Democratic turnout was pretty strong in Louisiana. Can we flip it?

[Quiet Em]

Oh, Cassidy deserved to lose his seat just for being an actual doctor confirming Kennedy Jr.

[SSJVegeta]

1. If the fundraiaing for the dems can get tripled or quintupled there might be a chance

...if the dems can run on a populist platform

Outside of that, the chances are certainly less than 0

[JI7]

2. No, the problem there isn't money . It's that it's a very red state

[SSJVegeta]

3. It is a very red state because democrats have done little to appeal to people and make it otherwise.

There is no such thing as a "guaranteed red state"

You jsut sometimes have to find better ways -and more creative ways to appeal to folks.

Simply saying "im a democrat" without sellinga message that resonates with people isnt going to help win.(see McGrath in kentucky)

Money can provide an opportunity to sell a message. But if your message sucks, it wont do any good. You need to give people a reason to vote for you with the strong fundraiaing (See the Texas senate race where strong fundraising and a powerful message is putting the dem candidate in 5-10% polling leads).

Of course if your message is amazing and you cannot raise money, that also wont help do any good (see Charlie Booker in kentucky)

[JI7]

6. No, it's not messaging . Obama lost the state also. Some people are just very right wing and they have different

priorities . It's not about messaging . I mean they voted for fucking Trump for President 3 times .

[SSJVegeta]

9. Obama did not campaign in Louisiana in the GE in 2008 or 2012.

So I dont understand your comparison.

John Bel Edwards was a Dem governor of Louisiana specifically because of the messaging I am referring to. He lost his second re election narrowly in part because he dropped that messaging.

Beshear remains overwhelmingly popular in Kentucky also for the same reason.

Its almost as if appealing to working class interests is a successful strategy 😒

McGrath has a chance in Kentucky herself if she can clench the nom somehow...

(ETA I also think booker would do us all a favor if he dropped out or learned to fundraise better while taking an accounting course)

ETA Obama did however campaign in the deep red state of Indiana and won it in 2008.

[FascismIsDeath]

8. I like in a blue dot in Ohio but grew up in Southern, WV. Some places are just culturally Republican right now.

And most of the south is like that, at this point in time. No amount of money or great messaging is gonna undo deeply ingrained, cultural programming. You might pick off a seat here or there but until something earth shattering happens to upset the mindset of certain people who live in certain geographical areas, none of that matters, they WILL vote Republican. You might see polls that show that progressive ideas are more popular. But that means nothing in the voting booth.

[SSJVegeta]

10. Ossoff, Jon Bel Edwards, Talarico, Warnock, Beshear,

Stein, Cooper...

To name just a few who have overcome those cultural barriers through a broad inclusive message and strong resources to ride those resources and messaging to victory.

(At this point it is either guaranteed or almost guaranteed that Talarico will win TX. Although I might be overconfident on that one, which I will accept lol)

[FascismIsDeath]

11. Only 2 of those qualify really.

Jon Bel Edwards and Beshear...

Beshear came from a popular political family in the state and initially won against one of the most unlikeable elected politicians ever (Matt Bevin).

Jon Bel Edwards was up against David "DC Madam" Vitter and also instituted a 6 week abortion ban as governor, definitely a conserva-dem. You can run conserva-dems and win some places, Howard Dean figured that out. But it really only works during wave elections in terms of the House and Senate.

Texas isn't a red state, its a voter suppressed state. I hope Talarico wins but he is up against an entire state apparatus determined to prevent that and its been successful in preventing Dems from winning for awhile. Beto came very close. Biden probably could've won the state if they hadn't screwed over Harris county. Texas doesn't qualify. Its urban centers offset the "culturally Republican" factor by a lot but they have to fight hard to get their votes in and they've made is as impossible as they can make it.

