The saddest graph you値l see today

[spanone]

The above graphic, passed along by the Huffington Post‘s Laura Bassett, was put together by the Enliven Project using data from Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey and FBI reports. It drives home extremely well the fact that false rape accusations are exceedingly rare, despite what media reports might suggest. Almost as rare are cases when rapists actually go to jail.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/07/the-saddest-graph-youll-see-today/?tid=pm_pop

[Marie Marie]

1. Unbelievable.

And if that chart represents the rapists, you have to figure that there is more than one victim associated with each of them since most of them are repeat offenders.

[harmonicon]

37. Of course it doesn't though.

They didn't get the numbers by surveying rapists. So, with your same logic, it means there are likely far fewer, and I have no idea how they make the claim that false accusations of rape are so rare if it seems that so many of the accused are not guilty.

We have a system of justice in this country. It still applies to rape, not just other crimes.

[yardwork]

78. If you have no idea how the group reached their conclusions, why are you so sure that they are wrong

[harmonicon]

81. Read down the thread.

It's not an argument I'm going to rehash here long after most discussion in this thread has ended.

[yardwork]

83. I see no data supporting your statement in this thread.

[LisaLynne]

2. That's sickening.

Just ... gross.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Rape is a serious crime. That's good info. But its not that easy.

This is from the Forensic Examiner. (Sources for all numbers in the post can be found at the posted link.)

Full report can be found here.
http://www.theforensicexaminer.com/archive/spring09/15/

Excerpts from article:

Of the 90,427 forcible rapes reported in 2007, 40% were cleared by arrest or "exceptional means" (FBI, 2008d) with 23,307 of those being arrests (FBI, 2008b). Clearance of a report by exceptional means occurs when the known suspect dies before an arrest is made, when the victim refuses to provide the information or assistance necessary to follow an investigation through to an arrest, or when the known suspect is being held in another jurisdiction for a different crime and extradition is denied. In order to clear a case by exceptional means, the officers must have an identified suspect, know where he can be found, and have enough evidence for a legal arrest.

Degrees of "Not True"

A certain percentage of rape complaints are classified as "unfounded" by the police and excluded from the FBI's statistics. For example, in 1995, 8% of all forcible rape cases were closed as unfounded, as were 15% in 1996 (Greenfeld, 1997). According to the FBI, a report should only be considered unfounded when investigation revealed that the elements of the crime were not met or the report was "false" (which is not defined) (FBI, 2007).

This statistic is almost meaningless, as many of the jurisdictions from which the FBI collects data on crime use different definitions of, or criteria for, "unfounded." That is, a report of rape might be classified as unfounded (rather than as forcible rape) if the alleged victim did not try to fight off the suspect, if the alleged perpetrator did not use physical force or a weapon of some sort, if the alleged victim did not sustain any physical injuries, or if the alleged victim and the accused had a prior sexual relationship. Similarly, a report might be deemed unfounded if there is no physical evidence or too many inconsistencies between the accuser's statement and what evidence does exist. As such, although some unfounded cases of rape may be false or fabricated, not all unfounded cases are false.

SNIP

Although there is no doubt that false rape allegations occur, it is extremely difficult to determine what percentage of rape reports is intentionally false. This is due to many factors, including jurisdictional variation in definition, criteria, and reporting practices, as well as the fact that not all rapes are reported. Although the FBI had set 8% as the average rate of false (actually, unfounded) accusations during the late 1990s, there is remarkable variation in the estimates of false allegations of rape found in the literature (Kanin, 1994; Epstein, 2005). A review of those studies on false rape accusations conducted between 1968 and 2005 showed a percentage range from 1-90% (Rumney, 2006).

Very little formal research has been conducted on the prevalence of false allegations of rape. One study looked at the 109 cases of forcible rape that were disposed of in one small midwestern town between 1978 and 1987 (Kanin, 1994). The given town was specifically selected for study because the police department used a uniquely objective and thorough protocol when investigating rape complaints. Among other procedural safeguards, officers did not have the discretion to drop rape investigations if they concluded the complaint was "suspect" or unfounded. Every rape accusation had to be thoroughly investigated and included offering a polygraph to both the accuser and the accused. Cases were only determined to be false if and when the accuser admitted that no rape occurred.

The researchers further investigated those cases that the police, through their investigation, had ultimately determined were "false" or fabricated. During the follow-up investigation, the complainants held fast to their assertion that their rape allegation had been true, despite being told they would face penalties for filing a false report. As a result, 41% of all of the forcible rape complaints were found to be false. To further this study, a similar analysis was conducted on all of the forcible rape complaints filed at two large midwestern public universities over a 3-year period. Here, where polygraphs were not offered as part of the investigatory procedure, it was found that 50% of the complaints were false.

Charles P. McDowell, a researcher in the United States Air Force Special Studies Division, studied the 1,218 reports of rape that were made between 1980 and 1984 on Air Force bases throughout the world (McDowell, 1985). Of those, 460 were found to be "proven" allegations either because the "overwhelming preponderance of the evidence" strongly supported the allegation or because there was a conviction in the case. Another 212 of the total reports were found to be "disproved" as the alleged victim convincingly admitted the complaint was a "hoax" at some point during the initial investigation. The researchers then investigated the 546 remaining or "unresolved" rape allegations including having the accusers submit to a polygraph. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of these complainants admitted they had fabricated their accusation just before taking the polygraph or right after they failed the test. (It should be noted that whenever there was any doubt, the unresolved case was re-classified as a "proven" rape.) Combining this 27% with the initial 212 "disproved" cases, it was determined that approximately 45% of the total rape allegations were false.

