I don't understand how we are not in a recession right now.

[LymphocyteLover]

We've had mass layoffs over the past year and the job market sucks. There are increased prices everywhere. Fuel prices have obviously surged. Almost everyone has been cutting back, from universities to various industries to private households. Home building has suffered especially from the immigration crackdown.

I know the stock market is doing absurdly well, on hopes and prayers and AI dreams.

I have to think the massive building of the much-hated "data centers" is the one thing holding the economy together.

[Johonny]

1. Massive tax cuts means companies buying back

Stock going into earnings which, I assume, will look good on paper, but won't justify insanely overpriced tech market.

However, GDP growth while slow, hasn't turned negative. But remember we usually don't know we've been in a recession until 6 months into the recession. Will the war force us and the world into recession? Odds were like 40% a few weeks ago. I assume they've increased. We could just have stagflation. Low growth, high inflation. Better than the 2008 recession, not good times, though.

[NameAlreadyTaken]

2. If we don't do Covid testing,

then there are no cases!

If we don't measure economic parameters, or don't announce any, then there is no recession!

The DOW is 48,578.72! That's what we should be talking about! Not the cost of everything! Not the layoffs! And we now have AI for fake videos and wrong answers!

[sop]

9. Exactly. A "good economy" is no longer measured by how well middle and working classes are doing, only

by the prosperity of upper income Americans. When you factor that into the equation, on average, we're all doing great.

[NameAlreadyTaken]

22. I think that's been the only measure they use,

(the prosperity of upper income class), for the last 40 years.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Replenishing armaments from Ukraine War, and now Iran War

We are the Arsenal of Democracy and our own Fascism.

We use a lot of energy.

We sell a lot of $50,000++ vehicles.

Retail continues apace.

Americans spend their paychecks because they have to, and the government borrows and spends. What's the current year fiscal deficit? $2 trillion?

Almost billionaire tax cuts allow for luxury items to be sold.

Companies are panicked over AI. Fear of being left behind so they don't fire useless employees. They train them. But that chicken will come home to roost at some point.

On edit, to add ... I see some retailers adding hours, opening earlier, but also some running with skeleton crews. I heard a manager complaining this week about running the store on 3 or 4 employees, so much merchandise not being processed and put on shelves, the backroom overloaded, and having to sweep the floors herself. It wasn't she was unable to hire someone, it is being told to run on fewer headcount.

[AfternoonJoe]

4. Bubble Time

We are in a bit of an AI bubble. AI is creating all sorts of jobs (mostly around cybersecurity and controls) to mask the other job losses. Over time that will flatten and the damage will be more visible.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Credit bubble too. Car loans are increasingly in default, food is on the cuff, health insurance cancelled.

When AI efficiency slices payrolls, retail sales will plummet. The repo man will be happy!

[gab13by13]

5. I believe one main reason is that the oil markets are being manipulated

Crude oil below $100/barrel is bullshit.

There is a war in the ME,

OPEC has cut back production.

Ukraine has been bombing Russian oil infrastructure.

We are getting close to running out of jet fuel.

I believe that since Krasnov gave away the house to the fossil fuel industry, it is keeping the prices of gasoline and diesel lower than they should be. With gas at $8/gallon and diesel at $10/gal, we would certainly be in a depression, and people would be after Krasnov with pitchforks.

[MichMan]

12. States could raise their gas taxes a few dollars a gallon if $8 per gallon is a desired price point

That is why it is much more expensive in Europe.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. We may be in a recession

The jobs numbers are the biggest concern. More than a year now of basically zero new jobs created, that's like a slow moving train wreck landing on working people's heads. Expect UE to continue to rise and with it spending to fall. Growth was near zero for Q4 of 2025. Q1 will be rough too, is it negative? We will see.

The DOW has very little to do with the economy right now and even if it did, it's not like an 8% rise in 14 months is good, it's well below normal rises which average 10% plus per year the last 30 years. They're bragging about a lukewarm at best stock market.

[boston bean]

8. They are too busy ripping us off by stock market manipulation.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. It has taken a lot of work to dismantle Biden's dynamo economy

2025 Q4 GDP was barely in the black, just 0.5% growth. GDP has been steadily decreasing since Trump took office. A recession is measured as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

Unemployment is creeping up, but is still under 5%, which is generally considered “full employment” (it got up to, IIRC, 15% during COVID)

Before the Iran war, inflation was around 3.5%. Of course, it is much higher now.

Q3 ends September 30, so we could have an “official” recession by the midterms.

[maxrandb]

11. I think there is an obvious explanation

It's simply this: if a Democrat was president right now, we'd have been in a recession 3 months ago".

The billionaire class are tasked with using their immense wealth to prop up fascists. They are tasked with using their immense wealth to destroy Democracy, or anyone that supports democracy.

It's an "investment" to them. They will happily lose tens of billions propping up failed Retrumplicans, because they get hundreds of billions in return when Retrumplicans win.

Let me ask a question. Did Rush get on 2,000 radio stations, or was here put there?

They should NOT have so much power over our lives, but they do.

Fixing that is going to take more than one, or two elections.

[gab13by13]

13. Thank you,

that is what I have been trying to say.

Last week I was accused of spewing right wing talking points when I claimed that the markets, including crude oil, would be terrible if a Democrat were president.

I guess I didn't explain myself clearly enough the way you did.

[LymphocyteLover]

20. Yes, it's so exhausting

[raccoon]

14. IMO, the stock market doesn't reflect the real life economy. The stock market can look good while the average American

is struggling with rising prices on food, gas, rent, etc.

Not to mention all the layoffs going on.

[Rebl2]

15. Right

now the stock market is up over one thousand points. Why? I do not understand.

[LymphocyteLover]

19. hopes and prayers

[no_hypocrisy]

16. We probably are, but Trump fired all the experts who

would declared a recession.

[ck4829]

17. We are but we are not supposed to say it because Republicans are supposed to be double-plus-good-always for the economy

[LymphocyteLover]

18. sounds about right!

[Happy Hoosier]

21. Layoffs have not been "massive"

Yet.

Just heard an excellent analysis this AM that suggest we are in a "no fire, no hire" market that has drastically reduced worker mobility. This is potentially sustainable. BUT, if layoffs do start happeneing, it could tip the economy into a serious recession fairly quickly.

According to this analyst , our economy has been teetering on the precipice for a year (since "liberation day&quot and it could go either way. Her arguments were compelling.

[LymphocyteLover]

23. Yeah, I suppose. The tech sector and biotech fields have shed a lot of workers but maybe in the grand scheme of things

its not massive.

We are definitely teetering though.