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DanTex

(20,709 posts)
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:23 AM May 2013

London: a case study in the effectiveness of gun control.

London, England has a homicide rate of 1.1/100K. Recently, I was engaged in a discussion with some "pro-gun progressives" in which it came to light that there are no cities -- zero -- in the US that have a homicide rate that low. That's right: every single city in the US with a population of at least 250K has a higher homicide rate than London, one of the largest and most diverse cities in the world. And, in almost all cases, the homicide rate is much higher.


All cities in the US. Not just the usual suspects, like New Orleans, which has a homicide rate of over 50X (fifty times!) higher than London. But also places you don't really associate with violence. For example, Portland OR, and Virginia Beach, VA both have over 3X as much homicide as London.

Virginia Beach! The homicide rate here

is three times higher than here!


Austin, Anchorage, Corpus Christi, Mesa AZ, all have between 3X and 4X as much homicide as London. Colorado Springs and Albuquerque, over 5X. Mobile AL and Tulsa OK, over 10X. And the list goes on.

Why would this be? Well, the NRA likes to blame anything except for guns, but the problem is, London has all of the other causes that the NRA likes to point to, and they have them in spades.

For example, NRAers like to claim that homicide is basically due to inner city gangs (which is, of course, false -- only about 12% of homicides in the US are gang related). But London has tons of gangs. NRAers like to point to ethnic tensions, or some of them put it, "black people". London has enormous ethnic tensions. Not only do they have black people, but they have tensions involving Muslims, and Eastern Europeans, Asians, etc. They have Bangladeshi gangs! Really!

London has poverty. London has crime. London has all of the social ills that go along with large, diverse, densely populated cities. And yet their homicide rate is tiny, compared to any city in the US.

Why? Because the gun laws in the UK are very tight. You might get robbed, but the person robbing you won't have a gun. People get into fights, but they don't shoot each other. And crimes involving guns are many times more likely to result in a homicide than crimes without guns.

Want to save lives in America, and get the homicide rate down in line with international standards? Gun control.

42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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London: a case study in the effectiveness of gun control. (Original Post) DanTex May 2013 OP
So repeal the 2nd Amendment already. badtoworse May 2013 #1
What were the homicide rates before gun bans? Eleanors38 May 2013 #2
The most recent major tightening of gun laws in the UK was in 1997. DanTex May 2013 #4
which is a real testement to Londoners! zerosumgame0005 May 2013 #17
Britain has always been pretty tightly regulated visavis guns,. truebluegreen May 2013 #5
There are also a few other before/after case studies to look at. DanTex May 2013 #6
But how will Londoners fight back when the Queen takes away their rights? mainer May 2013 #3
Respectfully, premium May 2013 #7
The only way to get change is to challenge the status quo. DanTex May 2013 #8
That may be, premium May 2013 #9
I agree with you there. DanTex May 2013 #10
Hopefully we'll get there with UBC soon, premium May 2013 #12
It is pretty close to the truth. Democracyinkind May 2013 #11
True, premium May 2013 #14
Granted, agree. nt. Democracyinkind May 2013 #21
At least the US trend is fewer families have guns mainer May 2013 #18
Not quite sure if that's true, premium May 2013 #19
There Is A Way To Do It ChoppinBroccoli May 2013 #20
I agree, premium May 2013 #22
People need to decide human life has value BainsBane May 2013 #30
While I generally agree with you, premium May 2013 #33
I agree BainsBane May 2013 #35
They have a high amount of stabbings though..and you can always get a gun fairly easy HipChick May 2013 #13
Stabbings are much less lethal than shootings. Part of why the homicide rate is so low. DanTex May 2013 #15
True, very true. premium May 2013 #16
Say, that's pretty good! rrneck May 2013 #23
Is it just guns or does violence matter? sarisataka May 2013 #24
Exactly. Despite higher general levels of violent crime, the UK has far less murder. DanTex May 2013 #25
we may agree and disagree at the same time sarisataka May 2013 #26
I'm not arguing that the UK is overall a better place to live. DanTex May 2013 #27
London has a higher violent crime rate than *any* US city on your list. SlipperySlope May 2013 #28
That's not accurate. DanTex May 2013 #29
This is the Wiki data I am citing... SlipperySlope May 2013 #31
It's not clear that "violence against the person" as measured in the UK is at all the same thing DanTex May 2013 #34
ooookay. sibelian May 2013 #36
Consequences are a valid topic of discussion. SlipperySlope May 2013 #37
That's all very interesting, but it's not really the subject under discussion, is it? sibelian May 2013 #38
There is no mechanism whereby reducing guns would increase homicide rates. DanTex May 2013 #39
U.S. owners don't want to save lives. They want reduce SS expenditures. Dead is better for them. nt valerief May 2013 #32
Rising now, was lowest around early-mid 20th century One_Life_To_Give May 2013 #40
Yes, the gun culture in the US probably has something to do with it. DanTex May 2013 #41
Thank you so much for your posts on ths subject etherealtruth May 2013 #42
 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
2. What were the homicide rates before gun bans?
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:32 AM
May 2013

