Snowden fate in balance as Cuba backs asylum bid

[morningfog]

US intelligence leaker Edward Snowden won support from Cuba for his bid to seek asylum in Latin America as he began his third week in limbo at a Moscow airport on Monday.

Cuba, a key transit point from Russia on the way to Latin America, supported the leaders of Bolivia, Venezuela and Nicaragua, who have offered the 30-year-old fugitive a possible lifeline as he remains marooned without documents in the transit area of a Moscow airport.

“We support the sovereign rights of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and all the regional states to grant asylum to those who are being persecuted for their ideals or their fight for democratic rights, in accordance with our traditions,” Cuban leader Raul Castro said on Sunday.

Speaking to Cuba’s national assembly, Castro did not say whether his country, which has been showing signs of mending ties with Washington, would itself offer refuge to Snowden.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/07/08/snowden-fate-in-balance-as-cuba-backs-asylum-bid/

[HooptieWagon]

1. I fully expected Cuba to aid Venezuela, Nicaragua.

Cuba has close relationships with those countries. They probably won't themselves offer asylum, but will aid their allies in doing so.

[morningfog]

2. I agree. Putting the pieces together, Snowden has his way out.

Russia has said they could give him a "stateless status" to allow him to leave. He can fly to Venezuela or Nicaragua via Cuba. Can a flight go non-stop from Moscow to Cuba?

[HooptieWagon]

3. Aeroflot has 5 non-stop flights weekly.

Every day except wed and fri. Transaero has a non-stop flight on fridays. Those appear to be only non-stop flights to Cuba from Moscow. I couldn't find any non-stop flights to SA from Moscow by any airline.
There does appear to be an overflight problem, crossing Baltic and/or Scandinavian countries that might not allow it with Snowden aboard. That appears to be Snowden's problem. It is possible to fly non-stop from Moscow to Havana without overflying any other countries. But that is a much longer route, and likely means a private charter.

[allin99]

4. i really think his only 2 options are a non-american...

with a private jet or able to find someone in an unfriendly country to rent him one,

or venezuela picking him up himself, or some other president from latin america borrowing venezuela's plane.

(although, maybe president of a country can rent a plane, i hear bolivian president's plane was rented?)

[HooptieWagon]

8. There are several options.

Commercial jet from Moscow to Havana, if Baltic and Scandinavian countries permit overflight. Private charter jet which flies longer route not requiring overflight, but costs a lot. Catching a ride on a non-stop cargo jet willing to fly longer route for a little extra money. And lastly, taking several flights from Moscow, to Middle East, to W Africa, to Venezuela.
Each scenerio has problems to be solved.

[allin99]

21. How does he fly commercial to havana under the risk that...

they don't let him pass over their airspace?

[HooptieWagon]

26. Thats probably why its taking time to arrange. nt

[allin99]

51. you'd have to get...

all of them to swear on a stack of 20 bibles before taking their word for it.

[HooptieWagon]

54. If permission is granted through diplomatic channels...

And then revoked after the plane takes off, then the country loses a lot of leverage in future negotiations. Why would they be trusted again?

[allin99]

58. good point. Personally...

if i were france, and obviously i'm not, lol, but i would not let him pass. no way jose. I have nothing to gain. The US and France got together to bomb Libya, they are best buds, if you could help it, would you let your best friend's currect biggest adversary escape passed you, while you have nothing to gain by doing so?

I mean, it could happen, but, unless it's mandated by international law that they absolutely must and if they don't something bad happens to them, not sure why on earth they would let it happen.

[Catherina]

60. There's talk of forming an activist flytilla

with people like Noam Chomsky, Oliver Stone, John Cussack, ACLU etc to escort hm on the same flight to provide a thin layer of protection and bring visibility to any transgressions.

[HooptieWagon]

61. I don't think that will be much actual help.

Looks more like a public show of support...which is fine itself.
If the airplane were to overfly countries not permitting it, there would be major repercussions. Mostly, the airline doing so would lose all future overflight permission, which would force them to take longer routes, using more fuel, and probably put them out of business. No commercial airline would risk that.
As far as forcing the plane down physically, or even shooting it down, I don't think the US would do that. Snowden is only wanted by the US. Disrupting a commercial flight would bring international condemnation and possible sanctions. Obama has already put the US in an isolated positiin inre the spying, he would be incredibly stupid to make the situation many times worse.

