TX-SEN: Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic primary, poll finds

[RandySF]

Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has a double-digit lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico in the final days of Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

In the survey, fielded from Feb. 2 to Feb. 16, Crockett garnered the support of 56% of voters, while Talarico got 44%. For the Democratic primary, pollsters from the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project surveyed a sample of 369 voters, producing a margin of error of +/-5.1 points.

As in other polls, Crockett had a massive advantage with Black voters, drawing 87% support. The Dallas congresswoman also led among seniors and voters without a college degree.

Talarico had a narrow advantage with white voters — winning them by only 6 percentage points — while Hispanic voters were a virtual tossup, with Crockett leading by 4 points.



https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/25/texas-senate-poll-crockett-talarico-university-of-texas-paxton-cornyn-hunt-2026/

[lostincalifornia]

1. I really like Rep. Crockett.

[Tree Lady]

2. I like both of them but hope she can

Win in the general.

[newdeal2]

3. Surprisingly large lead

If it pans out in the primary election, then it was definitely a good thing that there was more than one candidate.

[SSJVegeta]

7. Didnt read the details but I imagine they took leaners

In that scenario pepple likely just chose the only person they knew of between the two of they didnt have a preference.

It was taken before the colbert thing blew up, so any poll afterwards would be a much better reflection of where the race likely stands.

[FascismIsDeath]

4. I like both but I feel like Talarico is the stronger GE candidate in that particular state.

[nature-lover]

5. Survey was from Feb 2-16. Colbert interviewed Talarico on Feb. 16. Probably different results now.

[SSJVegeta]

8. Especially since they probably used leaners into the equation.

Last edited Wed Feb 25, 2026, 02:42 PM - Edit history (1)

That would always favor the one with name recognition.

[pinkstarburst]

10. I'm really interested to see polling taken after the interview

[Torchlight]

6. K&R. This is encouraging to me

as I lean toward her leadership and vision. That said, I respect both candidates and would be glad to support either Talarico or Crockett if they win the nomination. I'm confident either strengthens our voice going forward.

[pinkstarburst]

9. This poll was done before Colbert

All the buzz I'm hearing locally is for Talarico.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

45. This poll was before the Colbert show

[mike_c]

11. Talarico's religiosity turns me off

Once checked, that box usually stays checked. Candidates can't unreligion themselves once they've gone there, and Talarico went there right out of the gate. Ugh.

[SSJVegeta]

12. Talarico only brings up religion to condemn the people who misuse

It.

And to make points that reinforce why the separation of church is so important. He in no way has ever preached that his religion is in any way superior to others, and is a fierce advocate for keeping the ten commandments out of classrooms and maintaining the clear line between church and state.

[leftstreet]

13. True

I was VERY *cringe* the first time I heard his focus on religion. But after following his socials and watching rally clips, it was clear he's trying to correct a false narrative. And apparently he and his people know it's a powerful narrative for the voters he's trying to reach, and informs their decisions.

I would HATE it, but I'm not from that area

[JudyM]

37. yes, while I usually cringe at that, he walked it perfectly, joining the sides, which is what we need, IMO.

[duckworth969]

18. Here, here

When it’s crunch time, we can’t have another Manchin, Fetterman, or Sinema mucking up the works.

Go for the sure thing, not a guy who thumps the bible.

[pinkstarburst]

20. He is so far from any of those that it's not even funny

James Talarico is the real deal. This is like saying we need to get rid of Rev. Raphael Warnock because "we want to go for the sure thing, not the guy who thumps the bible." LOL.

[duckworth969]

36. It would be best if Crockett gets the nod

And Talarico finds something else to do.

With White Christian Nationalism on the rise in our country, the last thing we need is another politician who quotes bible verses during his speeches.

[pinkstarburst]

38. You must not be from Texas

Last edited Thu Feb 26, 2026, 10:46 AM - Edit history (1)

Talarico is the real deal. Every time I hear him speak, I am more excited for his message. Every time I hear more from Crockett during her campaign, I have been more disappointed.

Unfortunately, Crockett has no chance of winning in the general. Some people in this thread are kidding themselves. Would we actually be happy if Crockett was the democratic nominee for President in 2028? Of course we wouldn't! That would be a surefire way to hand victory over to the republicans because if Harris and Clinton couldn't win in 2024 and 2016 there is no way someone as controversial and divisive as Crockett could possibly win if she has to not only win in a safe blue district (the only place she's ever won) and instead has to win swing states. Just not happening.

And there's ZERO chance she's winning in a red state like Texas, where she has to get the votes of conservative rednecks in order to win. That's why many people (including me) were so disappointed when she jumped into to the race on the last day. Talarico could actually win. His messaging is exactly what we need in Texas. Her message is important--but just like AOC, she's a far left firebrand. AOC wouldn't get elected in a deep red state. She gets elected because she's in a safe blue district. Jasmine is never going to get elected if she has to run in the general.

James Talarico is the ONLY candidate who has ever flipped a solid red district and WON. Truly hoping he wins the primary. If he doesn't, we're sunk.