When were the gun bans enacted?

What was the motivation for gun bans?

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
4. The most recent major tightening of gun laws in the UK was in 1997.
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:38 AM
May 2013

Since then, the homicide rate in London dropped from 2.5 to 1.1. But even before that, gun laws were much tighter in the UK than in the US.

So, do you care to speculate as to why there is so much more homicide in Virginia Beach than in London?

 

zerosumgame0005

(207 posts)
17. which is a real testement to Londoners!
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:20 AM
May 2013

If you have ever used the Underground you wonder how they endure not killing everyone else in sight

 

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)
5. Britain has always been pretty tightly regulated visavis guns,.
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:38 AM
May 2013

although I think they became even more so lately. If you want to track changes after gun ban laws are enacted check out Australia.

Enacted in--I think--1996, the results are 0 mass murders (4 or more people shot; in the previous 18 years there were 13); gun homicides way down, teen suicides by gun way down...

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
6. There are also a few other before/after case studies to look at.
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:41 AM
May 2013

For example, a criminologist at UChicago documented the reduction in gun violence in Hawaii after gun laws were tightened there.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1262643

mainer

(12,022 posts)
3. But how will Londoners fight back when the Queen takes away their rights?
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:36 AM
May 2013

Without their guns, Londoners are all suffering because those jack-booted government thugs insist on giving them health care.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
7. Respectfully,
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:49 AM
May 2013

you can write all the threads you want about how other countries gun violence is less than that of the U.S. because of their firearms laws, but the bottom line is that this country will never pass those kind of laws, our culture of firearms is too deep rooted.

It does make for good, spirited debate though.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
8. The only way to get change is to challenge the status quo.
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:54 AM
May 2013

In our nation's history, we have overcome many other deep-rooted problems.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
9. That may be,
Tue May 14, 2013, 09:57 AM
May 2013

but in this case, the opposition to enact gun laws like other countries, like Britain, Australia, etc, is deep seated and just won't fly in this country.
Of course, this is just my opinion, but I think I'm pretty close to the truth.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
10. I agree with you there.
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:05 AM
May 2013

I mean, look, we couldn't even get universal background checks passed. There's no way we're getting Australia or UK style laws anytime in the near future.

Sometimes things take a while.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
12. Hopefully we'll get there with UBC soon,
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:08 AM
May 2013

and, I'd like to see a mag limit modeled after CO law, more funding to states for better reporting to NICS of excluded persons, better funding of health care. Just to name a few.

