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[blue-wave]

This message was self-deleted by its author (blue-wave) on Tue May 26, 2026, 10:45 AM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Amishman]

1. Russia isn't losing Crimea - yet

But the blueprint is there to see how it could easily happen.

Russia's supply to Crimea is the Kerch bridge and the overland route (primarily the M14 highway).

Ukraine's starting to put frequent drone pressure all the way to the land highway route.

They have eliminated most of Russia's ferry and landing ship capacity in the Black Sea.

That leaves the Kerch bridge. If it is broken, Russia then lacks any supply method of decent capacity that is not under duress.

IMO this is the general model for any battlefield victory for Ukraine - total drone domination over Russian positions to the point where resupply (men or materials) becomes impossible.