The same could be said about Georgia, its a swing state when the voting rights are there (Stacey Abrams did a ton of work) to make that happen. When the urbans centers of Georgia don't have their votes suppressed, Georgia can lean blue, we've seen that happen already. Half of Georgia is not culturally Republican.

[SSJVegeta]

12. All count as the south or red states. You can find many ways to discount success of candidates

Im sure the same will be done this year when we see many surprises throughout the south and red states by dem candidates.

And while there are many factors that come into play, all of these candidates have two things in common: 1) a message that appeals to a broad base of support and the working class, and 2)the means to deliver that message.

(FYI the comment I was responding to specifically referenced the south as unwinnable)

[FascismIsDeath]

14. Yes but not all of them are dominated by "conservative culture". North Carolina has been in swing state territory for...

...quite awhile with its college towns and urban centers leaning more blue. Obama won it once, if you recall.

I already talked about why Texas and Georgia are different.

South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Kentucky (despite the Beshear aberration), Tennessee (outside of Memphis), West Virginia, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Mississippi, etc have all become very difficult, if not impossible in some districts, for Dems to win there. I know these people. I grew up around them. Many of them are my family. They believe we are a bunch of "baby killing, devil worshipers". You can't really work with that.

[SSJVegeta]

17. Obama nearly won missouri and had a Dem Governor and senator fairly recently.

Bill Clinton is from Arkansas and it has had two dem senators until the early 2010s. Same with Louisiana btw.

I absolutely respect your point about the uphill battles.

But all states are winnable with the right strategy and the fact we can find dems in each of these states that have found ways to do that, I think reinforces the fact it can be done. The messages appealed to the working classes (manchin included) because the working class voted for them.

Every state is a purple state. And while institutional barriers are part of the reason parties may struggle, it os far from the only barrier, and not one that cant be overcome.

[FascismIsDeath]

25. You are talking about events that happened 1-2 generations ago though.

Obama's last run was 14 years ago. Bill Clinton hasn't ran for anything in 30 years. In my initial post, I said "at this point in time" for a reason.

I think the election of Obama drove a lot of people crazy. West Virginia use to be a solid conserva-dem state, but between the downfall of the unions, the racism translating into voting after Obama's wins and especially after the rise of Trump, its arguably the reddest state in the country now.

Missouri, same issue, it was quite purple, now its quite red.

Obama will probably always be among the top of the list of leaders I admire the most. But a lot of the local yokels couldn't deal with a black man proving their preconceived notions wrong and the culture wars reignited as a backlash to that.

[SSJVegeta]

26. But my point is to examine how they became that way in the first place

And how they were lost.

We are nearing another massive 70-90s realignment and I think it has more to do with the parties being unable to think outside the box when these realignments happen than most other things...

Basically I think the idea of "red" and "blue" states are a false dichotomy.

[standingtall]

23. Andy Beshear is not the only Democratic Governor of Kentucky in recent memory

sense the State began moving right Kentucky has maintained a history of preferring Democratic Governors. His dad Steve Beshear and Governor Patton before him. Secondly the Demographics of Kentucky starting to shift, because the far eastern and western part of the State are having population decline while the golden triangle of Louisville,Lexington and the Cincinnati suburbs are growing in which Andy Beshear invested heavily in. Hardin County is also beginning to shift towards the left Beshear almost won it last time despite that literally being the part of the State his opponent Daniel Cameron was from. Warren County Bowling the States 3rd largest City is also growing and Beshear won it too.

[FascismIsDeath]

27. Kentucky is a lot like West Virginia with the exception that it has a real actual city or 2 with and isn't as white.

I'm aware that there are some demographical changes there and it would be nice if it were shifting.

But its another state where, because of a strong union coal miner's union presence in the past, it could lean more Democratic at times.

Both Kentucky and West Virginia have a storied history with the fight for unionization and Democrats benefitting from being on the side of labor during that era. But once out of state corps starting buying up the mining operations, dismantling unions and automating coals jobs nearly out of existence, a lot started to change. There may be hope for Kentucky yet, but as a native WVian, I don't feel any hope for a substantial change there for a long, long time.

