TX-SEN: New poll finds Jasmine Crockett, Ken Paxton leading in their primary bids for U.S. Senate

[RandySF]

Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of early voting on Feb. 17.

In a statewide sample of 550 likely Republican primary voters conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, Paxton led incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 7 percentage points. Across the aisle, a similar poll of 550 likely Democratic primary voters shows Crockett running ahead of state Rep. James Talarico by 8 percentage points. The survey findings are a change from recent polls that found both races to be neck-and-neck.

In both primaries, 12% of respondents said that they were still undecided.

And in hypothetical matchups for the general election, there is “little difference” between the expected performance of a Republican and a Democrat regardless of the candidates, according to the survey conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. While it indicates that Paxton and Cornyn could beat Crockett by 2 percentage points, Paxton could do slightly better than Cornyn if facing Talarico. Between 7% and 8% of likely voters said they were still unsure on how to vote in these cases.




https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/09/texas-senate-race-poll-paxton-crockett-talarico-cornyn-2026-primary/

[efhmc]

1. I think that Talarico will win the primary and has a much better chance to beat Paxton.

[Initech]

2. Oh god, literally anybody but Ken Paxton.

That guy is the fucking worst. He'd be worse than Ted Cruz.

[Bok_Tukalo]

3. Once Crockett went after Talarico over race

… this one was probably lost.

There is no margin for stupidity in Texas for Democrats at the state level.

[TBF]

4. I fear that also - and Paxton will win Bigly unfortunately.

She doesn't have a chance in a statewide race. We've been in Texas 20+ years (came here for a job). When Wendy Davis ran against Abbott I supported her with donations even after the DNC pulled out. I was convinced she had a chance, but Abbott beat her 60/40. Trump beat both Hillary and Kamala by similar amounts. The same will happen with Crockett.

The grandson of a preacher did have a chance. I'd love to know who bankrolled her campaign.

[ananda]

12. Not too long ago, I read that some superpac was supporting Crockett.

I keep wondering if it was financed by the GOP.

[TBF]

13. I don't know ...

It could be any number of factions. It was just suspicious coming in right before the end of filing & with Talarico doing so well.

[ananda]

15. Yes. Very suspicious, imho.

I so wanted a Democrat from Texas
in the Senate.

[pinkstarburst]

26. Very suspicious indeed

And I really dislike that it came from both Crockett and Allred, who have been coordinating their efforts from the start. He dropped out of the senate race literally hours before Crockett announced her last minute campaign. I really hate to think they would have purposefully poisoned the well in order to make sure that if Jasmine doesn't win the primary, no democrat can win in November, but effectively, she has ruined it for us all. So disappointed in her.

[TBF]

18. Just did a little research

James has definitely brought in the small donors. She brought in a lot less that way, and instead transferred in money from her house account. Which I'm sure she can do; but that doesn't automatically transfer to "grassroots support" because I confirmed the crypto and pharma money. So, she's corporate.

I know most dems statewide will try to help if she's the candidate, we're certainly not going to be helping Paxton. But, the good old boys of TX will not like her, and I'm not sure where we'll be w/moderates.

I can't compare her with the guy in Tarrant County because that's one county and she has won up in that area before. That's really different from taking the entire state. Big Latino orgs are endorsing Talarico. Will they come out for her?

[ananda]

20. Thank you.

Both of them are great people and candidates.

I guess you're implying that the question is:

will Latinos vote for Crockett?

[TBF]

21. Not just Latinos -

with Talarico moderates are in play also. He's a sincerely religious person, and that matters to many in Texas. IDK, maybe people will surprise me.

[pinkstarburst]

27. It's absolutely the question

Last edited Tue Feb 10, 2026, 03:07 PM - Edit history (1)

Texas is now a Latino majority state and Latinos tend to be more conservative than many people realize, which is why this trend in our census pattern is causing the state to get more conservative, rather than turn purple/blue.

What we need is a candidate who can not only get democratic voters to turn out, but also capture some of the voters who don't like what's happening right now under the current administration. Someone like Talarico, a progressive religious man, is more likely to be someone who might get some of those Hispanic votes and Democratic votes, vs Crockett, who definitely plays to the progressive democratic energy, but with her habit of cursing out republicans in sound bites, is probably not going to appeal to conservative Hispanic men.

[ananda]

30. I've been thinking along those lines also.

I absolutely love Crockett, and would vote for her in a heartbeat...

but at this stage, a Dem win is much more important.