Democracyinkind

(4,015 posts)
11. It is pretty close to the truth.
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:05 AM
May 2013

But the same was true for slavery just 150 years ago. And yet, it's gone.
 

premium

(3,731 posts)
14. True,
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:11 AM
May 2013

but slavery wasn't deep seated throughout the country, the firearm culture is, especially in the rural and suburb parts of the country.

mainer

(12,022 posts)
18. At least the US trend is fewer families have guns
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:26 AM
May 2013

but those who do have guns have more of them.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
19. Not quite sure if that's true,
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:34 AM
May 2013

it MAY be that fewer households are refusing to acknowledge that they have firearms in the home.
I know I wouldn't tell anyone over the phone or an online poll that I own firearms and that may be why the stats say that fewer households are reporting they posses firearms.
Just my opinion of course.

ChoppinBroccoli

(3,784 posts)
20. There Is A Way To Do It
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:39 AM
May 2013

Although it's highly unlikely given the state of our politics in this country, a big change like this one COULD be achieved if you could find a large group of people courageous enough to 1) enact the laws even though it will mean the loss of their Congressional seat (a la that Australian politician featured in the Daily Show segment), and/or 2) eschew the big money hurled at representatives by moneyed, influential interest groups.

If you could find people who stood on principle, and valued improving the country over retention of their seat, and who were all willing to commit political suicide in the interest of the country, you could do it. But good luck finding anyone like that in this country. It's all about getting re-elected. Just imagine if we had a group of representatives who actually voted their consciences, beholden to no one, and just said, "Screw getting re-elected."

I've often wondered why more liberal Democrats don't try to pull off a "Black Ops" kind of thing, whereby they register as Republicans, run on hardcore conservative platforms, and then as soon as they win, completely reverse course and spend their 2/4/6 years in office governing as a liberal. I mean, it's not like politicians don't ALREADY lie to get elected. Why not try to pull off something like this? We might actually get some meaningful, difference-making legislation pushed through.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
22. I agree,
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:47 AM
May 2013

that's one way to do it, but let me opine what would probably happen, there would be a massive turnover in the Congress and the incoming Congress would just repeal those laws, or, the SCOTUS would rule it unconstitutional and then we'd be back to square one, only now we would have a repuke admin. in power and then say goodby to ACA, women's rights, gay rights, etc.

Didn't mean to rain on your ideas. Gotta go for now, granddaughter just arrived and she wants the puter.
Be back soon.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
30. People need to decide human life has value
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:28 PM
May 2013

More than corporate profits and their personal stockpiles of weapons. Without that, we will continue to be the most violent country in the First World.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
33. While I generally agree with you,
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:38 PM
May 2013

that fact still remains that the firearms culture is deeply rooted in this country and there is no way that we will ever get U.K. or Australia style laws.
There are things that are achievable without trashing the 2A, like getting the UBC passed, mag. limit modeled on CO. law, stiffer enforcement of straw purchases, better funding to states to submit info to NICS of prohibited persons, better health care, etc..

I believe that we'd have better luck getting these laws passed than trying to become like other countries firearms laws.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
35. I agree
Tue May 14, 2013, 03:24 PM
May 2013

I see no point in going for a firearms ban since even modest proposals prove so difficult to pass.

HipChick

(25,485 posts)
13. They have a high amount of stabbings though..and you can always get a gun fairly easy
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:08 AM
May 2013

on the black market...Eastern Europeans are bring them in..

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
15. Stabbings are much less lethal than shootings. Part of why the homicide rate is so low.
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:11 AM
May 2013

If we could substitute stabbings for shootings in the US, thousands of lives would be saved.

Also I would take issue with claim that it is "fairly easy" to get a gun. It is possible, yes, but much more difficult than in the US.

