Are the idiots on Wall Street really this stupid

[edhopper]

I have watched them for a year ignore almost all economic indicators to keep pouring money into the market. Bouyed by the false promise of AI.
But today, they react to a post by Trump about Iran that even the dimmest of them should know is a lie.

MarketWatch:

Stocks sharply higher after Trump touts ‘very good’ talks with Iran — even as Iranians cast doubt

Dow up by 1000 points. The fall will be all the greater.

[ms liberty]

1. Yes.

[MineralMan]

2. "Buy The Rumor!"

[NCDem47]

3. This INFURIATES me.

I’m no brainiac, but I can see and predict all of this from a mile away.

Every.

Single.

Time.

Trump is the most panicky President EVER when it comes to the markets getting too white hot.

And Wall Street is happy to oblige.

[spanone]

4. trmp knows he'll get a quick bump in the market and a temporary reduction in the price of oil.

That's all he cares about.

The sugar high that his lies will cause.

[edhopper]

7. True

but why do they fall for it?

[spanone]

9. Money.

[Scott Alan Swaggerty]

50. Because a lot of people are, well, morons

[Scott Alan Swaggerty]

49. Yep

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. What makes you so sure?

AI is, and will continue to be, a bubble wrapped in a false promise, destined to pop once the illusion dissipates.

Oil stocks will continue to be volatile.

But the rest of the market is rejoicing at the return to a semblance of stability.

Trump has painted himself into a corner, and cannot resume his war without increasing Democrats’ gains at the polls in November.

He is declaring victory after Iran, who held all the cards, played them shrewdly and deftly, opening the strait to everyone except the US, Israel and “their allies” (who ever that is), adding their own threat to permanently close the strait if the attacks continued.

Dow up by 1000 points. The fall will be all the greater.

An eventual correction due to the collapse of AI was always in the cards, regardless of Trump’s actions in Iran. But now, the rest of the market is slowly stabilizing, rather than heading to a Trump-induced Armageddon.

[edhopper]

10. I don't see a 1000 point jump

as stabilizing. And everything else Trump does will negatively affect the market.
We are currently at near no job growth, near no economic growth, and increased inflation.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. The 1000 point gain is only a partial recovery of the losses of the past few weeks

So, not as big a deal in the big picture- it’s the direction of movement that matters- the bleeding has stopped, at least for now.

We have yet to see the impact on the market of the slowing economy, that is yet to come.

A lot will depend on the impact of consumer sentiment on corporate profits. Right now, reduced payrolls are good for profits.

As long as the war doesn’t resume, and the strait remains open, AI remains the only big unpredictable variable. That doesn’t mean a contracting economy leading to a recession won’t impact the markets, it just won’t be Armageddon.

[edhopper]

16. I see

2008 happening again. Or at least 2000.

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. That is far from certain

But my diversified and balanced portfolio survived both of those events, losing less and recovering quicker than the Dow/S&P.

[edhopper]

26. Yes

When Trump got in, I moved a lot out of equities.

[GreatGazoo]

19. "collapse of AI"

DeepSeek didn't pop it.
Tariffs didn't.
The June war didn't.
This war didn't.
Calling it a "bubble" didn't.

NVDA is down 3% in 3-months, hardly a "collapse." In contrast the Russell is down 8% in the same period.

So what will it take for this AI collapse to get started?

US oil stocks are doing great and will continue -- ET, PAA,

Oil (USO) is volatile. Oil stocks not so much.

[lostincalifornia]

6. Yes, but they aren't idiots. It is pure manipulation to try and sucker people into the market before knowing the

credibility of what is happening.

They do this bullshit all the time.

That being said, the market is still down significantly from where it was before the sociopath attacked Iran, and until the next few days determine what is actually happening, everything is just speculation as far as the market is concerned.

I don't think anyone knows what i really happening, but I do know that the war between Iran and Iraq, pushed by us under the Reagan administration, lasted for 8 years, which caused the deaths and destruction of over a million people.

[Arthur_Frain]

8. Because there are knee jerk reaction idiots in the stock market too.

But I don’t know about your comment that the fall will be all the greater.

After watching for most of my life, I’m starting to wonder which direction the greater arc of history really bends?

