General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLondon: a case study in the effectiveness of gun control.
London, England has a homicide rate of 1.1/100K. Recently, I was engaged in a discussion with some "pro-gun progressives" in which it came to light that there are no cities -- zero -- in the US that have a homicide rate that low. That's right: every single city in the US with a population of at least 250K has a higher homicide rate than London, one of the largest and most diverse cities in the world. And, in almost all cases, the homicide rate is much higher.
All cities in the US. Not just the usual suspects, like New Orleans, which has a homicide rate of over 50X (fifty times!) higher than London. But also places you don't really associate with violence. For example, Portland OR, and Virginia Beach, VA both have over 3X as much homicide as London.
Virginia Beach! The homicide rate here
is three times higher than here!
Austin, Anchorage, Corpus Christi, Mesa AZ, all have between 3X and 4X as much homicide as London. Colorado Springs and Albuquerque, over 5X. Mobile AL and Tulsa OK, over 10X. And the list goes on.
Why would this be? Well, the NRA likes to blame anything except for guns, but the problem is, London has all of the other causes that the NRA likes to point to, and they have them in spades.
For example, NRAers like to claim that homicide is basically due to inner city gangs (which is, of course, false -- only about 12% of homicides in the US are gang related). But London has tons of gangs. NRAers like to point to ethnic tensions, or some of them put it, "black people". London has enormous ethnic tensions. Not only do they have black people, but they have tensions involving Muslims, and Eastern Europeans, Asians, etc. They have Bangladeshi gangs! Really!
London has poverty. London has crime. London has all of the social ills that go along with large, diverse, densely populated cities. And yet their homicide rate is tiny, compared to any city in the US.
Why? Because the gun laws in the UK are very tight. You might get robbed, but the person robbing you won't have a gun. People get into fights, but they don't shoot each other. And crimes involving guns are many times more likely to result in a homicide than crimes without guns.
Want to save lives in America, and get the homicide rate down in line with international standards? Gun control.
badtoworse
(5,957 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)When were the gun bans enacted?
What was the motivation for gun bans?
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Since then, the homicide rate in London dropped from 2.5 to 1.1. But even before that, gun laws were much tighter in the UK than in the US.
So, do you care to speculate as to why there is so much more homicide in Virginia Beach than in London?
zerosumgame0005
(207 posts)If you have ever used the Underground you wonder how they endure not killing everyone else in sight
truebluegreen
(9,033 posts)although I think they became even more so lately. If you want to track changes after gun ban laws are enacted check out Australia.
Enacted in--I think--1996, the results are 0 mass murders (4 or more people shot; in the previous 18 years there were 13); gun homicides way down, teen suicides by gun way down...
DanTex
(20,709 posts)For example, a criminologist at UChicago documented the reduction in gun violence in Hawaii after gun laws were tightened there.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1262643
mainer
(12,022 posts)Without their guns, Londoners are all suffering because those jack-booted government thugs insist on giving them health care.
premium
(3,731 posts)you can write all the threads you want about how other countries gun violence is less than that of the U.S. because of their firearms laws, but the bottom line is that this country will never pass those kind of laws, our culture of firearms is too deep rooted.
It does make for good, spirited debate though.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)In our nation's history, we have overcome many other deep-rooted problems.
premium
(3,731 posts)but in this case, the opposition to enact gun laws like other countries, like Britain, Australia, etc, is deep seated and just won't fly in this country.
Of course, this is just my opinion, but I think I'm pretty close to the truth.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)I mean, look, we couldn't even get universal background checks passed. There's no way we're getting Australia or UK style laws anytime in the near future.
Sometimes things take a while.
premium
(3,731 posts)and, I'd like to see a mag limit modeled after CO law, more funding to states for better reporting to NICS of excluded persons, better funding of health care. Just to name a few.
Democracyinkind
(4,015 posts)But the same was true for slavery just 150 years ago. And yet, it's gone.
premium
(3,731 posts)but slavery wasn't deep seated throughout the country, the firearm culture is, especially in the rural and suburb parts of the country.
Democracyinkind
(4,015 posts)mainer
(12,022 posts)but those who do have guns have more of them.
premium
(3,731 posts)it MAY be that fewer households are refusing to acknowledge that they have firearms in the home.
I know I wouldn't tell anyone over the phone or an online poll that I own firearms and that may be why the stats say that fewer households are reporting they posses firearms.
Just my opinion of course.