SNIP

The Cost of the Crime
In most jurisdictions the accuser must admit that the accusation was false before the charges against the suspect will be dropped. Yet before the accuser decides to recant, the life of the falsely accused may have been disrupted, if not destroyed. They may have suffered any number of inequities, such as being arrested and questioned; dealing with the expense of hiring an attorney; being subjected to time in jail; having trouble with their employer; and fall-out with family and friends, to name just a few.Even if the case is dropped, the reputation of the falsely accused may be irreparably harmed, because some people may believe the retraction was "pressured," and not true.

Worse yet for the accused, the case may go to trial. Even if the falsely accused are acquitted, technically that does not mean they are innocent, only that they could not be found guilty. Regardless of the outcome of a criminal trial, the accuser can pursue civil action against the accused, resulting in further loss of resources. The worst possible outcome for those falsely accused of rape might be conviction and incarceration.

There is no way of knowing the number of defendants who have been convicted of rape on the basis of a false allegation. One study found 28 cases in which the defendant had been convicted and served an average of 7 years in prison before being exonerated by DNA evidence (Connors et al., 1996). Of note, all 28 cases involved sexual assault with the trials taking place in the mid- to late- 1980s when DNA was not routinely tested. According to the Innocence Project, since 2000 there have been 156 cases of post-conviction exonerations based on DNA testing, an untold number of which involved sex crimes (Innocence Project, 2008). The average time the wrongfully convicted person served prior to release was 12 years. Regardless of the exact number, processing those who have been falsely accused of rape is a clear waste of legal, judicial, and penal resources.

Essentially, there are no formal negative consequences for the person who files a false report of rape. Not only did the false allegation serve a purpose for the accusers, they actually never have to fully admit to themselves, their family, or their friends that the report was a lie. Although there are grounds for bringing legal action against the accuser, it is virtually never done. Even should a charge be filed, in most jurisdictions filing a false report is only a misdemeanor.


End of excerpts.



The link above is a good read if the thread is going to be fair about the topic. Giving rape statistics such as what was listed in the OP can be very misleading and is subject to a great deal of debate. This is one reason why during rape trials, key statistics such as % of rapes being reported as false are usually not allowed. Such numbers can vary wildly based on objectivity and how the data is gathered. The truth is (on all sides) that nobody really knows. So to publish data as absolute truth (as the Huffington Post/Washington Post apparently did) is not factually accurate our sound journalism.

[caseymoz]

54. There are various problems with all of these.

I noted one in particular below. The ones involving DNA exonerations were not representative cases. Most rapes are not committed by strangers, but by somebody the woman knew. In DNA exonerations, the accused is cleared over a question of identity, in other words, it was a stranger. That's not a matter of false accusations or a false report, that's a matter of witness unreliability and mis-identification, a totally different subject, and it's somewhat misleading to include it in the discussion.

I think the DOJ National Crime Victimization Survey has the right method: take a large representative sample of households, and simply ask people if they were ever falsely accused of rape, and ask if they ever made a false rape charge. That takes any purported reward/punishment motivation out of it, and bypasses the noise that a Law Enforcement investigation introduces.

And the result is detailed in the graphic given above, because the NCVS is the main source used to compile it.

[WCLinolVir]

67. Where to start as to why this is such a bad post.

I can't believe that you actually posted this without qualifying any of it. I won't even bother addressing all of the holes in it. I'll just start with an alleged victim saying yes, it was a hoax. The climate that a rape survivor has to cope with, especially in the military, where they have intentionally made it very difficult for women to pursue charges, is by all accounts, incredibly hostile. I just can not get over how you completely skip the obvious and do not bother with the methodology employed here. I'm going to have to guess since none of it is actually stated. This is the shoddiest piece of journalism(?) for qualifying rape statistics I've ever seen. And as a rape survivor, I've done a lot of reading. As someone with two medical degrees, I've also read a lot of test data and investigative studies. This fails miserably.
"In most jurisdictions the accuser must admit that the accusation was false before the charges against the suspect will be dropped."
Oh really??? Maybe you should actually go through a rape and see how you are treated lady. Where do you get your statistics?? The girl in Ohio comes to mind.
I just get a real sense of a rape denial here. But that's ok, I know you would rather think it really isn't that bad for us out here, but the truth is, it is.
Misleading??
Do you know how hard it is to get someone to take your case for a civil rape trial without deep pockets or name recognition?? Pull your head out of your a**. You are lucky to get a report filed with the police without attitude and insinuation. I know, I've been there at the hospital rooms when the victim comes in. But I bet you have not.
"Worse yet for the accused, the case may go to trial".
Let's hope so. Let's hope that person gets their day in court. Fair and square. But you seem to miss the preponderance of cases that never see a court room, because the victim is not supported. The victim is discouraged, harassed, blamed and shamed. The police say there is nothing they can do.
I hope you never, ever post this crap again.

[WCLinolVir]

76. If you are actually saying that women were threatened with PROSECUTION for reporting a rape-

Then given a lie detector test, which are notoriously UNRELIABLE and subject to manipulation through the kinds of questions asked, environment etc..., and somehow you are not surprised that some of them fail, although we don't see the methodology employed here, we can guess. This article you cite has more holes than swiss cheese. You obviously do not understand what constitutes a competent study. So to publish this crap as absolute truth is not accurate or sound journalism.