Whether it’s a fair election or not (how can this election be “fair?), I don’t think the liberals are going to take back seats in any meaningful way. I mean, we will win some seats, but not what we need to fix much with what they leave us.

Freely admit I’m feeling a little negative this week, but the optimism I encounter on this site that anything might really happen to any of these people in some measure that they deserve or that the people in power (the rich) can be expected to react in any sane, humane way seems more foolish when I’m in a mood.

Had the same reaction you did when I opened market watch this morning. “Really?”

[edhopper]

11. I meant the market fall

not any great fall of the GOP. I am not that optimistic, and no longer trust American voters.

[Arthur_Frain]

15. I know

Sorry, I branched out a bit. Specifically, I don’t think the market is going to crash spectacularly either. It just seems to me that if it were going to happen, it would have already.

I never invested much, but I’m glad I don’t have much in the market right now. I don’t know how anyone would get an honest read?

[edhopper]

18. Market bubbles

always go up longer and higher than the should with careful analysis. The Housing Bubble was obvious in 2006. but it went to 2008 before it collapsed.

[Vinca]

12. Iran, of course, says whoever he's talking to, it's not them.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. Iran has acknowledged talking to Turkey

Turkey is often the intermediary since they don’t have formal diplomatic relations with the US.

[unblock]

17. They're not that stupid. But they know that if he's talking about a pause and peace talks and such

it's more likely to be a shorter war than a longer war.

The market doesn't really care if we win or lose, if Donnie lies or tells the truth, it just wants oil to flow and this stupid war over.

If Donnie lies and claims victory and stops the war, the market will be thrilled.

The lie basically tells us that he's looking for an exit, and that's good enough for the market.

[Johnny2X2X]

20. There were bets with inside knowledge

A single buy of $1.5B of the S&P just before Trump spoke.

It's insider trading and Trump is 100% getting kickbacks.

[Scott Alan Swaggerty]

47. For real

[GreatGazoo]

21. Traders have been expecting a TACO

So the orange one mentioning anything that feeds into that is enough for this blip.

Market has priced in having this war last through May.

[edhopper]

22. The market

has not been priced well since Trump got in.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/stocks-near-highest-valuations-since-1880/

[GreatGazoo]

24. Trump behaves economically like RW socialist

Eg. stimulus checks, price controls, subsidies, protectionist tariffs, demanding rate cuts, $1000 per kid for "Trump accounts"

Trump loves juicing the market. I think that is what is priced in.

But I agree that valuations seem too high. I like gold, oil (P/E 16) and nicotine (P/E 15). PAA, ET, MO are well priced, defensive and pay~7% divs. GSL (shipping) trades at P/E 3.4 (!) and pays 6.5% div but is in a peak, up 61% from a year ago.

[mwmisses4289]

25. Not stupid; greedy.

[Scott Alan Swaggerty]

48. Or stupid and greedy

[SCantiGOP]

27. One correction: these are not 'idiots on Wall Street'

These are millions of investors here and around the world making these buy/sell decisions. They are the idiots.

[edhopper]

28. Big funds

move most of the market. Not little investors.

[ToxMarz]

29. They make more money on volatility than looking for just gains

Does't matter if its going up or down, someone is making money. Usually them. They love to see it go up and down every day rather than just hover at the same price.

[swong19104]

30. They're not dumb

They want churn. If it takes weeks for the market to go up a thousand points, they can’t make as much as if it happens over 20 minutes. They know it’s a lie. But when the market moves fast, they get to earn on bothe the rise and the fall. And even if they miss the timing by 15 seconds, they can reap 4% net gain for the day. Imagine doing that for 200 days of the year. At a 4% daily increase, you need about three weeks (15 days) to almost double your money. Do that 17 times in a year because you know Trump’s going to make some claim that can justify a rise, and then it’ll fall after people realize the wolf-crying.

In the long run, solid corporate financials will keep the market properly set at basically the “right” price. It’s the short term that allows those to win.

[ChicagoTeamster]

31. But when you're trading in huge volume and have a lot of money, advance knowledge of what Trump's going to say

Last edited Mon Mar 23, 2026, 06:02 PM - Edit history (1)

Can make a lot of quick money even if you don't hold the stock long term. Just buying before the jump and selling before the next dip (like before we actually bomb) can make money.

