Scott Macfarlane: The Very Bad Sign for Trump Unfolding in a "Lobster-shaped" Section of Virginia

[sheshe2]

JUST FILED to @meidastouch.com

The Very Bad Sign for Trump That's Unfolding in a "Lobster-shaped" Section of Virginia

open.substack.com/pub/macfarla...

— Scott MacFarlane (@macfarlanenews.bsky.social) 2026-04-19T21:07:36.655Z

The pattern is unmistakable.

And it’s ominous sign for Donald Trump’s fortunes in the one-time swing state of Virginia.

Three of the highest-profile candidates for a U.S. House seat in northern Virginia, all of whom will be vying with each other for the Democratic nomination for November, are attempting to outflank each other as the most able to fight back against Trump.

In a word cloud for Virginia’s 7th District seat, the words “FIGHT” and “TRUMP” would be largest and the two epicenters.

The top item on the campaign website resume of longtime state delegate Dan Helmer reads, “No one has taken on Donald Trump – and won – like Dan Helmer.”

https://macfarlanenews.substack.com/p/exclusive-for-all-macfarlane-news?r=69xcje&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

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Tick Tock

[2naSalit]

1. Great news...

But I don't see any lobster.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

2. Me either. Whats a lobster shape?

[Mossfern]

5. I think it's the light green one in the middle.

[carpetbagger]

19. Pink 7th

One claw ends west of Richmond, one in the Shenandoah Valley. The tail goes north to the western part of Arlington and contains heavily democratic D.C. suburbs that provide the majority D.

I think it's a scorpion.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

22. Oh i see

[sheshe2]

3. It is indeed.

And...I didn't see a lobster either! Scott must be from the mid-west.

[2naSalit]

4. Makes me wonder if he's ever seen...

An actual lobster, a whole one.

[The Madcap]

6. It's the amount of lobster I can afford...

About half of a claw.

[PCIntern]

7. Looks like it's a pussycat's head from behind

I don’t see the lobster.

Lobster joke: if you are ever at your wit’s end and assume all is lost, no matter what, think of what happened to the lobsters on the Titanic before she sank. No hope, right? There you go…!

[sheshe2]

9. Probably not.

I have. My summers as a kid were spent on Cape Cod in Provincetown. I know my seafood!

[2naSalit]

10. I knew what they were...

And looked like since I was about two, grew up on the coast of Maine and southern Cape Cod. I still remember, when I was about eight or nine, how the locals were complaining about the price of lobster going up to $0.70/lbs!

[sheshe2]

13. Yup...

the price is a tad higher these days.

Those were the days. Sometimes my mom would send us down to the Jetty to collect Mussles off the rocks for dinner!

[2naSalit]

16. We went...

Out on the flats at low tide to dig for clams. My grandfather was into having clambakes on the beach with all the cousins and aunts and uncles. He come home with three or four grocery bags full of lobsters for events, along with other seafood and corn on the cob.

Back when life was soooo much simpler.

[sheshe2]

17. Sigh, yes, it was.

Those clambakes on the beach bring back memories... good ones.

[2naSalit]

20. Hmm, yeah.

I liked the part about being a kid with no responsibilities, myself.

[greatauntoftriplets]

8. I'm from the Midwest and it didn't look like a lobster to me either.

I have some familiarity with that part of VA, and it's good to see it turn blue. Engene Vindman is the current congressman, and I'd love to see him win again.

[sheshe2]

11. Oh, I love Vindman!

[greatauntoftriplets]

15. So do I.

Alex Vindman is currently running in the primary for the Senate in Florida. I hope he wins, too.

[fujiyamasan]

12. Lobster claw?

Either way, hopefully it makes the republicans feel like they’re being lacerated and pinched by a pack of lobsters on Tuesday.

[sheshe2]

14. I like the way you think!

[ThreeNoSeep]

18. District 7

It's that lavender purplish red one. Took me a bit to see it.

[ThreeNoSeep]

21. Tail is pointing northeast and spread claws are opening to the southwest

It's not perfect, but I can see a lobster there. Plus the article literally says it is district 7.

[2naSalit]

23. I don't think...

I can squint that hard. No offense, I think it's a stretch.

Now what were they talking about?

[ProfessorGAC]

24. I See That, Too

It's an abstract lobster, but I see the same as you.

[DET]

25. To Clarify

McFarland is referencing what would be the new Virginia 7th district, which encompasses a number of current Virginia districts, including my own (the current 11th). The pink lobster is upside down on the map and tilted at about a 45 degree angle. The lobster ‘body’ includes much of Fairfax County and Arlington County, which are reliably blue. The lobster ‘claws’ include the more Western and Southern Virginia counties, which have a much more conservative pattern of voting. Generally speaking, the ‘claws’ are not happy about the redistricting effort. The proposed new 9th district on the map is blood red. I’m guessing that that will be the one new Republican district, but I don’t really know.

BTW, I grew up on Cape Cod (Massachusetts), which I did not appreciate at the time. I dearly miss the beaches, the ocean breezes, and the seafood - especially lobster.

[sheshe2]

26. Another Cape Cod'er!

I loved that place.

PS, thanks for the explanation on the map.

[Abolishinist]

27. A lobster is the best they can do? Really? I'm sorry, NOTHING can top

Gym Jordan's Daffy-Duck district!

[underpants]

29. Indeed. Va's current 1st district. Quite a reach.

Starting in the bottom right:
Poquoson is all white
York (where I mostly grew up) is mostly white. Newport News (avoided) is less white.
Across the York River into the Northern Neck is sparsely populated.
It absorbs the ‘Burg (Williamsburg- W&M College).
Wrap around Eastern Henrico and Richmond (take a guess) it hits on good ole boy Hanover, swallows up Western Henrico (us), and cuts Chesterfield County down the middle.

The differences in culture of the parts I mentioned are vast. The Peninsula and Richmond have and mostly don’t want anything to do with each other

[underpants]

28. The 7th moved away from us. It was basically the tobacco district (Bliley- Cantor-Bratt-Abbie)

Maps
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia%27s_7th_congressional_district

The 7th was basically BIG TOBACCO’s district under Bliley and then his Chief of Staff Eric Cantor. It was Western Henrico with good ole boy Hanover County avoiding black populations in Richmond and Eastern Henrico as well as branching out around Charlottesville (UVa) to add population. Cantor (“Young Lion” #2-3 in the GOP House) was a lock except the hard hard RED areas turned on him in the primary and in came Bratt. There was no Dem primary that year because- WHY? I voted in the GOP primary because I’d never miss a chance to vote against Cantor.

Then Spanberger happened. She’s from the 7th (Tucker High) and she is a force. We were in her district and my wife and I got to meet her several times —— beyond impressive. Her district moved away from us - the maps don’t show this - so she could fight tight battles in very close elections and absorb RED HOT areas.