[Catherina]

62. Me neither, that's why I said thin

Right now they seem to be leaning towards a private jet at the cost of $200,000-$400,000. The whole flytilla thing isn't an ideea that excites me. I don't trust them not to bring down a commercial flight either. All they have to do is close the airspace as they did to Morales. They've already shown they have no regard for conventions and that international condemnation means little to them. Look at the impunity with which we've waged all sorts of illegal wars. Sanctions? Who would sanction us? Certainly not the European countries who are as dirty as we are, just less powerful. And the UN is a joke.

By the way, aren't we due a State Department briefing today? I just checked and there was nothing up. I want to see what they have to say for themselves.

[HooptieWagon]

64. Yes. $200K or more is my estimate for a private flight.

That could get him straight to Caracas non-stop, without having to overfly any countries whatsoever. Its also feasible to get him on a cargo jet non-stop to Havana, and pay them the added cost of taking the longer route. That might be $100 K or so.
I think US interference will be limited to getting countries to deny overflight. I would be shocked if they forced the plane down from international airspace. The flytilla is a good public show of support, but contributing to the cost of Snowden's flight is more useful.

[arely staircase]

5. They all cross US airspace

which should make things interesting. Snowden must be wondering if Putin has made arrangements with the US for the plane to have to land in Atlanta of Miami for some mechanical reason.

[HooptieWagon]

6. Probably only a little of Florida. No problem.

[arely staircase]

7. So they will divert to Miami then

when they need to get a mechanic to look at the whatever gauge. This has to have run through Snowden's mind. Probably the delay in answering the Venezuelans.

[HooptieWagon]

9. Doubtful.

If Russia hasn't turned him over to US by now, they wouldn't fly all the way to Miami to deliver him in person. Your prejudice is distorting reality.
Its only a small detour to avoid Florida. The problem is at beginning of flight, overflight of Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Possible to avoid them by flying well north, but thats a much greater distance.

[arely staircase]

11. It gives Putin the perfect way to do it without looking like he did it.

nt

[HooptieWagon]

12. Oh, bullshit.

Putin doesn't give a shit. If he was to turn over Snowden to US, he'd just say "come and get him". Why the hell would he order a commercial jet to divert to US, make a special stop, just to deliver Snowden in person? Thats just idiotic.

[arely staircase]

13. like I said he doesn't want to look like he turned Snowden over

nt

[HooptieWagon]

19. I don't think Putin cares about his image to the West.

[arely staircase]

27. Image, no - hence the refusal (publicly) to hand Snowden over

Actual relations, yes - hence the refusal to give Snowden asylum.

An unscheduled landing in Miami for mechanical reasons would allow him to have his cake and eat it too.

It is at least a scenario that I bet Mr. Snowden has thought about. Or certainly should consider before hopping on that plane headed straight to the US East Coast.

‘‘Right now, for example, there’s an intensified relationship between U.S. and Russian security services focused on Dagestan and counter-terrorism, leading up to the Sochi Olympics, “ explained Lukyanov. ‘’The Kremlin and the Russian security community wouldn’t want to derail everything because of this Snowden guy.’’

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/08/19354563-analysis-asylum-deadline-looms-for-snowden-might-he-stay-in-russia?lite

[flamingdem]

55. Interesting speculation, one thing is for sure, there's a tangle

to figure out of epic proportions.

[Ohio Joe]

10. I'm not understanding what is happening now...

I thought there were flights via Cuba from Russia to Venezuela... If Venezuela has granted asylum and Cuba supports it... Why is Snowden still living in an airport?

[flamingdem]

15. See this post from last night about Wikileaks pressuring Raul Castro

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3196256

[Ohio Joe]

20. Interesting...

I know squat about the laws on stuff like this... It makes following it all a bit confusing. Thanks!

[HooptieWagon]

16. Because the Moscow to Havana flights probably overfly Estonia and Finland.

Might be a problem getting them to allow overflight with Snowden aboard, if US is pressuring them not to.

[flamingdem]

14. Cuba cannot help because they have an agreement with the US from 2006

to return any US fugitives who land there.

They could of course try to justify this case but there will be retaliation.

Right now they're bettering the relationship with the USA so I'm sure they're being very careful about entering into the fray.

That said the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington just tweeted that there has been no word from Snowden regarding the offer by Venezuela.

Has to make you wonder what's going on, and the idea of an offer with a time limit? Loco.

[HooptieWagon]

18. Bullshit. There is no current extradition treaty with Cuba.

Sometimes they will return a fugitive, sometimes not.

[flamingdem]

23. Please refrain from aggressive posts - we can converse without that - here is info

In the State Department’s 2006 report detailing why it would continue to list Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, it noted that Cuban authorities had given assurances they would no longer accept “new” U.S. fugitives (whether their crimes were considered political or not). Allowing Snowden to transit Cuba would be a break of faith from that assurance given. Allowing a fugitive to transit your territory is tantamount to giving refuge, as the fugitive wouldn’t be able to reach their ultimate destination without the transit stop.

