Oil price shocks usually lead to a recession

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Stock market bulls should show a little more caution, given how past oil price shocks have impacted the economy.

Every US recession, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, was preceded by an oil price shock, BCA Research chief global strategist Peter Berezin said in a new note (see chart below).

"The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions: Rising oil prices, an unsustainable tech capex boom, elevated equity valuations, excessively high homes prices, and brewing stresses in private credit and other parts of the financial system," Berezin wrote.

He added, "Stocks look increasingly oversold in the very near term but will still finish the year below current levels."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-bulls-dont-forget-this-one-oil-price-shocks-usually-lead-to-a-recession-131921062.html

Donny seems ready to oblige.

[Johonny]

1. The economy was meh before the war

I just don't see anything propping up the economy.

[Strelnikov_]

2. All with the overlay of weakening of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency

Dementia Donny drops a tactical nuke or two, all bets are off.

Instant depression . . . and time to stock up on SPF 20,000,000,000 sunblock.

[Greg_In_SF]

3. Oil was

$114.00 a barrel shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine and nothing happened.

[ck4829]

5. We didn't have the glorious Republican trifecta back then driving us into the ground.

So now grocery prices are almost as bad as the job market.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Job growth is near zero for over a year now

I don't think people get hoe catastrophic that is for working people. A recession is coming, and it's going to crush the middle class.

[ck4829]

6. K&R. Things are bad out there, and only going to get worse.