[duckworth969]

42. Talarico has taken $ from GOP donor Miriam Alderson

I respect and appreciate your passion on this subject.

However, while you make some good points on Crocketts electability, I feel just as strongly about my position.

The Alderson donation is a major red flag. And it should be for any Dem supporting him during this primary. Links are below if you wish to see for yourself.

Further, I have NO use for religion period, let alone in national politics. Repug or Dem, it’s all the same to me. Religion is needlessly in the way when creating sound public policy.

Religion is destructive and divisive. You don’t have to look far to see that.

In the words of Christopher Hitchens, “religion poisons everything”.

In my opinion, Talarico could be a Trojan horse and he’s not worth the risk.

https://texasmetronews.com/103593/colin-allred-dings-james-talarico-over-contributions-from-billionaire-miriam-adelson/

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2025/08/21/texas-democrat-who-rails-against-the-rich-takes-59k-from-trump-backing-megadonor-1578153/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-democrat-who-rails-against-billionaire-cash-takes-59k-from-trump-backing-megadonor

[mwmisses4289]

19. It is turning off quite a few dems.

That said, many of these same dems are indicating that if he ends up winning the primary, they will vote for him in November. He's definitely a whole lot better than cornyn or cruz!

[pinkstarburst]

21. I assume you also object to Rev Raphael Warnock?

Some of the comments in this thread amaze me.

[mike_c]

24. actually no-- but perhaps you can enlighten me?

If Warnock explicitly weaves religion into his political discourse then yes, I would find that terribly off-putting, but if he does I'm not aware of it. I did not pay particular attention to Georgia politics while he was initially campaigning, so I just don't have enough information. Did he run on the Jesus ticket?

I don't reject candidates simply for having their own religious faith. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, even regarding invisible sky daddies. It's the ones who rub everyone's noses into their personal religious dogma or use religion as justification for public policy that get under my skin. Or as a public focus of their candidacy. I don't care who or what they worship, but talking about it all the time makes me question whether they extend the same courtesy to everyone else. I just don't want to hear it in a secular forum.

[themaguffin]

14. Let's see what polls say that include last week.

[Liberal In Texas]

15. I voted for her.

I think Talarico needs to run for a US House seat and do that for a couple of years.
He's going to be a name to be reconnected with he certainly gets out there. But not senate in this one.
That said, if he's nominated I'll fully support him.

[Cha]

25. Mahalo!

[kwolf68]

16. Talarico should be the guy

I love Crockett, but this is not a pragmatic choice. Not in Texas. Can't we make some practical choices? Please.

[pinkstarburst]

23. I am surprised by how many people

are blind to this fact after the 2016 and 2024 elections. We couldn't win based on being unable to overcome sexism (and racism) in SWING states in those two elections, and people are talking like red state Texas is going to elect a Black woman.

And even more crazy, people are in this thread saying Talarico speaking about his religion (only in a positive way, that seeks to say how religious fundamentalism has been used by politics to overreach and that it needs to be separate) is going to play badly in Texas. This state has a lot of moderate and conservative voters. It is more than 80% Hispanic and white and those voters trend conservative. If Jasmine wins the primary, she CANNOT win the general without picking up votes from the middle. She simply cannot.

Jasmine has never won a competitive race. She has always run in safe blue districts. James Talarico is the only candidate who has actually FLIPPED a solid red district to win his seat.

Whoever wins will have my vote in the general, but it's going to be a long road and I think some people are thinking with hope in their eyes rather than pragmaticism.

[leftstreet]

26. +1

I suspect the tried and true lazy politics of Us vs Them would like to ignore some of his powerful talks that are resonating with Texans. He does a LOT of class politics. Good for him!

Link to tweet

?s=20

[markodochartaigh]

29. Texas is only red (probably) because so many people don't vote.

Texas has one of the highest rates of non-voters in the country. Certainly having a Black Democratic woman on the ballot will galvanize the 56% of Texans who voted against Harris. And, of course, Texas has been hard at work trying to decrease voter turnout over the last year. (People who say that gerrymandering doesn't affect state wide races neglect to consider the suppressive effect of gerrymandering).
Jasmine Crockett is electric and incredibly charismatic to left-leaning and educated voters, but those voters vote anyway. The test is whether she can motivate disengaged, apathetic voters who mostly care only about their own hamberders and sportsball. I wish that I could say that I had enough faith in Texans to believe that she could.

[lame54]

33. Open primary

[Cha]

17. TY... We'll see what the next

poll says. I love Jasmine Crockett, btw!

I hope she wins the GE!

[DFW]

22. Five million Democratic voters in Texas, and this poll samples 369 of them. Who? Where?

I guess it's an indication, but it's just one of many, and I wouldn't count on it to necessarily reflect statewide Democratic voter sentiment. I'd be skeptical of a poll sampling 3000 random voters. With 369 voters, just seven people constitute 2% of the voters sampled. If it turns out to be accurate, kudos to them, but I still wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

27. I also would not bet the farm of this poll

Polling Texas is hard because Texas is such a large state with a very diverse voting population.