[aaaaaa5a]

6. Your son is really lucky! I'm glad everything worked out okay.

But that's not the case for everyone. If you actually do objective research on the topic you can quickly get into some real scary, and dangerous situations with very unjust outcomes.

[Swagman]

44. you are correct. I know someone falsely accused and it cost them about tens time what it cost you

and similar happened : the liar was set free even though they basically were attempting to pervert the course of justice.

My friend suffers still (it's been 16 years) is scared to be alone with a female. The false accuser has probably forgotten.

[caseymoz]

51. And I can't believe the statistics cited.

Last edited Wed Jan 9, 2013, 12:56 AM - Edit history (1)

Not for a second. Sorry, 41 percent of reported rape accusations being false reminds me of pro-gunner statistics that a million crimes are thwarted by citizen use of firearms per year, or that 100 percent of strippers get sexually assaulted, or that there are a half-million trafficked minors working in the sex industry.

As far as I'm concerned, that's an extraordinary claim. It requires extraordinary proof. Not just a few studies depending on the word of law enforcement.

No, there's no way false accusations are that close in number to true ones. Forty percent of women are malicious and will hurt you even though doing so involves her taking months or years of hassle and humiliation. That requires a reality check. I think I've rarely, if ever, met a person like that, male or female.

Even if it's based only on victim retractions, the problem with using that as the standard is this: if you argue that she could lie in making the accusation, she can also lie about the retractions. The article cited the fact that the particular police department was very thorough: might the trauma of thorough investigation cause a higher number of false retractions? I think there's a strong case to be made that it could. Most rape victims cite the worst trauma is simply not being believed. That provides extra difficulty for investigating cases.

When you have a stat like that, it indicates there's either been a major methodological error, or somebody just made the stat up, and it's been quoted forever. I go with the methodological error. Something was wrong with the statistics provided by police. It might be that the investigators came to the conclusion the accusation was false. However, in this case, it's a matter of the criteria itself. The retraction, not the accusation, might be the lie.

However, people believe what they want to believe. If these stats didn't set off your bullshit alarm, I'm thinking you're numb to the counter-proposition: that false reports are rare. There's not to much reward for lying about it, and not much could explain such a lie.

I think the NCVS has it right. And they arrived at the statistics through large surveys independent of law enforcement by asking men if they've ever been falsely accused. That number is reflected in the graphic by the OP. That's close to the actual number of false accusations.

[Swagman]

58. I have no idea what the real figures are but I recall the dodgy US Attorney General claimed

there were '50,000 predators online at any one time".

The figure was re-produced for years by serious publications with no proof cited apart from the FBI who could never back it up.

In the 1950s there were "50,000 members of the Communist Party" according to McCarthy.. there are lies and damned statistics and I need a lot more than a graph to convince me.

I like hard evidence and while the Enliven Group's website looks like it has good ideals it's very thin on actual evidence.

It also seems to me there is a determined bid to downplay false accusations for some odd reason.

I have no doubt rape and sexual assault figures are shocking...but women can be as nasty and vicious as men and capable of lying.

[caseymoz]

60. 50,000 predators online

that's another one.

Of course women could be as nasty as men and just as lying, but the question is, how many women? How many false reports of any other crime are made, by women or men?

Women who say they've been raped and never reported it have also said that having people doubt their word on it is traumatic, especially from friends. Think of what you're saying, and exactly what it implies when you question if she's telling the truth about something like that. How often do police question the truth of other accusers?

I know trying to be sensitive to that might make rape investigations much more difficult, but I doubt there's an effort to downplay it. That is, other than from women who've suffered an attack and were discouraged due to fear of being doubted.

There's also the problem, that you could see above, in that false accusations might be a vanishingly small number of all rapes, but by definition, they're a significant number of reported rapes. Women who never reported their rape are going to feel dishonored because they probably didn't simply because they were afraid of disbelief.

I think two percent of reported rapes being false is actually a quite significant number. It has a lot of anecdotal power when you consider the number of men who falsely claim to have been falsely accused. Arguably, that number might be as high or higher.

[Swagman]

12. I'm always reluctant to get involved with these discussions but I think a false allegation is so

very easy to make and often impossible to defend.

As I now live in the UK I really cannot comment on US cases but one thing disturbs me in the UK : there is provision for very good compensation payments to be received and historic abuse cases seem to be numerous in the UK.

While I have no idea of the truth of the matter but the recent late BBC DJ Jimmy Savile case there are allegedly over 500 people making claims. I simply cannot get my head around the fact that over 500 people say they were raped by this man and none of them (apart from 2 which were investigated in 2007 and police found no evidence) came forward in the 40 years these assaults are alleged to have occurred.

But anything is possible.

In Germany they dropped government cash compensation a few years ago and replaced that with ongoing treatment for life if necessary in rape cases and the figures for rape dropped quite a lot.

None of this proves or disproves anything : anyone genuinely assaulted needs every assistance possible and the perpetrators to face the full fury of the law.

We also need fully trained police officers as well.

there needs to be ongoing education in schools and lots of discussion.

[caseymoz]

15. Yes, you can have a reward system that generates more false reports.

But the US doesn't have one of those.

I think this figure is about right.

[aaaaaa5a]

27. Actually, the U.S. does have an awards program. nt

[caseymoz]

29. Which is?

Last edited Tue Jan 8, 2013, 04:15 PM - Edit history (1)

If it's the ones I'm thinking you'll cite, I'd say they're bullshit, but go on.