ChoppinBroccoli
(3,784 posts)Although it's highly unlikely given the state of our politics in this country, a big change like this one COULD be achieved if you could find a large group of people courageous enough to 1) enact the laws even though it will mean the loss of their Congressional seat (a la that Australian politician featured in the Daily Show segment), and/or 2) eschew the big money hurled at representatives by moneyed, influential interest groups.
If you could find people who stood on principle, and valued improving the country over retention of their seat, and who were all willing to commit political suicide in the interest of the country, you could do it. But good luck finding anyone like that in this country. It's all about getting re-elected. Just imagine if we had a group of representatives who actually voted their consciences, beholden to no one, and just said, "Screw getting re-elected."
I've often wondered why more liberal Democrats don't try to pull off a "Black Ops" kind of thing, whereby they register as Republicans, run on hardcore conservative platforms, and then as soon as they win, completely reverse course and spend their 2/4/6 years in office governing as a liberal. I mean, it's not like politicians don't ALREADY lie to get elected. Why not try to pull off something like this? We might actually get some meaningful, difference-making legislation pushed through.
premium
(3,731 posts)that's one way to do it, but let me opine what would probably happen, there would be a massive turnover in the Congress and the incoming Congress would just repeal those laws, or, the SCOTUS would rule it unconstitutional and then we'd be back to square one, only now we would have a repuke admin. in power and then say goodby to ACA, women's rights, gay rights, etc.
Didn't mean to rain on your ideas. Gotta go for now, granddaughter just arrived and she wants the puter.
Be back soon.
BainsBane
(53,032 posts)More than corporate profits and their personal stockpiles of weapons. Without that, we will continue to be the most violent country in the First World.
premium
(3,731 posts)that fact still remains that the firearms culture is deeply rooted in this country and there is no way that we will ever get U.K. or Australia style laws.
There are things that are achievable without trashing the 2A, like getting the UBC passed, mag. limit modeled on CO. law, stiffer enforcement of straw purchases, better funding to states to submit info to NICS of prohibited persons, better health care, etc..
I believe that we'd have better luck getting these laws passed than trying to become like other countries firearms laws.
BainsBane
(53,032 posts)I see no point in going for a firearms ban since even modest proposals prove so difficult to pass.
HipChick
(25,485 posts)on the black market...Eastern Europeans are bring them in..
DanTex
(20,709 posts)If we could substitute stabbings for shootings in the US, thousands of lives would be saved.
Also I would take issue with claim that it is "fairly easy" to get a gun. It is possible, yes, but much more difficult than in the US.
premium
(3,731 posts)Here in Nevada, because I can walk into our local firearms store, fill out form 4473, get my BGC, plunk down the money, and 10 minutes later, walk out with a firearm, or, I can peruse the local paper, find a gun for sale, plunk down my money and walk away with a gun, no BGC.
rrneck
(17,671 posts)Yeah, I can just imagine the satisfaction someone will have knowing they contributed to the low murder rate by not owning a gun while some mugger sits on his chest pounding him with both fists. Bam bam - well - bam bam - at least - bam - I helped keep - bam bam - the firearm - bam - murder rate low - bam bam bam - in the UK by not owning - bam - a gun. Of course they have decent health care over there, so his stay in the hospital won't bankrupt him.
sarisataka
(18,649 posts)http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/7922755/England-has-worse-crime-rate-than-the-US-says-Civitas-study.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196941/The-violent-country-Europe-Britain-worse-South-Africa-U-S.html
The good news is although mush like the US crime is generally going down
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jul/14/crime-statistics-england-wales
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Clear evidence of the lethality of guns. If we had similar gun laws, we would likely have even lower homicide rates than the UK.
One caveat is that comparisons of "violent crime" suffer from the fact that it is not as clearly defined as homicide (e.g. when does an assault become "aggravated" . But still, it is clear that the reason that the UK has a lower homicide is not that they are a less violent people, or that they have less gangs, or any of the other reasons that people try to give as an excuse for the astronomical homicide rates in the US.
sarisataka
(18,649 posts)Agreement in that the lowest achievable homicide rate is a good thing and there are things we can do to lower it more that have not yet been done in the US. It is worthwhile examining what has worked in other countries which may be applied to the US.
We probably overlap and disagree on what those things are. Also we may disagree that an increase in violent crime is acceptable exchange for a lower homicide rate. In certain crimes it is a no brainer but would a tripling of incidences of rape justify a 75% decrease in homicide; IMO no. Not to say it would happen but we must consider unintended consequences.
