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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLowest murder rate in a century!
Startling news. Our murder rate is on track to come out at the lowest in a century, yet we still have the highest homicide rates in the "First World." It's amazing how much our perception of violent crime differs from its actual incidence.
Analytically speaking, murder is an especially interesting crime because we have pretty good homicide statistics going all the way back to 1900. Most other crimes have only been tracked since about 1960. And if you look at the murder rate in the chart below (the red line), you see that it follows an odd double-hump pattern: rising in the first third of the century, reaching a peak around 1930; then declining until about 1960; then rising again, reaching a second peak around 1990. It's been dropping ever since then.
This is the exact same pattern we see in lead ingestion among small children, offset by 21 years (the black line). Lead exposure rises in the late 1800s, during the heyday of lead paint, reaching a peak around 1910; then declines through World War II; and then begins rising again during our postwar love affair with big cars that burned high-octane leaded gasoline. Lead finally enters its final decline in the mid-70s when we begin the switch to unleaded gasoline.
This is powerful evidence in favor of the theory that lead exposure in childhood produces higher rates of violent crime in adulthood. It's one thing to have two simple curves that match up well. That could just be a coincidence. But to have two unusual double-humped curves that match up well is highly unlikely unless there really is an association. Put that together with all the statistical evidence from other countries; plus the prospective studies that have tracked lead exposure in individual children from birth; plus the MRI scans showing the actual locations of brain damage in adults who were exposed to lead as childrenput all that together and you have a pretty compelling set of evidence. Lead exposure doesn't just lower IQs and hurt educational development. It also increases violent tendencies later in life. If we want less crime 20 years from now, the best thing we can do today is clean up the last of our lead. http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/05/us-murder-rate-track-be-lowest-century
The link shows a chart tracking a correlation between lead in the environment and homicide rates.
MattBaggins
(7,905 posts)BainsBane
(53,137 posts)It's from Mother Jones. I think there is actual scientific research behind this: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline
Whisp
(24,096 posts)This sounds more like a vendetta post than anything else. How utterly ridiculous for you to say that.
BainsBane
(53,137 posts)(even if he's not one of mine). I can handle an off post of two.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Egalitarian Thug
(12,448 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)BainsBane
(53,137 posts)That is clear statistically. Because those events are so shocking and generate media attention, it gives the impression the murder rate has risen. I knew it had in fact dropped, but I didn't realize how great the decline was.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)They do tend to cluster, but they're less common now than 30 years ago. But there wasn't CNN 30 years ago.
Not compared to America, but higher than every other industrialized nation by orders of magnitude. It's pathetic that people celebrate the "lowest" murder rate ever as if it's in any way low in the first place.
Logical
(22,457 posts)BainsBane
(53,137 posts)Not all firearm deaths.
BainsBane
(53,137 posts)Or suicides, I believe, since it says murders rather than homicide or gun deaths. That's an important point. It would be interesting to compare all gun deaths over the past century.
HiPointDem
(20,729 posts)BainsBane
(53,137 posts)The numbers are for the US only.
HiPointDem
(20,729 posts)BainsBane
(53,137 posts)I can't imagine what you think I'm missing. You can follow the links in the article to read about the research on lead and violence.