[aaaaaa5a]

35. Excuse me. I didn't know this was a competition of "esp" mind games.

I thought it was a discussion about a very serious topic. But I suppose I was wrong.


You said in your prior post that there basically was no reward for a false rape accusation. That is not true. Now, to be clear nobody is saying they get a million dollars. Such claims are ridiculous. But to say there are no rewards in our penal system for a woman who see's through a false rape accusation is false. I know this. And apparently despite your disposition, you know this too.


Hey, I don't even know who you are. Its nothing personal. I'm just introducing important facts into what should be a very important topic for everyone.

[caseymoz]

38. All I did was ask you to elaborate.

Your post included no facts, just a declaration. I admit I was terse, but so was your message. Even if I "know this too," how could I ever know if you're talking about different ones than I am? So, if I start writing about the ones that I guess you mean, and they're not the ones you're talking about, that would be a big waste of time, wouldn't it?

I apologize for not being clear enough in the post you answered. I was referring to another post in this thread that mentioned automatic compensation for rape victims some countries had in their justice system. I meant the US had no rewards built directly into the justice system. Such as, in Germany, they had an automatic compensation of the victim by the perpetrator, without a civil trial. When they got rid of that, the rate of reported rapes went down, so I read here.

When you talk about rewards for "a woman who see's through a false rape accusation" do you mean "sees through" as in "detects?" I'm not being picky here, my first version of this paragraph had to be rewritten because I thought that's what you meant. Since that would be a totally different thing, I'm going to go with your meaning, "see it through to conviction."

Overall, no, there isn't. Making a rape accusation is a huge hassle and ordeal for the accuser in every way, and usually it's futile because the accused is almost never convicted and almost never goes to prison. Why, in general, would there be any motivation to make a false accusation?

Now, there might be a few cases where there might be a possible reward, and few others where the false accuser mistakenly thinks there is. But those are rare exception, and I think that's reflected in the graphic above.

That graphic up there shows this: less than 2% of the rape accusations are false, and there's one false accusation for every 1,000 actual rapes. (I'm just eyeballing it). That should tell you how "rewarding" a false accusation is.

But in case you're still skeptical, I'll go through it. There are three reasons I could think of for making a false accusation: monetary, revenge, or "buyer's remorse."

Monetary: if the guy has money, he could afford a good lawyer who will know what the trial and conviction rates are on rape. That lawyer will advise the guy accurately that she has more to fear from making the accusation than he does. In general, there's almost no chance that she'll win.

Revenge: I suppose some accusers are stupid enough to think this will hurt the accused more than it does them. Refer to the conviction rates above, and note that this will probably have even less of a chance to win because the case is likely to look shakier.

"Buyer's remorse": This almost never happens. Only two things can account for it when it does: miscommunication or mental illness. Either the woman never gave consent when the guy thought it was clear, or she was uncertain about her own consent to begin with. There's only one thing that explains the latter: mental illness.

(And then there's the fact that the accused can be mentally ill or could mistake consent.)

In other word, yes an accuser could believe, despite facts, that there's something in it for them to make a false rape accusation: if they're stupid-greedy, plain stupid or crazy.

Otherwise, no, there's practically never any real reward in making a false accusation. However, there are stupid-greedy, plain stupid and crazy people out there. So, false accusations happen, in rare cases, anyway.

There's no reason to expect any accusation of rape is false, though.

[Swagman]

42. not according to those who put it together as the update shows

far too serious a subject and damaging when people 'think' it may be right.

[caseymoz]

47. What's it? And what update?

Who are you saying is damaging and what people think what (that second it) may be right?

I'm not trying to be sarcastic. I really can't make heads or tails of what you said.

[caseymoz]

55. Okay now I see, having read back further.

I joined the thread in the middle and hadn't read what you apparently were referring to.

If aaaa. . .'s article (#3) was the update, the problem is, it doesn't cite the rewards, it says there are no penalties. I disagree. There definitely are. Thought there's no legal penalties, in practice, the accusers are treated as pariahs, accused of being sluts, they are harassed. Many women have been raped and didn't report say that the biggest trauma is not being believed.

Now, those are social and psychological penalties, and they do not fall on every accuser equally. There may be a few women who are stupid, greedy or mentally ill, who will then make a false accusation because they think there will be some reward, but look at the proportion that are never reported! Almost all women would never come to the conclusion that making a false accusation would gain them anything: including revenge.

[intaglio]

19. Excuse me but these are fatuous MRA talking points

I think a false allegation is so very easy to make and often impossible to defend.

Proof? Actually false accusations are difficult to make because lies like this are believed by the police everywhere. Look at the graph, the vast bulk of rapes are never reported. It is also known those that are reported are often not investigated or the victim is advised of the terrible consequences of exposure and the chance of perjury charges.

As I now live in the UK I really cannot comment on US cases but one thing disturbs me in the UK : there is provision for very good compensation payments to be received and historic abuse cases seem to be numerous in the UK.

I live in the UK and can say your opinion is false. These "good" compensation payments are only available in a tiny minority of cases where there is evidence that the authorities failed. Criminal Injuries Compensation is a bit of a joke and very rarely issued unless proven long term physical or mental damage is evident.

While I have no idea of the truth of the matter but the recent late BBC DJ Jimmy Savile case there are allegedly over 500 people making claims. I simply cannot get my head around the fact that over 500 people say they were raped by this man and none of them (apart from 2 which were investigated in 2007 and police found no evidence) came forward in the 40 years these assaults are alleged to have occurred.

