lived my entire life in. I always knew that there were problems (racism, misogyny, economic oppression among others) but I never thought they were insurmountable.

I've lost hope. There is no future in which my kids have a decent life.

[Blasphemer]

13. I think Newsom will prove to have a DeSantis problem. Not sure people like him enough.

He's too blatantly ambitious to pull off whatever version of himself he is spinning on a given day.

[oasis]

15. ABC

Anybody But Cruz