Trump promised tax refunds would jump '$1,000 or more'. The gains will go to wealthy Americans, experts say

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

In January, tax refunds were looking up. By March, not so much.

At the start of the year, the White House projected that 2026 tax refunds would increase by “$1,000 or more” compared to 2025. Provisions in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill - no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security - would help drive the projected refund amounts, the White House noted.

But the latest Internal Revenue Service data, from March 27, shows the average refund was only $351 higher than refund amounts through March 2025, according to a review by The Independent.

And while the average may increase through the end of the year, those left with more than a grand in their pocket will be America’s highest earners, experts say.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-promised-tax-refunds-jump-195010909.html

Of course they will.

[MichMan]

1. Mine went up by more than $1000 and we are far from being high earners

[Igel]

4. The problem is that it depends who you are.

And it also depends on what would have happened if the tax cuts hadn't been extended.

My return went up a bit because I increased the money invested pre-tax for retirement up to about 1/3 of my take home pay. But had the tax cuts not passed, estimates are that I'd have been over $1000 less than last year--meaning, essentially, I'd owe about $500 before paying the person who did my taxes.

Because the question answered isn't the important question: "Did you return go up over last year?" Asking question is misdirection.

The question should be, "Did your return go up over what it would have been had the tax cuts expired yielded an effective tax increase?"

(The other thing to note that any tax cut will not help the bottom 40% or so of households because they effectively pay no Federal income tax--we can argue about FICA, Medicare, things like excise taxes or state taxes, but since the original debate is precisely over Federal income taxes let's not relocate the goal posts as necessary to make sure that the ball, once in flight, must score a goal and instead talk Federal income taxes. The only tax cut they could get would be to have refundable tax credits above and beyond any taxes owed.)

[walkingman]

2. I did get a refund of $35 but it is the first refund I have gotten in many years. Sadly

that paid for my tax software ☮

[Bluestocking]

3. I owed $4300. Last year I got a refund

Last time I owed this much was after the last Trump tax bill during his first term. My pay actually was less this year than last year. Nothing else changed. I just increased my withholding so paycheck will be even less this year.
I hate Republicans

[SheLiberal]

5. No change

We saw no change in our tax refund this year.