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Tom Sullivan/G. Elliot Morris: Go For the Knock Out
https://digbysblog.net/2026/05/19/go-for-the-knockout/Sullivan examines G. Elliot Morris’s analysis of the latest approval and generic ballot polls, focusing on independent and 2024 non-voters.
Fascinating, exciting stuff- double digit swings towards the Dems (supported not only by polls, but actual elections over the past year.)
Sullivan:
The larger story lies in the swing among independents and non-voters. Independents now favor Democrats by an 18-point margin. Americans whio stayed home in 2024 now favor Democrats by a 31-point margin. Other polling Morris examined back up those estimates. That’s where this gets really interesting:
(Morris):
And the GOP’s deficit among 2024 non-voters really matters, for two reasons. First, because many of them will vote this year. Midterm turnout always falls short of presidential years, but tens of millions of 2024 non-voters will still cast ballots — and Democrats have held an enthusiasm advantage in our polling all year. Nine in ten registered voters in the Times poll say they plan to participate in November, and Democratic voters are eight points more likely than Republicans to say they are “almost certain” to turn out. Second, the non-voter shift represents a huge swing from 2024.
[…]
Today, the Democratic margin among non-voters is +20 points — a 24-point shift since 2024. That is the largest pro-Democratic swing in any subgroup of the electorate we measure, and it has been at or above double digits in nine of our eleven monthly polls.
Americans who pay the least attention to politics were Trump’s strongest supporters in 2024 — and they have moved against him at roughly twice the rate as everyone else since.
The reason is straightforward: low-engagement voters react more directly to lived economic conditions and are less likely to filter their views through partisan news or social media sources. Non-voters and weakly-engaged independents are less likely to evaluate the economy through the lens of partisan content creators and which party is in charge, and more likely to be reacting to the price of groceries or gas at the pump.
The larger story lies in the swing among independents and non-voters. Independents now favor Democrats by an 18-point margin. Americans whio stayed home in 2024 now favor Democrats by a 31-point margin. Other polling Morris examined back up those estimates. That’s where this gets really interesting:
(Morris):
And the GOP’s deficit among 2024 non-voters really matters, for two reasons. First, because many of them will vote this year. Midterm turnout always falls short of presidential years, but tens of millions of 2024 non-voters will still cast ballots — and Democrats have held an enthusiasm advantage in our polling all year. Nine in ten registered voters in the Times poll say they plan to participate in November, and Democratic voters are eight points more likely than Republicans to say they are “almost certain” to turn out. Second, the non-voter shift represents a huge swing from 2024.
[…]
Today, the Democratic margin among non-voters is +20 points — a 24-point shift since 2024. That is the largest pro-Democratic swing in any subgroup of the electorate we measure, and it has been at or above double digits in nine of our eleven monthly polls.
Americans who pay the least attention to politics were Trump’s strongest supporters in 2024 — and they have moved against him at roughly twice the rate as everyone else since.
The reason is straightforward: low-engagement voters react more directly to lived economic conditions and are less likely to filter their views through partisan news or social media sources. Non-voters and weakly-engaged independents are less likely to evaluate the economy through the lens of partisan content creators and which party is in charge, and more likely to be reacting to the price of groceries or gas at the pump.
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