[standingtall]

18. If Texas is not a red State, but a suppressed State

I don't see why the same couldn't be said about Louisiana. Louisiana has over 31% African American, population and 7 to 8% Latino. The Demographics are there to flip Louisiana. State wide races can't be gerrymandered. Louisiana is also the State that Hughie Long held a Senate seat and his descendants held all the way up until the late 80s or early 90s. So I doubt progressive ideology is extinct in that State. Doesn't mean we will be successful this election cycle, but there is certainly a path to flip Louisiana.

[FascismIsDeath]

24. All of those southern states suppress the black vote.

But my point on Texas is that is has 35 million people with urban centers sprawled out all over the places. Texas is the most turnable of them all if it weren't for the systematic lockdown they have on voting there.

[JI7]

13. Ossoff and Warnock would have no chance in Louisiana.

Bel Edwards ran as much more conservative than them. You are ignoring a lot of things about the states and why they become more/less red or blue.

It's not message.

[SSJVegeta]

15. Instituional and cultural barriers exist. I get it.

But Edward's absolutely ran on a message appealing to the working class. That doesnt mean he ran as a liberal. But it does mena he ran on a message that appealed to the general population. Which is what might point is.

Examples include:

Expanding Healthcare Access: His most impactful move was expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. This provided life-saving health coverage to hundreds of thousands of low-income working Louisianans, drastically reducing the state's uninsured rate.Prioritizing Public Education: He secured the first pay raises for public school teachers in a decade, fully funded the TOPS college scholarship program, and invested heavily in early childhood education.Military and Personal Background: As a West Point graduate and former U.S. Army Ranger, his patriotic and military background resonated strongly with working-class patriotism and traditional values.Championing Economic Equity: He consistently advocated for a higher minimum wage, equal pay for women, and workplace policies that protect working families.Traditional Values: As a pro-life, practicing Catholic, his political philosophy aligned with many of the social and moral values held by working-class, rural, and religious voters.Economic Stewardship: He worked across the aisle to eliminate massive state budget deficits, leaving the state with budget surpluses and historical lows in unemployment without implementing harsh cuts to core public services

[JI7]

16. Which Democrats don't run on supporting the working class ?

[SSJVegeta]

19. Perhaps you misunderatand me. I did not say there is trouble supporting the working class by dems

There is trouble appealing to the working class. Those are two different things. Every candidate that wins in a state with heavy institutional barriers against them (like Edward's in LA) did so by appealing to the working class successfully.

Any candidate that loses in that position (D or R) , simply failed to do that.

[JI7]

20. Bel Edwards opposed abortion rights

[SSJVegeta]

21. Yes. One of the reasons he appealed to the working class there.

He also supported expanding healthcare and public education to name two vitally important policies that appealed to, and helped the working class materially.

[JI7]

22. Yes, and abortion restrictions hurt the working class economically

especially women. So they are just voting on the usual shit.

I have no problem with Democrats supporting shitty things to win in red states as long as they can be better in any way than Republicans and they always are.

But people here celebrated Mary Landrieu losing and that's the problem.

People ignoring state and local level political reality is what I can't stand.

[EdmondDantes_]

4. In theory, but it will be tough

It helps Trump isn't on the ballot, that I would assume an angry response from black voters, and we are generally highly out performing previous elections. But I suspect it will be hard to have the candidates who have the connections in many of the new districts yet given the short time frame. I suspect 2028 is more likely to have higher odds of flipping seats in some southern states.

[sop]

5. Democratic turnout in the Louisiana Senate Primary was lower than Republican turnout.

Approximately 37% of all registered Republican voters in Louisiana voted in their Senate primary, and about 32% of all registered Democrats voted in their Senate primary.

[JI7]

7. The state also lost a large number of the black population after Katrina and they haven't returned