A complete falsehood. There were many reports of "Sir" Jimmy's vile abuse in fifty years - just not many were investigated and none were pursued. It is only since his death that investigations into a tiny minority of cases have brought the extent of his nauseating perversions to light. Remember that this piece of human crap deliberately chose victims unlikely to report him or who, if they did report him, were not likely to be believed. Additionally, for the majority of his career such abuse of the vulnerable was regarded almost as a perk of the job for celebrities. The fact that so few were brave enough to come forward also give a direct disproof of your earlier statement about compensation payments.

In Germany they dropped government cash compensation a few years ago and replaced that with ongoing treatment for life if necessary in rape cases and the figures for rape dropped quite a lot.

Citation needed, please. Also I would like to see the figures on rapes not reported.

None of this proves or disproves anything : anyone genuinely assaulted needs every assistance possible and the perpetrators to face the full fury of the law.

We also need fully trained police officers as well.

there needs to be ongoing education in schools and lots of discussion.

These are true but I see these platitudes offered by MRA apologists to excuse their opinions. What is left out is that it has to be assumed that there are vast numbers of unreported rapes to justify the expense of these measures

[Swagman]

24. pleae provide your proof of Savile's activities (apart from tabloid tales)

and proof of the 'perks' for celebrities.

[intaglio]

36. Try the known discarded police reports from the Met and Manchester and Liverpool

and the refusal of the CPS to prosecute back in 1980s.

Try looking at the reports of "groupies" from the 1960s through to the present day. These are not just 18 yo women they are normally thought to be in the age range 14 - 16.

Consider how long Garry Glitter got away with his perversions. Consider Bill Wyman and the sniggering reports of him his 13 year old girlfriend, (yes, he may have married her 5 years later but it does not stop his behaviour being abusive). Consider the activities of Roman Polanski before his prosecution.

Look at the article in Cosmo by Connie Hamzy - she glorified the abuse that happened to her.

You persist in promoting MRA talking points.

[Swagman]

41. Cosmo ? Wyman ? have to fo better than that.

[intaglio]

52. NO you have to stop being an MRA apologist

You have to stop ignoring the points that show you to be a manipulator of fact. (Check Connie Hamzy's 1990 book if you don't like her interview when she was 19 and closer to the abuse)

You have to look wider than "wisdom" you are accepting from sick little men who moan about oppression and women who lie.

You have to look into your own heart and find the corruption setting seed there, the failure of empathy and the gibberish you are spouting.

[Swagman]

57. what the fuck is the MRA and it is you spouting rubbish by weaving separate incidents

together..such as your weird claim Gary Glitter got away with something for years.

He didn't . He was busted twice soon after he committed crimes and paid the penalty. There are no other crimes.

British tabloid mentality evident in the media today : woman in court has beaten her tiny son to death with a hammer and then set him alight...few inches in the press.

80 year old BBC presenter allegedly kisses 13 year old on lips 30 years ago..all hell breaks loose..tabloids can't get enough of it..Esther Ranzten weeping her eyes out..wringing her hands.....not one..not one self appointed child expert hoovering up hundreds of millions of dollars for their 'charity' has one bloody word to say about hammer killed child.

Wonder what shrinks would say about the disturbingly high percentage of the British public who crave these child sex stories..it really is scary.

[intaglio]

65. Mens Rights Apologists - sorry, "Activists"

Mr Gadd had been a pedophile for years prior to the cases for which he was prosecuted. The same culture of indifference and inaction meant that his known prior history was ignored.

"The British Tabloid Mentality" - another MRA excuse. This "mentality" is recent, prior to the 1990s the tabloids had a barely disguised delight in marking the "conquests" of celebrities. The fact is these men were guilty of criminal offenses which were ignored or celebrated. The ones who have been outed or prosecuted are just the tip of the iceberg.

80 year old BBC presenter allegedly kisses 13 year old on lips 30 years ago..all hell breaks loose..tabloids can't get enough of it

You really do lack any empathy. Read what you have written, then ask a father if a man of 50 should be kissing his 14 year old daughter, sticking his tongue down her throat. Ask that father if that same late middle aged fading celeb should be groping her non-existent breasts. Ask that father if the institutional cover-up of this mans crimes should remain a secret because it happened so long ago. Ask the abused if they should be denied acceptance, healing and the knowledge that perverts like Savile will not find it so easy to indulge their sick games.

Esther Ranzten weeping her eyes out..wringing her hands.....not one..not one self appointed child expert hoovering up hundreds of millions of dollars for their 'charity' has one bloody word to say about hammer killed child.

I hope for your sake Ms Ranzten does not have this post reported to her for what you have done is committed gross libel. You seem completely unaware of the rules governing charities in the UK and the work of the Charities Commission in ensuring that the abuse of charity that you bemoan happens on a tiny scale. I hold no brief for Ms Rantzen, she was for years a masterful self publicist of a type I despise, but the Childline Charity has been a massive success and has inspired other, similar, efforts.

Wonder what shrinks would say about the disturbingly high percentage of the British public who crave these child sex stories..it really is scary.

I wonder what "shrinks" would say about a man who thinks past crimes should be kept secret; who cannot understand the nausea the victims of abuse feel; who cannot understand the glee that normal people feel when sick little perverts are outed and the victims are shown to be truthful and not liars. What would the "shrinks" feel about a man who saves his despite for a woman and not for the men who actually performed the crimes.

