Climate Change- Fiction vs Fact

[SamuelTheThird]

[nitpicked]

1. And this is June 2026

What about August 2026?

[SamuelTheThird]

2. we're cooked

NO! It's going to keep getting hotter year-on-year, decade-by-decade

Until we stop pumping out greenhouse gases and positive feedback loops and tipped tipping points have finished with us

And the temperature will stay elevated for many thousands of years

www.theguardian.com/world/video/...

— Prof Bill McGuire (@profbillmcguire.bsky.social) 2026-06-24T07:55:38.636Z

[31j20b3]

3. JUst be clear, climate refers to long-term trends in weather over many years...

Europe is having unusually hot weather, the leverage of that hot weather on a couple decades of historic data is likely to be much smaller than the record breaking drama we're witnessing. That's just how the math goes....

And that isn't to deny climate change, there are certainly observable trends supporting global warming.

As analysis of this is conducted, we'll get to understand just how much these days has bent the long-term trajectory, which undoubtedly is being modelled against what is known to be a non-linear upward curving trend. I think that will be available in pretty short order, probably in press by autumn

[SamuelTheThird]

4. We already know climate change is affecting this

It's not like there haven't been plenty of studies showing increased heat waves as CO2 emissions have increased.

We are in deep shit. Climate scientists (the people who spend their lives studying this) are more alarmist in their private discussions than even in their public ones.

I fail to see what the real point of your reply is.

[31j20b3]

5. It;s not a question of whether climate change is at work... it's a question of honest representation

of these events in our thinking.

There are, indeed unquestionably, increasing trends in global warming (as well as related correlates in other measurables). My point here is when you put 2 weeks of record temps into a 20 year dataset, the impact will be real, but not anywhere near as dramatic as what the extreme weather events represent.

Curve fitting, even to non-linear models IS impacted by the mass of data involved. Television and the media see things as patterns across DAYS, climate is measured against data from thousands of days.

Avoiding the most hypeventilating news is the point. The numbers will soon be in on how these days actually bent the existing "fitted curve" of climate data. Even small bends that wouldn't bother an average person without climate training eye-balling the differences, are still important.

I'm not saying that climate change isn't real. I'm not saying that a period of record temps won't bend the curve very much. I'm saying that tbending won't look like the kind of thing that has NBC news readers pushing dramatic pictures of extremes.

[SamuelTheThird]

6. Nah, sounds like youre minimizing

The tell is your claim that mainstream news is 'hyperventilating', when in fact it tends to downplay climate change dangers. I'll go with what actual climate scientists say rather than someone here with a veiled agenda, thanks.

[31j20b3]

7. Well I admit to de-catrastrophizing the horrors pushed on television

On top of a statistically fit non-linear curve of 20 years of daily temperature maximums, a couple of weeks is just not going to have much leverage to bend the curve. For France, it would undoubtedly clearly show climate change to a person able to appreciate the analysis.

If you arbitrarily shorten the reporting time-frame, which minimizes the leverage of old data, and maximizes that of recent data, there will be a bigger impact on the curve-fitting

But Climatologists do have rules that constrain researchers to publishing based on "best" methods, and looking at a week as significant to climate is not a best method.

When it's done correctly, the data show climate change, but it's done using the same methods across much more than 100 years of data

The balance of gases, and the presence of certain microorganisms in ice-samples takes us back tens of thousands of years. Against that mass of data, 2 weeks of hot weather, even record hot weather hardly shows up as a blip

[SamuelTheThird]

8. 'de-catastrophizing the horrors pushed on television'?

Climate scientists believe climate change IS catastrophic. Where've you been?

The heat is directly related to climate change.

MARTIN: So what's causing such frequent heat emergencies across Europe?

FRANCIS: Yeah. So it's an interesting situation over there. You really have to look at the oceans to understand why it's warming so fast in Europe. If you look at the water surrounding Western Europe right now, and that includes the Mediterranean, the eastern Atlantic off of Spain and France and even in the Arctic up near Svalbard and Scandinavia, you'll see that the ocean temperatures are way above normal. So that's kind of the most local effect. That very warm water there is sort of priming the system for having heat waves during the summertime. And just overall warming in the globe is also shifting temperature ranges everywhere to warmer. And that just increases the likelihood of also seeing extreme warm temperatures.

https://www.npr.org/2026/06/24/nx-s1-5867702/how-climate-change-is-influencing-europes-record-breaking-heat-wave

Oceans will keep heating up, which will worsen land temps. Why do you want to ignore this?

[31j20b3]

9. To Be clear, if it bleeds it leads US media, the same with devastation

if it produces anxiety it gets coverage. Two weeks of people suffering from the heat IS the Sexy shit on television

TO help you understand... thing about 2 weeks of temps ten degrees F above normal. That's 140 degrees over 10 days. Divide 140 degrees by 3650 days over ten years. The result is SMALL but that's the excess leverage. That small leverage is what will move aa statistical analysis of climate.

NOw in a real analysis it would be excess degrees over a measures area over days against the area aand same time for global measurements

But I wanted to present the general idea of my perspective. The swings in temperature MUST be taken in the context of the timeframes (and typically continental sized areas) used in discussing global climate.

Meterology, especially television reported meteorology lives on the thrill of the reporting... climate is powerful, small swings are very powerful, but they don't make exciting television.

[SamuelTheThird]

10. Yeah, again, I'll listen to climate scientists

Can you find me a single one of any note saying we are hyping up climate change, that reporting on record heat waves is antithetical to good climate science?

I'm gonna hazard that's a big fat no.

Plus, the thing I posted directly contradicts your claim. The media was soft-selling future temps by putting them out to 2050. lol so your entire point is moot.