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Aftermath: Wall Street Is Lying to Itself by David Dayen
Sorry, Dupe https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221192150
“Buy the rumor, sell the news” has been a mantra of Wall Street for decades. The idea is that information is currency, and that having that information before it is widely known gives you an advantage. But with the war in Iran, the attitude has been more buying on hope and hype, using information from Truth Social that everybody knows the moment it’s posted. Investors are showing that they want to believe that a head of state would not be stupid enough to plunge the world into an unnecessary economic crisis. Those investors are wrong.
Are We Still at War?
I’m going to say no, not really, although the ultimate resolution is still to be determined. Donald Trump blinked again on Tuesday, announcing an indefinite extension of the cease-fire until the Iranians “can come up with a unified proposal.” Unnamed advisers came out later and told go-to regurgitator Barak Ravid that the open-ended cease-fire isn’t open-ended, but I don’t know who they think they’re convincing. Trump is not going to risk further damage to his rapidly deteriorating political position by greenlighting a full-scale attack. He’s had several opportunities to do so and demurred.
That’s of course better than the alternative. But instead, we have an “end” to the indiscriminate bombing part of the war that keeps all the economic consequences intact. The U.S. is continuing to blockade Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while seizing ships outside the Gulf that they deem as aiding Iranian exports. Iran is also attacking and seizing ships within the strait. Senior Iranian lawmakers from the hard-liner military wing are saying they will never relinquish control of the waterway, as it has become their main point of leverage, not their nuclear program. Iran is conditioning talks on lifting the blockade, and the U.S. wants to use the pain from the blockade to force talks.
What you have, then, is a recipe for an ongoing, unbreakable crisis for global shipping, something short of a war but well beyond business as usual. And if that’s the case, why is there such a preternatural calm over the public markets?
The Best Delusions Are Self-Delusions
The stock market is higher today than it was on February 28. I’ve heard a few rationales for this: day traders not caring about risks when there are short-term gains to be made, speculative bets (like shoe company Allbirds moving into AI) being impossible to resist, and a general disregard for the fundamentals. Anyway, Trump has successfully manipulated markets, continually making announcements timed to the NYSE open suggesting that the crisis has lifted, only for those plans to fade.
Are We Still at War?
I’m going to say no, not really, although the ultimate resolution is still to be determined. Donald Trump blinked again on Tuesday, announcing an indefinite extension of the cease-fire until the Iranians “can come up with a unified proposal.” Unnamed advisers came out later and told go-to regurgitator Barak Ravid that the open-ended cease-fire isn’t open-ended, but I don’t know who they think they’re convincing. Trump is not going to risk further damage to his rapidly deteriorating political position by greenlighting a full-scale attack. He’s had several opportunities to do so and demurred.
That’s of course better than the alternative. But instead, we have an “end” to the indiscriminate bombing part of the war that keeps all the economic consequences intact. The U.S. is continuing to blockade Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while seizing ships outside the Gulf that they deem as aiding Iranian exports. Iran is also attacking and seizing ships within the strait. Senior Iranian lawmakers from the hard-liner military wing are saying they will never relinquish control of the waterway, as it has become their main point of leverage, not their nuclear program. Iran is conditioning talks on lifting the blockade, and the U.S. wants to use the pain from the blockade to force talks.
What you have, then, is a recipe for an ongoing, unbreakable crisis for global shipping, something short of a war but well beyond business as usual. And if that’s the case, why is there such a preternatural calm over the public markets?
The Best Delusions Are Self-Delusions
The stock market is higher today than it was on February 28. I’ve heard a few rationales for this: day traders not caring about risks when there are short-term gains to be made, speculative bets (like shoe company Allbirds moving into AI) being impossible to resist, and a general disregard for the fundamentals. Anyway, Trump has successfully manipulated markets, continually making announcements timed to the NYSE open suggesting that the crisis has lifted, only for those plans to fade.
https://prospect.org/2026/04/23/aftermath-iran-trump-wall-street-is-lying-to-itself/
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