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A More Troubling Picture of Sea Level Rise Is Coming into View (Yale Environment 360, 4/9)
https://e360.yale.edu/features/sea-level-rise-land-subsidenceA More Troubling Picture of Sea Level Rise Is Coming into View
Scientists have uncovered a “blind spot” in the research on rising seas, revealing that tens of millions of people thought safe from coastal flooding are at risk of inundation. Across much of the world, sea levels are higher than previously assumed and land is sinking faster.
By Fred Pearce • April 9, 2026
-snip-
Katharina Seeger and Philip Minderhoud, geographers at Wageningen University & Research, in the Netherlands, say seas are on average almost 1 foot higher than standard estimates, which are based on global models that assume calm seas and ignore ocean currents and the effect of winds. Sea levels are not rising faster than thought, but the baseline for future rise is considerably higher in most places.
In many of the 385 cases the pair examined, previously accepted sea levels are 3 feet or more off — almost all of them too low. They conclude that around 80 million people are today living on land in coastal areas below sea level — almost twice previous estimates — dramatically increasing the numbers at risk as sea level rise accelerates in the coming decades.
-snip-
The other new study focused on the world’s river deltas. It has long been known that many deltas are sinking under the influence of groundwater pumping. But as Robert Nicholls, climate adaptation researcher at the University of East Anglia, notes, “There have been lots of different estimates.” Data were inconsistent and based on crude, delta-wide estimates. “Now at last we have a consistent data set, with high spatial resolution.”
That data comes from Leonard Ohenhen, an earth system scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who used satellite-mounted radar to produce 3D maps of subsidence on 40 of the world’s biggest and most populous river deltas. He has found that subsidence afflicts more than half those deltas. Most startlingly, in 18 cases subsidence rates exceed those of rising tides — hence, more than doubling the effective yearly rise in local sea levels, and in some cases multiplying it tenfold.
-snip-
Scientists have uncovered a “blind spot” in the research on rising seas, revealing that tens of millions of people thought safe from coastal flooding are at risk of inundation. Across much of the world, sea levels are higher than previously assumed and land is sinking faster.
By Fred Pearce • April 9, 2026
-snip-
Katharina Seeger and Philip Minderhoud, geographers at Wageningen University & Research, in the Netherlands, say seas are on average almost 1 foot higher than standard estimates, which are based on global models that assume calm seas and ignore ocean currents and the effect of winds. Sea levels are not rising faster than thought, but the baseline for future rise is considerably higher in most places.
In many of the 385 cases the pair examined, previously accepted sea levels are 3 feet or more off — almost all of them too low. They conclude that around 80 million people are today living on land in coastal areas below sea level — almost twice previous estimates — dramatically increasing the numbers at risk as sea level rise accelerates in the coming decades.
-snip-
The other new study focused on the world’s river deltas. It has long been known that many deltas are sinking under the influence of groundwater pumping. But as Robert Nicholls, climate adaptation researcher at the University of East Anglia, notes, “There have been lots of different estimates.” Data were inconsistent and based on crude, delta-wide estimates. “Now at last we have a consistent data set, with high spatial resolution.”
That data comes from Leonard Ohenhen, an earth system scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who used satellite-mounted radar to produce 3D maps of subsidence on 40 of the world’s biggest and most populous river deltas. He has found that subsidence afflicts more than half those deltas. Most startlingly, in 18 cases subsidence rates exceed those of rising tides — hence, more than doubling the effective yearly rise in local sea levels, and in some cases multiplying it tenfold.
-snip-
Much more at the link. No paywall.
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