[intaglio]

79. Try this sensationalist report

Report reveals decades of abuse
The Yewtree Report (PDF)

[niyad]

92. you might try reading this thread, before you defend this perverted bastard

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022184876

don't tell me it's all tabloid reports, either.

I feel sorry for the females and children in your life.

[WCLinolVir]

75. Thank you. I do not understand people's wilful ignorance regarding rape.

Sick of it. Why do people who make assumptions about such a heinous crime, just spout off without thinking or maybe more importantly, fact checking.

[noiretextatique]

48. ok...what does any of this have to do with the prevalence of rape?

in india, for example? thanks in advance.

[dotymed]

22. Rape is a disgusting crime. It is not sexual but violent IMO.

When I was a teenager, I was having sex (consensually) with a young lady. Her mother found out and the girl said that I raped her. Luckily, another couple (of teenagers) were having sex in the same (big) room and told the truth. My life could have been ruined because this girl was afraid of her mother.

[dsc]

5. a serious a problem as rape is

there is no excuse to publish a mathematical malpractice as bad as that chart is. It is especially galling to see such a horrible graph in a section of the paper supposedly devoted to wonkiness which at its minimum would suggest mathematical precision.

[aaaaaa5a]

7. I was shocked when I saw it too. I'm glad I'm not alone. nt

[Sherman A1]

20. It does raise questions

I agree with your thoughts here.

[IDoMath]

10. Which part

Are you saying the numbers are off or just the problem of presenting a scalar value with no comparison?

The latter should be easy to fix.

[dsc]

21. both though the scalar value with no comparision is easy to fix

the numbers are frankly not well justified at all. In the text that came with the graph they admit that the numbers of rapes which are reported could be anything from 5 to 25 percent and the picked 10 because it was "dramatic but possible". That isn't how math works.

[ellisonz]

72. +1

As someone who has spent a substantial amount of time trying to pore through gun violence statistics, the methodology here is most definitely subject to scrutiny.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2013/01/08/the_enliven_project_s_false_rape_accusations_infographic_great_intentions.html

I think the possible accurate infographic would be just as compelling but without the jaw-dropping effect that this infographic is going for in its construction. I would also add to her critique that although the FBI statistics are useful for some purposes they are accurate rather than precise.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/06/fbi-crime-stats-fudged-the-wire-nypd

[Claybrains]

8. Very disturbing statics

[samsingh]

9. what would you do with the falsely accused?

[Rozlee]

26. The Innocence Project has exonerated several with DNA evidence.

Some have sued the state for incompetence or for not admitting evidence that would have led to their acquittal in their original trials. The sad thing is that many of them had already served decades in prison.

[samsingh]

40. exactly. what about their lives? I've heard people say that there are so few that it's not

significant.

well it is significant to them, their families, and other caring people

[Swagman]

45. this is what the more hysterical will say uniquely in sex assault cases : it is better for a few

Last edited Wed Jan 9, 2013, 08:33 AM - Edit history (1)

innocents to go to jail rather than the guilty go free. I've heard two assault campaigners say it.

[samsingh]

61. i don't agree with that approach.

there should be penalties for false accusations

[Orrex]

11. How can they present an accurate tally of rapes that aren't reported?

That is, might the actual number be rather higher?

[Swagman]

13. true..the figures may be far higher or smaller

[caseymoz]

14. It's from the Justice Department's

National Crime Victimization Survey and FBI reports. I think it might be pretty accurate.

[Orrex]

16. Thanks, but what I mean is...

If they're not reported, how can they be counted?

Not trying to be dense here--I just want to understand what the statistic represents. Does "reported" mean formally reported to police, as opposed to being "reported" to an ER, etc?


It seems to me that the number is low.

[Swagman]

25. I can't work that one out either

[caseymoz]

32. By following the links, you find this:

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=245

"NCVS is the Nation's primary source of information on criminal victimization. Each year, data are obtained from a nationally representative sample of about 40,000 households comprising nearly 75,000 persons on the frequency, characteristics and consequences of criminal victimization in the United States. Each household is interviewed twice during the year. The survey enables BJS to estimate the likelihood of victimization by rape, sexual assault, robbery, assault, theft, household burglary, and motor vehicle theft for the population as a whole as well as for segments of the population such as women, the elderly, members of various racial groups, city dwellers, or other groups. The NCVS provides the largest national forum for victims to describe the impact of crime and characteristics of violent offenders."

The NCVS doesn't rely on police reports, or reporting to any law enforcement agency. It surveys the general public directly about their experience of crime victimization. A sample of 40,000 households are surveyed repeatedly over a three year period, this includes about 70,000 individuals 12 or older.

Links to the questionnaires and the methodology are included in the one above.

The OP's link does have a disclaimer that the methodology is questioned, but I think the proportion is in the ballpark of what's given in the OP's graphic.

[Orrex]

33. Interesting--thanks.

Shame on me for not reading through. Of course, that just means that I'm in the company of 99.99% of internet users, so...

[Jackpine Radical]

31. The NCVS works by drawing a geographically stratified random sample of Americans

and interviewing them. Among the questions asked were whether the interviewee had been the victim of a crime, and whether they had reported it to the police. If the interviewee says they were raped and didn't report it, they end up being tallied as an unreported rape.

There are also similar NCVS statistics on other crimes such as burglaries, robberies, assaults, etc. You can find the data online.

