General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIndian-flagged boat sunk off Oman in latest attack on Gulf shipping
Oil is high and will climb...and the dow is at a record high. How long can this fantasy-world maintain itself as things deteriorate?
EX500rider
(12,756 posts)SamuelTheThird
(1,250 posts)It's possibly divergent factions. Therefore any deal reached for safe passage can't be trusted, meaning the Strait does not open, meaning the world goes into a deep economic crisis (not to mention fertilizer issues).
EX500rider
(12,756 posts)Every country they attack is one more who down the road will be willing to force entry/escort tankers etc
Most the Asian countries will have no choice, their countries will grind to a halt sooner or later.
SamuelTheThird
(1,250 posts)Short of a massive number troops doing a ground invasion and then occupying the entire coastline many miles in, Iran can keep launching against ships. Escorts are not going to work for multiple logistical reasons- notice how they aren't happening?
edited to add- And a ground invasion of Iran means the Gufl's oil and water infrastructure will be obliterated
Guess what? There's no military solution to this. I know certain types of rah rah America- feeling can't abide that idea, but there isn't
EX500rider
(12,756 posts)There may not be a clean one without any casualties but that is war.
You have the in going/out going vessels hug the Omani side of the straight with escorts, that gives a lot more engagement time plus adds background clutter to confuse targeting and lots of air support over the coast to blast every launcher that launches something and in between to shoot down incomings with the escorts handling anything that gets through.
SamuelTheThird
(1,250 posts)How are you going to escort 150 ships a day doing that?
Iran has the majority of their launchers still, targeting them with years' worth of munition didn't eliminate them.
The war began feb 28 and none of this has been implemented by anyone. Why would the US even have needed a ceasefire if any of what youre saying is feasible?
And once again- Iran has the trump card. Destroying the oil and water infrastructure of the gulf states.
EX500rider
(12,756 posts)Basically put Iran back in the Dark Ages.
You obviously wouldn't start with 150 ships a day.
Send some each day and as you get a hand on where the launchers are destroy them.
It's actually an easier problem than then attacking infrastructure cuz that can be ballistic missiles, harder to intercept while the ships will be attacked with cruise missiles and drones both slow and low.
SamuelTheThird
(1,250 posts)When the US Navy transited the strait earlier this month, they were attacked. Most commercial ships are not risking that, accompanied or not.
Again, if this was feasible, it would be underway now...and Asia already has fuel shortages, where are their ships?
EX500rider
(12,756 posts)The desperation hasn't started.
And yes they attacked some US destroyers and didn't get any hits.
Attacking unarmed commercial ships and well-armed warships is two different things with slow and low drones.
I bet the CIWS doesn't even break a sweat with those things.
Eko
(10,089 posts)2nd is what about mines?
3rd is convincing people to crew big, slow oil tankers.
4th is it only takes one missile, drone, mine to get through to stop the whole thing.
5th is if there are enough of these arms to occupy a destroyer what is going to protect the oil tanker.
6th Drones can be small enough so that the Aegis Combat System can only see them for about 30 miles. Using SM2's which cost about 2 million each would not be cost effective and the HELIOS Laser is not deployed yet. They have Loitering Munitions/Interceptors and Kinetic & Electronic Warfare but once again it only takes one drone getting through to make all of this too expensive in money and lives.
I could prob keep going.
Its asymmetric warfare something that even we have problems with re pretty much all war from Vietnam on.
The strait will stay closed for as long as Iran wants it to be.
leftstreet
(41,239 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(106,561 posts)The ship was carrying livestock "when a fire reportedly broke out onboard, forcing the crew to abandon ship before the vessel sank," Vanguard said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx219xwxg9no
The other news in that article:
A vessel reportedly operating as a "floating armoury" in the Gulf of Oman has been seized by Iranian military personnel, according to the maritime risk management company Vanguard.
...
Hui Chuan's operators told Vanguard it was operating as a floating armoury which stores weapons for security firms who protect ships at sea from attack by pirates.
Torchlight
(7,037 posts)US will be apologizing to the planet for three generations for what we've caused over the next three years.
Deuxcents
(27,640 posts)sarisataka
(22,808 posts)With sunken ships than the Strait of Hormuz