Another issue with the UK (or any other country) v. US is differences in categorizing crime and how it is reported. Some use arrests to determine crime even if the accused is eventually acquitted; other use convictions as their criteria for reporting crime. So we must always keep in mind we not doing 1:1 comparisons. The US has a higher homicide rate but... The UK has a higher violent crime rate but... Japan has a higher suicide rate but... and so on.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Just that the effects of gun control in terms of reducing homicide is clear. Yes, they have higher violent crime rates overall, but that has nothing to do with gun policy.
What you present is a false choice. Tightening gun laws won't increase the incidence of rape or robbery or assault. All it would do is reduce homicide.
SlipperySlope
(2,751 posts)Based on your data it looks like London is a more violent place than any US city over 250k people - even higher than Detroit.
And, like it or not, an argument can be made that banning handguns led to the increase in violent crime. Handguns were banned there in 1997 and in the 12 years that followed violent crime increased by 77%.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)According to the Wiki data, their rate of assault would rank them #4 in the US, and their rate of robbery would rank them #15.
What that shows it that the Americans are not uniquely violent people, like the NRA apologists like to claim. The overall rates of violent crime in London are pretty high. But their homicide rate is very low, because there are very few guns.
SlipperySlope
(2,751 posts)According to the web page you cite, Greater London has a "Violence against the person" rate of 23.2 per 1,000 people. Normalizing that to a rate per 100,000 people gives a rate of 2320.
According to the web page you cite, Detroit has a violent crime rate of 2,137.4 per 100,000 people.
Therefore, it appears that Greater London has an 8% higher violent crime rate than Detroit.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)as "violent crime" as measured in the US. That's one problem with international comparisons of the loosely defined category "violent crime": it depends on how they are counted.
Still, like I said before, the fact that there is a high level of violent crime overall, and a very low level of homicide, only makes the case for gun control stronger.
sibelian
(7,804 posts)That's not really the subject under discussion, is it?
"an argument can be made that banning handguns led to the increase in violent crime"
So you're saying it's violent crime or lots of deaths? Violent crime, please.
SlipperySlope
(2,751 posts)> That's not really the subject under discussion, is it?
Consequences, be they intended or unintended, are a valid part of any discussion.
When someone wants to use data to support a point, it is valid to discuss the nature and meaning of that data.
I can't argue against a tautology. In a world without handguns there can be no handgun deaths. That does not mean that removing firearms from the United States would meaningfully reduce our homicide rate or violent crime rate. It could possibly increase our homicide rate.
sibelian
(7,804 posts)There's a thing here that you're not discussing. I wonder why not?
DanTex
(20,709 posts)The mechanism by which guns increase homicide rates is clear: guns are more deadly than other weapons. It also is supported by the data, which shows that homicide rates are higher where there are more guns.
The data does not back the hypothesis that guns reduce crime rates. The suggestion that London's high crime rates are the result of not having enough guns is absurd. If you look at the rest of the developed world -- Canada, UK, Europe, etc. -- you find that overall violent crime rates in the US are within the normal range, but our homicide rates are far higher. This is largely due to the lethality of guns.
In fact, as I've pointed out before, the fact that they have high rates of violent crime and still have very low homicide rates actually strengthens the argument for gun control.
valerief
(53,235 posts)One_Life_To_Give
(6,036 posts)England didn't regulate Pistols till 1903 and already had a rate under 5 per 100,000 since 1800. And closer to 1 by 1900. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/arts/history/postgraduate/ma_studies/mamodules/hi971/topics/interpersonal/long-term-historical-trends-of-violent-crime.pdf
While the US rate was over 6 in 1900. Philadelphia at 4.6 in 1895 and the West having horrendous rates in the late 19th century.
Murder is rare in the UK because it has been that way for several centuries. Berlin has an even lower rate than London but comparatively lax gun laws. Perhaps it is something in European culture?
DanTex
(20,709 posts)I think both the ease of getting a gun, and also just the sheer number of guns in private hands both contribute. Of course, these two are linked.
I don't think that data from 1850 is too useful in analyzing the effects of guns on modern societies. Maybe a century ago the US had a uniquely violent culture, but this is not true anymore. Our overall rates of violent crime are not higher than Western Europe, but our homicide rate is much higher.
etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)They are thoughtful, insightful and very enlightening.