I voted for Talerico but would happily support Crockett

[markodochartaigh]

31. I think that there will be a strong bias towards Talarico

in the primary simply because so many people believe that Crockett can't win the general. The last two people in our family who haven't left Texas, my sister and nephew, both voted for Talarico because they thought Crockett couldn't win. And my nephew is absolutely allergic to religion.

[calguy]

28. Jasmine Crockett seems like a fine representative for her district

and I don’t claim to have any knowledge about the current political climate in Texas, but the way I’ve seen Texas vote in the past few decades, a black female, no matter how good she might be, isn’t going to fly in a statewide election with rednecks and bigots.

[D_Master81]

30. Can we please be pragmatic here

We all can love Jasmine Crockett and admit she is great for her district but it’s quite likely she is not going to win in the general in a state wide election. This is Texas we are talking about and unfair or not I just don’t see that state electing a black woman to the Senate. Talarico reminds me a lot of Beto, in that he can appeal to the swing voters and even Beto couldn’t win in 2 tries. This is a situation where we can really put the Republicans on the defensive in a red state or give them a mild scare.

[mwmisses4289]

39. Pragmatic is what got us an alleged pedophile in the white house.

Texas elected Barbara Jordan to the house of reps; it is certainly possible to elect Ms. Crockett to the senate.

[pinkstarburst]

43. Apples and oranges

Jasmine Crockett is already a House Rep, just like Barbara Jordan was. The key thing here is that in both instances, they were elected in safe blue districts.

Jasmine has never had to run in a competitive race. She has only ever run in safe blue districts. Talarico has actually FLIPPED a solid red district to win his seat. That's the difference.

In order to win a statewide race, Crockett would have to win the majority of votes in red state Texas. Stop and think for a second how DU would be reacting if Jasmine Crockett were the 2028 democratic candidate for president. Would we be excited? Or would we be saying, "oh sht, we're screwed" because no way would she be able to get enough votes from across the country, when we've seen what happened in 2016 and 2024 when Hillary and Kamala Harris had to try to get votes and couldn't overcome sexism and racism even in SWING STATES.

So why are some people so fired up about the idea of her running in a RED STATE? People need to come to grips with reality. If this country would not elect a black woman president because we couldn't get the votes even in SWING STATES, redneck Texas is not going to elect a black woman to the senate, I am sorry to say.

[fujiyamasan]

32. Both are fighting an uphill battle in Texas

2018 was the closest democrats have come to winning a statewide race in over thirty years. Beto lost by 2.6 points, but even that was over 200,000 votes.

Texas is huge and still very conservative. I think Crockett faces a greater challenge outside of her urban stronghold. She’ll win the major cities, but likely struggle elsewhere, including the border towns which will be critical to winning the race.

Right now, I think there are more winnable senate seats. I honestly would be stunned if crocket somehow won the race, even against a truly depraved corrupt scum bag like Paxton. Paxton is truly peak Texas republican in terms of everything rotten.

[Dem_4_Life]

34. I really hope Talarico wins

He has a better chance of winning the general election outside of urban areas. Her campaign has been very negative and left a bad taste in my mouth. I used to love her but now not so much.

If you watch Talarico’s YouTube videos how he handles Republican’s in the Texas House it is a great representation how he would be in the senate.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

35. Here are some other polling

It does not surprise me that this polling is not clear

Link to tweet

Polling of TX senate:

Emerson: Talarico +9
UT Texas: Crockett +12
Hobby: Crockett +8
Impact: Talarico +4
Slingshot: Crockett +1

(All polls pre-Colbert Talarico surge)

Polling is all over the place. This seems like an especially tough race to poll/model turnout. 🤷‍♂️

[Blue Full Moon]

41. I thought the Colbert interview not being aired was strange.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

44. Here is another poll

Link to tweet

US Senate Texas Democratic primary 2026

🟦James Talarico 48%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 42%
🟦Ahmed Hassan 0%
Not sure 10%

(Poll meant for pro-Talarico group)

Link to poll: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/68a237ed87f54c4157d6fcae/t/699fc465ccebdf5f9f4c89e3/1772078181510/TexasDemocraticResults+2.25.pdf

[pinkstarburst]

46. Thanks! First recent polling we've seen

[LetMyPeopleVote]

47. The Polling in the Texas Democratic Senate primary is all over the place

While I have already voted for Talarico, I would be very happy to support Crockett if she is the nominee. Texas Democrats are blessed with two amazing persons running for this seat which is why the polling has been all over the place.

Link to tweet

I thought our 2024 MD senate primary had some of the worst polling but TX you are the winner hands down. I really have no clue who will win on Tuesday and I am okay with that.

One or none of these polls got it right, I never seen no shit like this 🤷🏽‍♀️

Here is the latest average of the polling

Link to tweet

These numbers are all within the margin of error and so I would not be surprised to see either candidate emerge as the nominee. Again, Texas Democrats are blessed with two amazing candidates and we will be fortunate to have either candidate be our nominee to run against hopefully Paxton.