Regarding the US blockading the Strait of Hormuz, when do you think

[RockRaven]

the first sinking of ship or murder of crew by US forces will take place?

And how many ships will defiantly run the Strait without US permission before that first sinkage/murder happens?

[EarthFirst]

1. What's Polymarket have to say?

That cesspool will wager on anything…

[haele]

2. The wording of the current direction won't affect most shipping....

The direction stop and detain concerns shipping originating from Iranian ports being blockaded or whose manifest shows a destination to an Iranian port. A lot of the ship's manifests are online and easy to check without boarding them.

The direction does not require the Navy to stop ships who are being first to use Iranian waters to pass through the straights.
These ships aren't scared of the US Navy - annoyed, yes, but scared - no. It's just going to be yet another delay getting through the straights. They aren't going to run the "blockade
What they are afraid of are mines, drones, and other forms of missiles or torpedos

[PufPuf23]

3. Looks there is a good chance that Hormuz will re-open for

most countries except the USA and Israel.

Posted at DU:

"LONDON—European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn’t include the “belligerent” parties, meaning the U.S., Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn’t be under American command."

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143650434

What a clusterfuck has been created by Trump and Netanyahu.

My perception is that Iran will not compromise about the USA in the Persian Gulf and USA bases in the Middle East.

The petrodollar will no longer be central to oil trade.

The longer the status quo remains in place, the more global economic distress, and the more, deservingly so, the USA will be blamed.

Trump needs to go. Damage to the USA and humanity will only get worse until we put our house in order.

Israel as our "special" ally needs to go too.