California Race for Governor Still Fragmented

[applegrove]

California Race for Governor Still Fragmented

April 16, 2026 at 9:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 128 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2026/04/16/california-race-for-governor-still-fragmented/

A new Emerson College poll of the California gubernatorial primary finds Steve Hilton (R) leading with 17%, followed by Chad Bianco (R) at 14%, Tom Steyer (D) at 14%, Xavier Becerra (D) at 10%, Katie Porter (D) at 10%, Matt Mahan (D) at 5% and 23% undecided.

[spooky3]

1. As others online have pointed out, he missed the real story

a) Becerra made big gains from pre-Swalwell polls
b) lots of voters are still undecided

[karynnj]

8. An earlier article referred to needing at least 5 percent in a poll

Accepted by the people running the fist debate. Many at the bottom won't make that threshold.

For people who prioritize government experience, Bercerra ran both HHS under Biden and the AG's office. It looks like he gained a lot of Swalwell 's supporters.

Do you think the debates will be when the large percent undecided will choose

[lostincalifornia]

3. The problem is there are too many Democrats still in the race that will split the vote among themselves

Last edited Fri Apr 17, 2026, 07:43 AM - Edit history (1)

and increase the odds for a MAGA in the general, or worse, two magas as the choice. Out stupid jungle primaries.

[karynnj]

9. Could failing to get into the debates cause many to drop out?

I would guess the enormous increase in Bercerra's support and the 23 percent undecided could be what is keeping people in. Until that, 23 percent decreased a lot, they may think magic could strike.

[lostincalifornia]

10. That will be the key. After the debate, it would be nice if those unndecided drops down to 5% or less, and if the

remaining Democrats who are still polling low after the debates drop out before the primary, and get behind one or two of the Democrats who are polling well, because if that doesn't happen there is a real chance we could have a maga governor.

Right now I am leaning toward Bercerra, but after the debates, I will lean toward the Democrat that is polling closest to 15% or better, and who I think has the best chance to make the general election. That will most likely be Bercerra, Steyer, or Porter, and those Democrats who are polling less than 10% after the debates need to seriously consider dropping out, and endorsing on of the other Democrats polling 10% or better IMHO.

If the worst happens and a maga becomes governor, the only hope we have is that we maintain a super majority in the California Assembly and Senate.

Ideally though, the top two winners in the primary will be Democrats of course. That the top two leaders in the polling are the maga's right now is quite worrisome.


https://ktla.com/news/california/swalwell-exit-california-governor-race-poll/

[pinkstarburst]

12. I think it probably helps and hurts what happened with Swalwell

in terms of shaking up the remaining democrats in the race. For someone like Becerra (who I honestly wish would win), maybe it gives him a fighting chance and causes voters to give him a better look. But for the others still polling real low, they may have seen how Swalwell, who was polling the highest, could be taken out in 24 hours with the news of a scandal breaking, and think, "Hey, I should stay in this. What if the same thing happens to Porter or Steyer? They could be out next and then I could have an honest shot!"

It would be terrible if CA had a repub governor. I hope they do drop out, but I fear this is not going to happen.

[lostincalifornia]

14. Two of the things I like about Becerra, I don't see him doing any negative campaigning,

and to me he seems level headed out of all the candidates. The debate will be critical.

[pinkstarburst]

4. Really nice to see Becerra gaining

[Nixie]

11. Yes. Katie Porter keeps dropping as others surge. She should

drop out of the race. Californians saw a lot of her during her Senate run, so if she’s dropping again, she should quit to allow the party to coalesce around Becerra.

[LeftInTX]

6. He's been popping up on my FB and I live in Texas.

But I also follow Mermaidmamamaggie who is supporting him.

(She created goofy troll videos to troll Trump featuring Newsom)

[the_liberal_grandpa]

13. Different polls with different results.

here is a poll from April 14th showing Steyer at 21%

Almost a quarter of Californians have not made up their mind yet. They are either not thinking about it right now
or are waiting to see where Swalwells sponsers go.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ee26505b-573e-4077-bf28-3596b3dd8245

Yesterday I spend some time listening and reading about Tom Styer and, for the moment thats were my vote will go.

While he has never held office he has been very active in helping to improve California through sponsoring propositions.

I find him very candid and honest. He does not hide from the fact that years ago his investment company invested in things are
now though of a potentially disaqualifying. He sold his company 14 years ago and has been involved in making California a better place by sponsoring and supporting causes the will benefit Californians.

I understand the argument that he has not held office before. Neither had Mamdani but his heart is in the right place and he is doing a good job for New York.

My goal is to make sure a Democrat finishes in the top 2 spots so I will continue to watch the polls and evaluate the other candidates.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

15. There are 31 candidates on the ballot..multi repubs too