So is this just the extreme edge of "normal" tornado activity, or part of climate change's

[villager]

..."new normal?"

I know -- the main thing now is to hope all the victims are okay, those kids are all right (though doubtless shaken up), etc.

But are these tornadoes fueled by the same weather changes exacerbating drought? Or were such things always possible, and such "bullets" have simply been previously dodged? (The way we, here in California, keep just living our lives until the earthquakes actually hit...)

[uppityperson]

1. I was in an F5 in 1956 in ND. There have always been big bad ones, wondering also if it is changing

becoming more

[villager]

3. I guess that's a way to refine the question: Are there going to be *more* big bad ones now

...fueled by the increased heat energy, etc.?

[MuseRider]

6. Like you, having been through an F5 in 1966

I have to wonder if they are getting stronger. I can't imagine anything worse than what we went through. When I look at this I realize at least when it happened here people were home, it was evening and we had been warned all day that it might be dicey. Only 13 dead IIRC but the entire town from one end to the other, a mile wide. This is much much worse.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. There have always been huge, destructive tornadoes.

The question is whether the big ones like this will become more frequent.

[Gravitycollapse]

4. Weather has been getting more extreme because of climate change.

However, that does not mean we can blame this one tornado or even this one storm system on climate change. That is likely an inquiry that would be impossible to figure out.

[villager]

5. I also realize you can't necessarily blame *one* storm on climate change -- but the pattern will be

well, "all too interesting," I'm afraid, when looked at over a multi-year stretch, going foward...

[Rhiannon12866]

7. They've been saying the horrific one that hit Moore, OK, has followed the path

Of a really big one from May 1999, but this one is much bigger and much worse. It's the worst many of the residents/reporters have ever seen.

[hedgehog]

8. Oddly enough, this year got off to a slow start -

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/04/07/tornado-season-forecast/2056957/

I think large tornadoes have always happened, but I think in general, there are more tornadoes and more places seeing tornadoes. I mean, I grew up in Upstate New York and we never saw tornadoes. Now there are several a year. Tornadoes in Maryland? Brooklyn?

[Cleita]

9. It's part of climate change.

I once lived in Kansas back in 1960 and there never was anything like a 2 mile wide tornado. Thom Hartmann did a riff on it today giving the scientific numbers and that it's been 160,000 years since we have had these temperatures and humidity numbers that are causing these climatic events.

[AverageJoe90]

21. Glad to hear you got lucky, but....Hartmann was definitely dead wrong on this one, sad to say. nt

[Cleita]

28. The snow is melting off the Andes, the poles and the Himalayas.

WAKE UP AND STOP SPREADING DISINFORMATION! We are out of time.

[AverageJoe90]

30. What disinfo?

The snow may be melting off the Andes, but what does that have to do with the 160,000 years claim? I like Hartmann, but he's not always right, though.

[Cleita]

32. He doesn't pull stuff out of his ass.

Here's a whole Google page of things he has done on climate change. I think you will find it informative if you bother to go through it.

http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=thom+hartmann+climate+change&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

[antigone382]

10. My admittedly limited understanding of climate science is as follows:

More extreme tornadoes have not necessarily been a typical prediction of climate scientists. That is at least partially because of how difficult tornadoes are to study, given their short duration and unpredictability; therefore, it is difficult to pinpoint the precise factors that might make tornadic activity more or less likely.

However, some climate scientists are currently speculating that there might be a link, but their efforts to determine this are being hampered by political opposition. For example, in late 2011 the New York Times reported on a proposed reorganization of the NOAA which would have made it easier to study climate phenomena, and which grew out of the desires of individuals, businesses, and municipalities to better understand the risks held by the future. This reorganization was originally proposed by the Bush administration and would have cost no extra money. But anti-climate science Republicans in the House of Representatives held up the legislation which would have authorized the change...because they're dumbfucks.

So we don't really know. Because Republicans don't want us to know.

[AverageJoe90]

24. If we can get the Republicans out of the house, it'd be a major boost to progress, I'd think.

(Of course, it'd also help if some people could stop blaming every little thing on climate change, too.....)

[Daemonaquila]

11. We won't be able to say for many years, when we have enough of a pattern.

NOAA has been tracking tornado strength since the 1950s. If you look at the F5 data (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html), it's hard to draw a hard conclusion. There are none listed for 2012, but 6 listed for 2011 during that spate of nasty storms. 1974 also was a banner year. Weather DOES seem to be more extreme - hot, cold, rainy, dry, stormy - around the world, but those trends are pretty recent. A blip or a harbinger of things to come? We will have to watch, wait, and develop better forecasting methods.

