With 26 Days Until the Virginia Redistricting Referendum on 4/21, Where Do Things Stand?

[RandySF]

NOTE: Other data analysts estimate a much closer outcome.



The political media, of course, wants the redistricting referendum YES side to lose, or for it to be super close, becaue that’s how those folks roll of course. And they’re rolling out story after story, tweet after tweet, along those lines. But is that where we’re actually at right now, with 26 days until election day on April 21? Well…see below and judge for yourself, but the short answer is somewhere between “sure doesn’t seem like that’s where we’re at” and “nope, that’s not where we’re at.” LOL

First, check out the new modeling estimate from L2 Political, and compare/contrast to L2’s estimate on 10/10/25, a few weeks before the 11/4/25 election, which Democrats won in a landslide (Spanberger by 15+ points; +13 Dems in the House of Delegates; etc.).

L2’s current estimate: 57%D-39%R (D+18 points)
L2’s estimate on 10/10/25: 56.5%D-39.1%R (D+17.4 points)

In short, L2’s current estimate is almost identical to its 10/10/25 estimate in the Virginia governor’s election, which Democrats won by 15 points. So…not predicting that the “YES” side will win by 15 points, but it certainly seems encouraging!




https://bluevirginia.us/2026/03/146095/