[rso]

33. Stocks

Precisely

[rso]

32. Stocks

Wealthy insiders who are aware of what Trump plans to announce have been making lots of money by buying just before Trump’s announcement.

[markodochartaigh]

34. Yes. But it is really greed and hubris which effectively lower their iq by 30 points.

When Trump first ran in 2015 I thought that Wall Street would not back him because they wouldn't want to roast the goose which was laying the golden eggs which they collect. I think that there is also a growing belief among our oiligarchs that with anthropogenic climate change our civilization is poised at the brink, so they want to take everything that they can as quickly as possible.

[edhopper]

35. I think that despite the economy

and the markets ALWAYS do better under Dems and the Repukes ALWAYS tank it. The rich would rather have a small marginal rate tax cut and less regulation than make more profits.
But as I said, they are idiots.

[markodochartaigh]

43. Certainly.

It isn't about money. It is about power and control. If our oiligarchs only wanted more money they have known since Henry Ford paid his workers enough to buy the cars that they made that the way to make more money is to feed the economy from the ground up.
What our oiligarchs want is asymmetric power. It isn't enough that they are incredibly wealthy, as much of the population as possible must be poor.

[Kid Berwyn]

36. The Ayatollah don't surf.

And neither does dimdonnie the traitor.

[ProfessorGAC]

37. Seems More Like A Bargain Hunter Bounce

There is always profit to be made when a correction or market reaction causes a plunge.
The Dow is still down nearly 5% over the last month & down 4.1% TYD. S&P is down 3.66% YTD & the Russell is down 4.4% over the last 30 days.
Not sure stupidity is the cause of this bounce.
Stupidity may be the cause of all the betting on AI stocks that is propping up these indices the last 18 months or so, though.

[edhopper]

39. Your last sentence

exactly this.

[GoodRaisin]

38. No. Everybody knows that Trump lies about everything.

It’s just buyers jumping in to buy “low”.

The market has been ignoring Trump’s crap for a long time now. The media’s take is horseshit.

[DFW]

40. Not necessarily stupid. Some are just experienced day traders.

After an extreme movement in one direction, there is often a quick bounceback in the other direction. A trader who knows the roppes can jump in when he/she detects an over-reaction, and then sell their position when they feel the bounce is losing its steam.

[D_Master81]

41. It's not even about reality anympre

I’m sure many know it’s not long term but if you trade the volatility on leverage you can make a killing. They will probably short the market soon

[ABC123Easy]

42. Uh....Yarp!

[Wiz Imp]

44. It gave back almost half of those gains. It closed at just +631 (which is still insane.)

Last edited Mon Mar 23, 2026, 06:24 PM - Edit history (1)

[Rebl2]

45. While

Iran says they haven’t spoken to anyone in the administration.

[Scott Alan Swaggerty]

46. They are

[WSHazel]

51. Watch the dollar

There was a knee jerk reaction ”flight to quality” with the dollar gaining from about $1.18/Euro to under $1.15/Euro. I have no idea why anyone thinks the dollar is quality given the U.S. fiscal and current account deficit, other than this is what traders always did during war.

With Trump trying to TACO, along with the litany of bad behavior by this administration, I believe the downward pressure on the dollar will resume. We will see.

[Scrivener7]

52. I almost always watch what the market is doing and do the opposite. It works pretty well.

For example, remember when Chipotle was having all those problems with "norovirus?" I watched it for a while. It would go up 10%, a report would go out saying a Chipotle had made people sick, then drop 8%. It was a predictable cycle. Someone was playing with the stock. So I'd buy on the low and sell after an 8% increase. It worked really well for 5 or 6 cycles.

Right now, as people breathlessly hang on every word dribbling from a madman's pie hole, I'm almost entirely out of the market.

[Ursus Rex]

53. They're not necessarily worldly geniuses, and they follow trends

... plus, many of them are all for swings and large volume.

[CanonRay]

54. The market is classic mob behavior

Lowest IQ leads.

[doc03]

55. There is more money stollen on Wall Street each day than at

gun point in an entire year.