 

premium

(3,731 posts)
16. True, very true.
Tue May 14, 2013, 10:17 AM
May 2013

Here in Nevada, because I can walk into our local firearms store, fill out form 4473, get my BGC, plunk down the money, and 10 minutes later, walk out with a firearm, or, I can peruse the local paper, find a gun for sale, plunk down my money and walk away with a gun, no BGC.

rrneck

(17,671 posts)
23. Say, that's pretty good!
Tue May 14, 2013, 11:02 AM
May 2013

Yeah, I can just imagine the satisfaction someone will have knowing they contributed to the low murder rate by not owning a gun while some mugger sits on his chest pounding him with both fists. Bam bam - well - bam bam - at least - bam - I helped keep - bam bam - the firearm - bam - murder rate low - bam bam bam - in the UK by not owning - bam - a gun. Of course they have decent health care over there, so his stay in the hospital won't bankrupt him.

sarisataka

(18,649 posts)
24. Is it just guns or does violence matter?
Tue May 14, 2013, 11:11 AM
May 2013
England has worse crime rate than the US, says Civitas study

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/7922755/England-has-worse-crime-rate-than-the-US-says-Civitas-study.html
The most violent country in Europe: Britain is also worse than South Africa and U.S.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196941/The-violent-country-Europe-Britain-worse-South-Africa-U-S.html
The good news is although mush like the US crime is generally going down
Crime statistics for England & Wales: what's happening to each offence?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jul/14/crime-statistics-england-wales

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
25. Exactly. Despite higher general levels of violent crime, the UK has far less murder.
Tue May 14, 2013, 12:39 PM
May 2013

Clear evidence of the lethality of guns. If we had similar gun laws, we would likely have even lower homicide rates than the UK.

One caveat is that comparisons of "violent crime" suffer from the fact that it is not as clearly defined as homicide (e.g. when does an assault become "aggravated&quot . But still, it is clear that the reason that the UK has a lower homicide is not that they are a less violent people, or that they have less gangs, or any of the other reasons that people try to give as an excuse for the astronomical homicide rates in the US.

sarisataka

(18,649 posts)
26. we may agree and disagree at the same time
Tue May 14, 2013, 12:50 PM
May 2013

Agreement in that the lowest achievable homicide rate is a good thing and there are things we can do to lower it more that have not yet been done in the US. It is worthwhile examining what has worked in other countries which may be applied to the US.

We probably overlap and disagree on what those things are. Also we may disagree that an increase in violent crime is acceptable exchange for a lower homicide rate. In certain crimes it is a no brainer but would a tripling of incidences of rape justify a 75% decrease in homicide; IMO no. Not to say it would happen but we must consider unintended consequences.

Another issue with the UK (or any other country) v. US is differences in categorizing crime and how it is reported. Some use arrests to determine crime even if the accused is eventually acquitted; other use convictions as their criteria for reporting crime. So we must always keep in mind we not doing 1:1 comparisons. The US has a higher homicide rate but... The UK has a higher violent crime rate but... Japan has a higher suicide rate but... and so on.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
27. I'm not arguing that the UK is overall a better place to live.
Tue May 14, 2013, 12:56 PM
May 2013

Just that the effects of gun control in terms of reducing homicide is clear. Yes, they have higher violent crime rates overall, but that has nothing to do with gun policy.

What you present is a false choice. Tightening gun laws won't increase the incidence of rape or robbery or assault. All it would do is reduce homicide.

SlipperySlope

(2,751 posts)
28. London has a higher violent crime rate than *any* US city on your list.
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:20 PM
May 2013

Based on your data it looks like London is a more violent place than any US city over 250k people - even higher than Detroit.

And, like it or not, an argument can be made that banning handguns led to the increase in violent crime. Handguns were banned there in 1997 and in the 12 years that followed violent crime increased by 77%.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
29. That's not accurate.
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:26 PM
May 2013

According to the Wiki data, their rate of assault would rank them #4 in the US, and their rate of robbery would rank them #15.

What that shows it that the Americans are not uniquely violent people, like the NRA apologists like to claim. The overall rates of violent crime in London are pretty high. But their homicide rate is very low, because there are very few guns.

SlipperySlope

(2,751 posts)
31. This is the Wiki data I am citing...
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:31 PM
May 2013

According to the web page you cite, Greater London has a "Violence against the person" rate of 23.2 per 1,000 people. Normalizing that to a rate per 100,000 people gives a rate of 2320.

