Checkmate in Iran

[applegrove]

Checkmate in Iran

May 10, 2026 at 10:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 477 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2026/05/10/checkmate-in-iran/

Robert Kagan: “It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.”

“Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be ‘open,’ as it once was.”

[dem4decades]

1. Trump has all the cards, he's not playing chess.

[Rver]

2. Uno cards...

[dem4decades]

4. As JL Cauvin would say, the world is playing chess, Trump is playing Go Fish.

[Retrograde]

6. It's ironic that chess was developed in Iran

at least it was in the area that is part of Iran today. Good chess players can think several moves ahead, anticipating multiple moves the opponent can make and preparing for them. Good card players also use strategy in some games. Unfortunately, I think the US powers-that-be are playing 52 Pickup.

[jimmy the one]

3. Hormuz is Irans only way to retaliate against US.

Iran did suffer immense damage in the early months march and April from US attacks.
Severe infrastructure damage, oil facilities damaged, their navy and Air Force practically destroyed, their nuclear sites bombed deep, their leadership figures assassinated, thousand of innocents killed including over 100 children, their livelihoods disrupted and their lives changed forever.

Suddenly come May trumpass wants to play nice and 'magnanimously' extend the olive branch of peace, while simultaneously threatening to reduce Iran to a glowing dot if they refuse his magnanimity.
Iran counters with surely a lot of propaganda and feeble attempts at counter attack, while inside their military and ayatollahs they are likely seething for revenge - inshallah - and about the only way they can do so is via controlling, up to blocking the Hormuz strait and threatening the sitting ducks within.
This embarrasses trump in the worlds eyes, costs american lives and assets, disrupts world economy, and costs America billions of dollars per day per the blocked channel.
Have not yet seen Irans response today Sunday, but doubt it will be long lasting if they accede.

Trumpass sought revenge first, as he claimed Iran had not suffered enough for what they've done as terrorist.
Trumpass as well should remember what Confucius said: 'Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves'.

Ps: yet the American stock markets are soaring, likely due trump related insider trading.

[jimmy the one]

5. Irans offer 'Totally unacceptable' says trumpass ... no text

Ten minutes after I posted!

[Fil1957]

7. Trump has only two options: 1: Accept Iran's demands, declare victory and leave. This is by far the best option. However

this is unlikely, since it would be a clear defeat without a way to spin it as a victory for Trump. And as we all know, he is psychologically unable to accept defeat.

2: Escalate. That's what Trump will eventually do, since the current situation regarding the strait of Hormuz is untenable, and will eventually cause the U.S. and world economy to crash.

But because of that area's geography, escalation is likely to fail, and then what? Tactical nukes? Trump is capable of pushing the button because he is a psychopath and knows he doesn't have long to live. Also, he wants to be an important historical figure, and popping off a nuke or two will surely do that.

He really shit the bed on this one.