[alp227]

39. Amanda Marcotte criticized this info graphic for that reason + more

http://slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2013/01/08/the_enliven_project_s_false_rape_accusations_infographic_great_intentions.html

[caseymoz]

18. False accusations are rare but . . .

. . . even though they're extremely rare for rapes overall, for reported rapes it looks like the rate is actually a little under two percent. (One presumes that if they're falsely accused, it means that they are reported.) Therefore it's still uncommon, but one can't say it's rare.

Still, nobody should ever presume a anyone reporting or giving an account of a rape is making it up. Not unless mental illness or greed is involved. Even with those motives, it's rare.

[galileoreloaded]

23. I get that feeding an imperative and an agenda requires

hyperbole, but when you pass on completely un-vetted marketing as fact to an impressionable public devoid of research or analytical skills there is an implied responsibility. A public, incidentally, who constantly strive to form opinions around why we live in a cultural wasteland, why nothing makes sense, and how we have lost our way. Very impressionable indeed, but fodder for the propaganda that an agenda needs to grow and thrive.

I fear critical thinking becomes the new Neanderthal, hiding in caves, preserving it's DNA, waiting for the next Ice Age and hoping their warmer climate cousins just go the way of the dodo so they can get back to the very serious business of building a civil society based in rational thought instead of rationalizations.

They exist, quietly and calmly waiting for the end of irrationality. Generally poolside.

This graph has been clearly debunked as selection bias, and no I won't provide the link. Shame on you who took it at face. It's why your children will someday work for mine.

[Odin2005]

28. Yet the "MRA" people obsess over the falsely accused.

[Swagman]

46. yes I suppose the falsely accused are obsessing as well.

[noiretextatique]

49. falsely accused, my ass

i am so sick of rape apologists pulling out this nonsense. show me the statistics that prove false accusation is any where near the problem that rape is.

[Swagman]

59. how dare you accuse people of being rape apologists because they discuss false accusations

which the graph and article makes points about.

How fucking dare you.

[noiretextatique]

66. how dare me? HOW DARE YOU!

answer the question: Is false accusation as big of a problem as rape? the answer is: NO.
which begs the question: why do rape apologists claim false accusation is such a big problem when women in india, for example, are being assaulted in public?

[Occulus]

69. The false accusation of any crime is objectively worse than the actual crime.

It's a very big problem for those actually falsely accused.

[Swagman]

74. don't even mention false accusations as apparently that means

you are a rape apologist according some tiny minds on here.

[yardwork]

82. How do you figure that?

I can understand that being falsely accused of rape would be bad, but how do you figure that it is actually worse than being raped?

If I had to choose between being raped and being falsely accused of rape, I would choose the false accusation.

[Occulus]

84. One of those things has lifetine legal and social consequences

regardless of the outcome. Plenty of people believe, quite wrongly, that if you're charged in the first place you "had to have done something".

That's one reason why. There are others, but you'll have to figure them out for yourself.

[yardwork]

85. Are you saying that being raped doesn't have lifetime consequences?

Many victims of rape are treated as criminals themselves. Their reputations are dragged through the mud. Plus they often have physical and emotional scars.

[Occulus]

86. No.

I'm saying the falsely accused, and especially the falsely convicted, face worse because there was no actual crime except the false one against them.

That is true for any crime. Not just rape.

[yardwork]

87. The falsely accused face worse than the victims of rape? That is crazy talk.

That is nonsense.

[Occulus]

88. Yes, in fact, they do.

Go ask anyone who has served time for exactly that. Or theft. Or murder.

It's worse for them because neither a rapist nor a victim even exists, yardwork. And that is true for the false accusation of every other crime.

That you are not capable of understanding that says a very great deal about you. You seem to have a rather gaping blind spot in that regard.

I'm putting you on ignore now. I have no desire to argue with people too blinded by emotion to be capable of basic reason.

[yardwork]

89. Slow down. Do we have a misunderstanding?

I was responding to your statement that "The false accusation of any crime is objectively worse than the actual crime." I thought that you meant that the false accusation of a crime was worse than what the actual victims of crime experience.

It sounds like I misunderstood. Are you saying that the victim of a false accusation suffers more than the false accuser? Of course that is true! I'm not disagreeing with that at all. If there is no crime, then the false accuser hasn't suffered anything. All the suffering is on the side of the person who is falsely accused. I agree that that is a terrible thing. People falsely accused of crimes, especially violent crimes, suffer all kinds of problems.

I hope that your buddies tell you take me off ignore long enough to read this response. I think that we had a misunderstanding, that's all.

[DevonRex]

90. I was going to agree on false convictions

Until you had to go and throw in that little part about neither crime nor victim even existing. I guess in your little world there is no such thing as the perpetrator being misidentified. It is a very unfortunate fact that eye witness identification is statistically awful. Even when a victim sees the person face to face, close up. In fact, that can distort the features.

As for the way you're talking to the women in this sub thread, feminists all, some of whom have been victims, I do not like it. And I happen to support an organization that works to overturn false convictions. Folks like you seem to think people like us are one dimensional. We are not. We do walk and chew gum.

In addition, how many young girls are raped and then smeared in Jr. High and High School as being "easy" and "sluts" and "whores"? Their reputations and self esteem are damaged for life. They suffer forever unless they get help from other rape survivors and counselors.

I speak as a survivor. Funny isn't it that I can still see that we have far too many people imprisoned wrongly? Funny isn't it that I actually participate in righting those wrongs? Since I can do that, why don't you think again about what you've said here and how you've said it?

[noiretextatique]

94. no

the rape apologists like to claim that false accusation of rape is bigger problem than actual rape.