According to the web page you cite, Detroit has a violent crime rate of 2,137.4 per 100,000 people.

Therefore, it appears that Greater London has an 8% higher violent crime rate than Detroit.



DanTex

(20,709 posts)
34. It's not clear that "violence against the person" as measured in the UK is at all the same thing
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:39 PM
May 2013

as "violent crime" as measured in the US. That's one problem with international comparisons of the loosely defined category "violent crime": it depends on how they are counted.

Still, like I said before, the fact that there is a high level of violent crime overall, and a very low level of homicide, only makes the case for gun control stronger.

sibelian

(7,804 posts)
36. ooookay.
Tue May 14, 2013, 04:20 PM
May 2013

That's not really the subject under discussion, is it?

"an argument can be made that banning handguns led to the increase in violent crime"

So you're saying it's violent crime or lots of deaths? Violent crime, please.

SlipperySlope

(2,751 posts)
37. Consequences are a valid topic of discussion.
Tue May 14, 2013, 04:56 PM
May 2013

> That's not really the subject under discussion, is it?

Consequences, be they intended or unintended, are a valid part of any discussion.

When someone wants to use data to support a point, it is valid to discuss the nature and meaning of that data.

I can't argue against a tautology. In a world without handguns there can be no handgun deaths. That does not mean that removing firearms from the United States would meaningfully reduce our homicide rate or violent crime rate. It could possibly increase our homicide rate.

sibelian

(7,804 posts)
38. That's all very interesting, but it's not really the subject under discussion, is it?
Tue May 14, 2013, 05:15 PM
May 2013

There's a thing here that you're not discussing. I wonder why not?

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
39. There is no mechanism whereby reducing guns would increase homicide rates.
Tue May 14, 2013, 05:20 PM
May 2013

The mechanism by which guns increase homicide rates is clear: guns are more deadly than other weapons. It also is supported by the data, which shows that homicide rates are higher where there are more guns.

The data does not back the hypothesis that guns reduce crime rates. The suggestion that London's high crime rates are the result of not having enough guns is absurd. If you look at the rest of the developed world -- Canada, UK, Europe, etc. -- you find that overall violent crime rates in the US are within the normal range, but our homicide rates are far higher. This is largely due to the lethality of guns.

In fact, as I've pointed out before, the fact that they have high rates of violent crime and still have very low homicide rates actually strengthens the argument for gun control.

valerief

(53,235 posts)
32. U.S. owners don't want to save lives. They want reduce SS expenditures. Dead is better for them. nt
Tue May 14, 2013, 01:33 PM
May 2013

One_Life_To_Give

(6,036 posts)
40. Rising now, was lowest around early-mid 20th century
Tue May 14, 2013, 06:12 PM
May 2013

England didn't regulate Pistols till 1903 and already had a rate under 5 per 100,000 since 1800. And closer to 1 by 1900. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/arts/history/postgraduate/ma_studies/mamodules/hi971/topics/interpersonal/long-term-historical-trends-of-violent-crime.pdf

While the US rate was over 6 in 1900. Philadelphia at 4.6 in 1895 and the West having horrendous rates in the late 19th century.
Murder is rare in the UK because it has been that way for several centuries. Berlin has an even lower rate than London but comparatively lax gun laws. Perhaps it is something in European culture?

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
41. Yes, the gun culture in the US probably has something to do with it.
Tue May 14, 2013, 06:33 PM
May 2013

I think both the ease of getting a gun, and also just the sheer number of guns in private hands both contribute. Of course, these two are linked.

I don't think that data from 1850 is too useful in analyzing the effects of guns on modern societies. Maybe a century ago the US had a uniquely violent culture, but this is not true anymore. Our overall rates of violent crime are not higher than Western Europe, but our homicide rate is much higher.

etherealtruth

(22,165 posts)
42. Thank you so much for your posts on ths subject
Tue May 14, 2013, 06:57 PM
May 2013

They are thoughtful, insightful and very enlightening.

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