Trump's "falling approval" in NBC News Decision Desk's poll is STILL INEXPLICABLY HIGH at 37%...

[Miles Archer]

What has fallen is Trump’s popularity. Amid growing concerns about the economy associated with the war with Iran, the new NBC News Decision Desk Poll found that 37% of adults approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 63% disapprove, 50% of whom said they disapprove strongly.

https://www.ms.now/news/trump-approval-rating-iran-war-gas-prices

[pat_k]

1. I suspect polls are failing to account for the exodus from the Republican Party when extrapolating from samples.

I don't know how to confirm or refute this, but it seems to me that pollsters generally use last year's Gallup findings on party affiliation. And those numbers, which are an average across interviews conducted throughout the year, do not account for the migration from Republican to Independent and Independent to Democrat.

The 2025 numbers
27 Democratic Party
45 Independent
27 Republican Party

As of Q1 2026 (ABC article)
30% Democratic Party
43% Independent
25% Republican Party

The 5 point spread between parties changes to a 10 point spread when you add in the "Lean" for Independents:

49% Democrat/Lean Democrat
39% Republican/Lean Republican



If polls are failing to capture the exodus from the Republican Party, that also explains why support among self-identified Republicans remains so "sticky" -- they are actually measuring the percentage support among what is a shrinking percentage of the overall.

[Blue Owl]

2. He's barely managing to fail upward anymore under the weight of his own gross incompetence

[Boomerproud]

3. It will never go below that no matter what he does.

It's crisis after crisis that would destroy any other president but it just keeps going on and on.

[thought crime]

8. You CAN fool some of the people all of the time.

[2naSalit]

4. Bullshit polls...

Have been giving us the same fucking numbers for 16 months and it ALWAYS 37%, ALWAYS.

They will not be telling the truth any time soon.

I suspect it's more like 10% at best and they are just afraid he'll retaliate if they don't show him in a still acceptable percentage when it's probably way worse.

This is why I don't give them much credence.

[Dunc]

5. Exactly

[Polybius]

6. It's not always 37%

It was in the low to mid 40s for a while in 2025. 10% is crazy low. I don't think Kim would even be that low.

[harumph]

7. Some people just want to troll the polls. I suspect the actual approval rating is around 18-20% ish.

[thought crime]

9. Has anybody done an "Elvis is Alive" count lately?

Is up to 37%?

[struggle4progress]

10. Four in 10 Americans ... think some UFOs ... have been alien spacecraft visiting Earth ...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/350096/americans-believe-ufos.aspx