[AverageJoe90]

25. I've been saying the same thing for a while now.

If there is a "new normal" already, we still won't know for a couple more decades, maybe longer.

(And yes, better forecasting methods are key! Whether we can bypass Republican obstructionism may be a major issue, though.....)

[Cleita]

29. Snow melting off the poles and highest mountains in the world.

This hasn't happened in hundreds of years. We are going through climate change. WAKE UP!

[Texasgal]

12. F5 in Central Texas

May 27th, 1997.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Texas_tornado_outbreak

I think F5's are still pretty rare.

[rl6214]

13. I don't think this is anything new...

It's not even anywhere near the most powerful. It just happened to be caught live on TV.

[redqueen]

14. climate change

All you have to do is look at the weather systems. They've changed ... A lot. It's become more and more noticeable over the last decade. It's undeniable now really

[Texasgal]

15. I totally believe in climate change!

F5's still seem to be more rare than just "regular" tornado's. That's what I was trying to say up thread.

[redqueen]

16. oh yes, i agree... definitely

We have had a few bad years, with less severe outbreaks in between... But the systems themselves, when they do form, are much larger and more organized. I wish more meteorologists would analyze this and discuss it.

And then there's also weather system changes in other places around the world. Someone has to have noticed and written about it.

On edit ... Yes, from 2005.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050922015634.htm

[Cleita]

31. Scientists believe in climate change or rather they know it's happening with those

pesky little stats they keep track of. Also, snow is melting off the poles, the Andes and the Himalayas, events that haven't happened in hundreds and even thousands of years. It's happening all right.

[AverageJoe90]

20. Nah, they haven't changed all that much. Not yet, anyway. n/t

(P.S. I was just referring to severe weather systems, btw)

[redqueen]

22. ...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/03/20/weather-extremes-global-warming-climate-change-louis-uccellini/2003513/

Quibbling over how much is pointless. The writing has been on the wall for decades and now wr are seeing it happen. No idea what the point is in waiting until things chang to whatever extent you consider "that much" before recognizing the facts involved.

[AverageJoe90]

23. Did you read the P.S., btw?

That was an important clarification. And yes, severe weather events are indeed liable to become more common, but I've see nothing to indicate for sure that the patterns of development themselves have changed(after all, even with climate change, the fact that we get the most tornadoes from April-May-June is still true AFAIK).

[DesMoinesDem]

17. The trend is not up. It may even be slightly down. These tornados have always existed.

[Occulus]

26. Is it just me, or is there a kind of pattern to that graph?

Especially from 1975 onward.

[FarCenter]

18. Moore, OK in 1999 had one measured at 318 mph, the highest wind speed ever recorded

Doppler radar measures 318 mph wind in tornado

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/tornado/wtwur318.htm

1999 Bridge Creek – Moore tornado

The 1999 Bridge Creek–Moore tornado was an extremely powerful F5 tornado which devastated towns just outside of Oklahoma City on May 3, 1999. Throughout its one hour and 25 minute existence, the tornado covered 38 mi (61 km), destroying thousands of homes, killing 41 people and leaving $1 billion in losses behind. This ranks the tornado as the third costliest on record, not accounting for inflation.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Bridge_Creek_%E2%80%93_Moore_tornado

[AverageJoe90]

19. TBH, climate change may have played a small role.....but this was definitely always possible....

And TBH, there have been a LOT of bullets dodged in recent years as well. I can think of plenty of events that could have been a lot worse than they were.....

[Cleita]

33. For chrissakes, it's not even summer yet and tornado season is

starting, very early, may I add.

[AverageJoe90]

34. I assume you meant to say late, right?

The one thing that DOES have me concerned about the climate change component, is actually just how LATE that tornado season's taken off this year.
We had very few tornadoes in March, quite a few below normal last month, and we're only NOW seeing a major event? That DOES strike me as strange.

[hrmjustin]

27. Too early to tell. n/t

[AverageJoe90]

36. Probably so. Still wouldn't hurt to keep compiling data, though. n/t

[hrmjustin]

37. Oh sure. I think it is easier to tell with Hurricanes if it is Global Warming.

[zipplewrath]

35. Moving the mean

It will be hard to "see" in many ways. Mostly, Global Warming effects with respect to weather will tend to just move the mean in some direction or another. And that moved mean may take a few decades to document.

[daleo]

38. It's like blaming a particular cancer on a particular cigarette

You can't pin down specific instances but statistical relationships can establish causality in general, with the proper methods and sufficient evidence.

Global warming and severe weather have a similar relationship. When the first increases, so does the second.