[W_HAMILTON]

22. She might not be able to win statewide, but neither will anyone that can't even beat her in the primary.

[TBF]

23. Comparing apples & oranges ...

two very distinct arenas. But, yeah, as soon as she announced I figured we were cooked. That's why I was looking into who financed it.

[W_HAMILTON]

24. Not really. If a Democrat can't even win the support of Democrats there...

...they aren't going to win the support of enough voters to win in the general.

[TBF]

25. So, which part of Texas do you live in? nt

[pinkstarburst]

9. By doing that, she screwed us either way

Any chance she had would have required her picking up conservative male votes in deep red Texas. Her race comments might be enough to damage Talarico with Black voters, and they will certainly be enough to damage her with conservative non-Black voters. So we lose, either way no matter which candidate has to run in the general.

[TBF]

14. Exactly. nt

[Torchlight]

5. Rep. Crockett has demonstrated strong grassroots energy and voter engagement

which could translate into higher turnout among supporters, especially given the recognizable volatility of TX voters this go around.

She maintains high-profile visibility in TX, plus messaging on the very key issues that propelled Taylor Rehmet to his upset victory last week.

[pinkstarburst]

28. Taylor Rehmet is a white man

He's a blue collar white man. Look up a picture of him. I looked him up and could see exactly why he would appeal to moderate red Texas voters. He's very salt of the earth looking.

We have the 2016 and 2024 elections that demonstrate that a completely unqualified white man running even in SWING STATES trounces an extremely qualified Black woman. Unfortunately, many voters are sexist and racist and no one sees your vote in the voting booth.

Now repeat that same experiment in a red state.

Jasmine Crockett has good national energy, and does well among progressive democrats in Texas. I would be absolutely shocked if she could win in Texas because she will have to run in a state that is 80% Hispanic and White, and that trends very conservative. But I would love to be proven wrong. If she does win, that will be the end of the conversation forever about "we have to have a straight white man in the White House for 2028" and that means that all these conversations about how it must be Andy Beshear or Chris Murphy or Pritzger or Newsom can be put to rest, and we can start having meaningful conversations about how it should be Pete Buttigieg or AOC or Elizabeth Warren.

[Torchlight]

29. I'm guessing we'll all vote for the best candidate

who aligns closest to our values. Tomorrow never knows.

[surfered]

6. Paxton's lead over Cornyn is not surprising as Texas conservatives just love their corrupt adulterous politicians.

I love Jasmine . She’s smart, attractive, and courageous but I hate to say it, she can’t win the general in red neck Texas.

[JCMach1]

7. I don't buy it. Both races are close.

Cornyn may actually come in 3rd place on the MAGA side. Wesley Hunt could end up in a runoff with Paxton in a humiliating loss for Cornyn.

I don't see Cornyn surviving this.

Dem Primary I see as a toss-up with two great candidates. I haven't even made up my mind yet and may not until election day.

[pinkstarburst]

8. I don't see her winning in deep red Texas in the general

Colin Allred dropped out of the senate race hours before Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy. They have been coordinating their efforts from the start. Them working together to try to take out Talarico by bringing up race smacks of cheap mudslinging. I know I won't be donating any money to Crockett or Allred ever again, that's for sure.

[Sympthsical]

10. Crockett and Allred cynically poisoned the well

Maybe it'll work out in the primary. It won't in the general. In Texas?

Her entering the race was a mistake. She's about drama. That is not what Democrats needed here.

But hey, we got drama. So, I guess that's nice for social media.

Cushy consulting gigs for everyone!

[dalton99a]

11. Crockett will not win a general election in Texas.

Zero chance.

It is utter delusion.

[Takket]

16. it is amazing to me that rethugs all gravitate to the most corrupt person they can

after paxton was just DEAD TO RIGHTS guilty of corruption, got impeached, and only his rethug friends saved him. and rethugs look at that and go "he hates liberals more than the other guy! that's all i care about!"

[hurl]

17. As of now

I intend to vote for Talarico in the primary. While I love the energy Crockett brings, I think she also will mobilize R voters who otherwise might feel too dejected or unmotivated to vote given the national climate.

It's upsetting that these two are competing against each other... That's the last thing Texas voters need. I really hope whoever loses will get some position in the next Democratic administration, because we need both of their skill sets for years to come.

[TBF]

19. Yes - absolutely agree w/your assessment

Texas is complicated, and we did not need these two running against each other.