[yardwork]

99. That's what I understood him to be saying. He's gone off in a huff now, putting me on ignore.

If this poster actually believes that false accusation of rape is a bigger problem than actual rape, then I'm glad that he has me on ignore. We're unlikely to agree on much else.

[noiretextatique]

100. likewise

if false accusation of rape is such a gigantic problem, perhaps i'd be more open-minded. however, i know it is not, so the apologists can kcuf fof

[closeupready]

95. "had to have done something" YES! Happened on a jury

I served on in a federal courtroom - stymied by a lack of progress in agreeing on a verdict, one of the other jurors tried this, "Look. Obviously, the police wouldn't have charged him with anything unless they had something on him, right?"

[yardwork]

97. I don't see anybody disagreeing with the fact that false accusations are a problem.

The question in some of our minds is whether or not this DUer is stating that false accusations are worse than actual rapes.

[closeupready]

98. Okay, I understand.

nt

[noiretextatique]

93. so...false accusation of rape is more of a problem than actual rape?

that was the question.

[Swagman]

73. you are a false accuser

I have said no such thing that supports men or women who rape and commit sex assaults...I have said no such thing that infers or says that incidents of rape are exagerated..I have commented on FALSE ACCUSATIONS .

You read into my posts things that are not there and imply that I am a rape apologist. That is a horrible and unfair accusation. And it is false.

edited for spelling

[EOTE]

63. While the "WRA" couldn't give a fuck about the falsely accused.

Pretty disgusting, huh?

[Rozlee]

30. My nieces' rapists' sentences were jokes.

They got six months each, but only served two and three months respectively. One of them had a second sex offense and wound up imprisoned a second time and getting murdered by another inmate. I hear that the other one is currently married and gets a lot of attention from the Sheriff's department for domestic abuse. And my niece is supposed to be one of the "lucky" ones that actually got her assailants prison sentences. Well, at least she wasn't "blessed" by getting pregnant by one of them.

[Odin2005]

50. My physically disabled friend's rapist got off scot free.

The defense attorney had the shamelessness to accuse a physically disabled young woman, who is certainly not the personality type to cheat on her BF, that she was a slut and a liar, and the idiot jury bought it!

[Rozlee]

53. I feel so sorry for her.

I know from experience how something like that traumatizes a family. Just with my niece's case, we were torn to our foundations and the two guys plea bargained; she never had to testify. I can only imagine the horror of your friend knowing her assailant got off scott free and probably to hurt someone else. Sex abusers and rapists aren't one time wonders. They don't stop stop with their first victim.

[xmas74]

68. Sad but true

the sentences were a joke but it's more justice than I ever received. Turns out a college athlete was beyond reproach at my school. They didn't even take a report or refer me for medical services- said that most girls would be flattered to be picked by him and that I was just worried about my reputation.

Early 90's and it still lives with me. I've never let go of the anger and the shame. To this day I feel like the only place I can talk about it is anonymously on a message board. I've never told anyone in my family and I've never spoken of it to anyone who wasn't around when it happened.

BTW- he's now a successful businessman with a family,a layman in his church and a pillar in his community.

[Rozlee]

77. How monstrous.

Sometimes I wish I weren't a skeptic and that I believed in karma or punishment in an afterlife. But, still, he got away with it once and sex offenders have a tendency to escalate over time. I feel sorry for his wife and his family. I hope he doesn't have any daughters because when scum like him have to curb their tendencies in polite society, they often turn on the people closest to them. Or a layman at his church? Despite the publicity on Catholic clergy child abuse, the most abuse occurs in Protestant churches and most of it comes from lay persons and volunteers. Horrifyingly enough, he's got a target rich environment. Let's hope someday his past catches up to him. Because I sincerely doubt he's changed.

[snooper2]

34. what's "faced trial", shouldn't there be jailed, charged, reported, unreported?

[billbailey19448jj]

43. A truly disturbing and sick graph

It seems that justice for rape victims in this country is simply woeful. I don't expect any real improvements anytime soon...

[musical_soul]

56. Sad :(

[TXDem72]

62. This concocted illustration is racist

Black men are disproportionately falsely accused of rape, either by a consenting partner, by an individual who never engaged in intercourse, or as a case of mistaken identity.

[Bucky]

64. And think of all those poor red Indians, the only ones to ever be convicted!

[Egalitarian Thug]

70. K&R. So sad. n/t

[Glassunion]

71. I have an issue with the "falsely accused" section of the graphic.

Last edited Thu Jan 10, 2013, 03:31 AM - Edit history (1)

If you look at the graphic, one could conceivably twist it to state that 20% of jailed rapists are falsely accused. This is not the case in reality. However, figures don't lie, but liars figure.

In actuality, the labels are misleading. The graphic could lead to the assumption that 1 in 5 men are rapists, when in fact it is about 6%, still a horrific number but more accurate. A better label would be rapes not rapists, especially considering that rapists on average have at least 5 to 6 victims.

But back to falsely accused... This graphic gives one the impression that a woman has directly pointed the finger at someone they know did not rape them. This is not the case. They have conflated "Falsely Reported" with "Falsely Accused". http://www.ndaa.org/pdf/the_voice_vol_3_no_1_2009.pdf

In actuality "Falsely Accused" would more accurately equate to only one leg of one of the figures in the graphic.

[malaise]

80. Freaking wow!!!

[sad-cafe]

91. This is horrible.

But not surprising.

[Liberal_in_LA]

96. kick