New Pollster finds close race between Markey and Gomez.

[Mass]

Emerson College Polling Society finds a close race between Markey and Gomez, with Markey up by 6.

http://emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/ECPS_PR_5.2.pdf

Before people start panicking, a few things.

First, because I had never heard of them and I pretty much know all major MA polling firm, I looked at whom they are. They are brand new. So, we have no idea whether they are any good or not.

Second, the press release does not give any indication of where those people interviewed live. Given the differences between the different parts of MA, le make up of the sample matter. Also, the poll deals with registered voters. During a special election where people do not vote in the first place? Really?

So, while I hope the Markey campaign is serious (and it seems they are), I will wait to hear about well-known posters (Massinc, PPP, Suffolk) before I worry.

[graham4anything]

1. If Markey wins I will congratulate him, if Markey loses, I will say I told you so.

[Mass]

4. If he loses, I will blame Democrats who spent more time whining than campaigning.

[graham4anything]

6. It reminds me of the Mondale campaign for the Wellstone seat.Markey should be ahead by 25

He is going to have to be wide awake and not take it for granted, one of those polls showed alot of the state don't even know who he is even after decades.

[Mass]

7. He may be 25 points ahead. Given this pollster has no track record, this may be like Lynch poll last

week. Or not.

Anyway, we' ll know soon, as PPP is polling tomorrow. And they have a track record, contrarily to Emerson.

[graham4anything]

8. Yup. I am always wary of pollsters from out of nowhere wanting to strike first

as we all know now, pollsters are attempting to drive the polls these days and not report it.

[bluestate10]

15. I wouldn't put it past republicans to lie, that party is good at lying these days. nt

[bluestate10]

14. I don't expect Markey to run the type of incompetent campaign that Martha Coakley ran.

But having said that, Markey had better take Gomez seriously. Markey got north of 250,000 vote in the primary, Lynch got north of 175,000 votes. The republican vote was north of 150,000. Lynch voters tend to be from the more conservative strain of Massachusetts democrat, many of those people could vote for Gomez if Lynch doesn't come out strong for Markey. Expect turncoats like Ray Flynn to support Gomez outright or give mealy mouthed platitude to bipartisanship, whatever that means.

[still_one]

2. What concerns me is Americans love affair with war, and they will be skewed not on

qualifications but "navy seal"

[Mass]

5. We' ll see. We need Democrats to show up and vote. If they do, we' ll win.

[still_one]

9. I agree, but when Scott brown won in Mass that really lost

my confidence

[Mass]

10. Scott Brown won because the entire Democratic party was absent at the bar.

Not only the candidate, but the state party (who misspelled MA in an ad), the DSCC, the DNC, ... Nobody thought we could lose.

Hopefully, we learned our lesson.

[bluestate10]

16. Martha Coakley ran an enormously incompetent campaign. She didn't get out and campaign,

she didn't bring in competent advisers early, she let Scott Brown's phone banks absolutely dominate calls to people's homes. A case in point, I was at home on a snowy day and got a call at Noon for a Coakley rally 20 miles away that was to take place at 2pm. That phone call was the first and only notice that I got about the rally. Markey should run the type of campaign the Deval Patrick ran during the 2010 election, Patrick blanketed the state and spoke to any group that invited him. Patrick has a clear message that he constantly drove home, and Patrick had competent field people that got the democratic base fired up.

[elleng]

3. Interesting. Emerson is in the middle of Boston,

was a pretty liberal college (my mother attended,) and Norman Lear is an alum.

[smirkymonkey]

11. Women will come out in force for Markey. I predict a Markey win.

I don't trust Gomez. I don't trust any Republicans. I don't think most MA voters are that easily fooled.

[JI7]

12. RAchel Maddow has said Gomez sounds really bad when speaking

so i'm guessing any closeness in the race would go away after people see a debate.

[bluestate10]

17. Markey can't take Gomez for granted. Gomez is a clumsy speaker, but if Markey comes

off as dismissive, that will help Gomez. Markey must re-state what Gomez says with empathy, the proceed to rip Gomez's guts of with sharp analysis that punch holes in Gomez's arguments.

[JI7]

19. i agree, hopefully the Dems learned after Scott Brown won what

should have been an easy win if only the Dem had campaigned .

[Dawson Leery]

20. Is Markey running ads and campaigning where asked to?

Coakley did not do so. It was all she had to do to win.

[0rganism]

13. they might be weighting results for expected off-year turnout

which invariably favors Republicans because Democrats apparently haven't figured out that elections happen every 2 years.

[bluestate10]

18. The election is a special election, it isn't an off year election. I was one of the people that

didn't want this election. But now that we have it, I am in the fight to help the democrat win.

[graywarrior]

21. I read in a local MA paper that Latinos here are torn

http://itemlive.com/articles/2013/05/02/news/news82.txt

[Warren Stupidity]

22. Um about this poll.

Emerson College Polling Society is a student organization at Emerson College dedicated to formulating, administering, and analyzing public opinion polls. The results and analysis of this release are the sole views of Emerson College Polling Society and do not reflect the views of Emerson College as a whole.

I'd hold off on the mass (pun intended) suicide until a few somewhat more professional polls have chimed in.