the era of presidential incumbent re-election continues

[TimberValley]

all incumbent presidents since Carter have been reelected, with the exception of George H.W. Bush in 1992.



1984 - Reagan was reelected
1992 - Bush Sr. wasn't
1996 - Clinton was reelected
2004 - Bush Jr. was reelected
2012 - Obama was reelected



Given the dismal shape that America is in these days - bad economy, high debt, foreign wars, etc. this is quite remarkable. One would expect that after 2000, we would perhaps have had incumbent presidents defeated one after another, in 2004, 2008, and 2012 But that hasn't been the case.


Is this just a case of incumbent advantage? One would expect incumbent presidents to have a weaker chance in reelection campaigns than before. Perhaps the American public has more patience than we give it credit for?


it's worth noting that Obama did win reelection by a smaller margin than in 2008, and Bush won his reelection in 2004 by a very narrow margin. so, perhaps the incumbent presidents aren't so much winning reelection in emphatic fashion as they are hanging on to their presidencies.

[winterpark]

1. Correction. Bush didn't win his first election. The scotus gave it to him. Don't think he really

actually won Ohio in 04 either. My personal opinion is he didn't win either election

[TimberValley]

3. doesn't really matter how you define it or what your opinion of it was

Bush was president after the 2000 election, and president after the 2004 election.

for the statistical and historical purpose of this thread, that's all that matters.

[JoePhilly]

2. Correction: Bush won by 3.4% in 2004, Obama won by 3.9% in 2012.

2012: Obama wins 332 EC votes to 206
20004: Bush wins 286 EC votes to 251

Bottom line .... 2012 wasn't even close

[TimberValley]

5. My point was that Obama won 2012 by a narrower margin than he did in 2008.

I was comparing Obama 2012 against Obama 2008, not against Bush-2004.

[JoePhilly]

6. I think the real trend is that since Bush #1, the GOP has only won 1 Presidential election,

that was in 2004, and the margin of victory was basically a single state.

And if Bush had not been able to scare the sheep using non-existent WMDs, they don't even win that one.

[Dawson Leery]

7. Bush 2004 MOV was 2.41%

[Dawson Leery]

4. Bush never had any right to the Presidency.

His only "win" in 2004 was due to the advantage of an unearned incumbency.
Bush's margin was 2.41%. That was the smallest margin of victory for any incumbent.