To be clear, though, Cuba’s 2006 agreement is nowhere near binding. The country could surely offer to assist Snowden if it wanted to. The point is that Havana doesn’t seem to want to do this sort of thing anymore.

[HooptieWagon]

37. Cuba has already said they'd help.

And allowing Snowden to change planes in a transit zone isn't giving him refuge any more than Russia permitting him to stay in a transit zone temporarily is.
And my response to bullshit being posted is to call it bullshit. Any extradition from or to Cuba is negotiated on a case by case basis, with the Swiss Embassy in Havana acting as the go-between. There is no extradition treaty in effect.

[flamingdem]

39. Where did they say they'd help? Did they offer to let them land?

I don't see that anywhere. They may allow it and they may not

[HooptieWagon]

48. Link

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/07/08/snowden-fate-in-balance-as-cuba-backs-asylum-bid/

[former9thward]

63. Cuba has dozens of U.S. fugitives.

Whatever the 2006 agreement says it is not worth anything. There are fugitives there on the FBI's 10 most wanted. http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/31/3424972/state-department-havana-provides.html

[flamingdem]

17. See thread about Wikileaks pressuring Raul Castro via social media, they need them to say "si"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3196256

[HooptieWagon]

22. Castro already said he would aid Venezuela or Nicaragua.

in giving Snowden asylum. Try to keep up.

[flamingdem]

25. Another aggressive post, with a put down included

Please try to grow up

[Cleita]

31. Since when is posting facts aggressive?

[flamingdem]

32. You are jumping in to help this aggressive person, why?

Are you just as nasty, really?

[Cleita]

34. Only you have labeled him as aggressive. I believe it can be regarded as name calling. n/t

[flamingdem]

36. You are ganging up and haven't offered any facts nt

[Cleita]

46. You haven't either on your assertions. n/t

[HooptieWagon]

45. When facts collide with the "reality-based" community, evidently.

Challenging their fantasy version of the facts is being aggressive in their little bubble.

[flamingdem]

56. That's very obnoxious, when will you stop acting like a child?

This isn't even a partisan thread

[HooptieWagon]

59. Don't eat the brown acid.

[allin99]

24. how bad do you think they'd treat cuba...

just for letting him transfer planes there? just curious. He's already he backs them doing it, i know that's not nearly as offensive to us as letting them land there, but...

[flamingdem]

28. Well because there are so many right wing Cuban Americans in congress

something would have to happen.

They'd use it for their own anti-Castro agenda.

There is always negotiation going on between the two countries. One biggie is immigration accords.

So Cuba can be damaged for sure.

[Cleita]

29. Two hurdles now jumped, getting nations to offer asylum and getting Cuba to allow him to land.

The next two hurdles are the traveling papers he requires, which I think will be forth coming, and the clearance to fly over airspace in Europe so there won't be the Evo Morales fiasco in trying to fly to Cuba. This will be a sticky wicket IMHO unless France and Spain et al are too embarrassed by the Morales affair to deny it.

[flamingdem]

30. Did you see something about Cuba allowing them to land?

I think they just gave support for the asylum offers, nothing more

[Cleita]

33. Duh!

[flamingdem]

35. What about the facts you mentioned, where are your facts to back that?

?

[Cleita]

41. It's your sub-thread, you are supposed to come up with the facts if you don't feel that

when someone supports you they are not on the same page as you. Allowing him to land there without arresting him like the USA wants and letting him transfer on to a plane flying to Venezuela is pretty much granting him asylum in transit, much as the Russians are doing letting him stay in the airport, if he is, in fact there, which I personally question.

[flamingdem]

42. It isn't my OP

[Cleita]

49. You're right. I corrected the word. n/t

[HooptieWagon]

52. link

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/07/08/snowden-fate-in-balance-as-cuba-backs-asylum-bid/

[morningfog]

38. Russia has indicated they would let him leave and travel under a "stateless" status.

[flamingdem]

40. Well I don't see that Castro has offered his airport

And the "stateless" thing ain't going to fly with Tio Sam

[Cleita]

43. Right now most of the world is giving the middle finger to Tio Sam.

It's on the front pages of most news outlets.

[morningfog]

44. Castro offered support to those nations that may grant him asylum.

What better support than letting him land.

By the way, you predicted Snowden would be in US custody two days ago. I really wish I was making money bets against all these predictions.

[Cleita]

47. Me too.

[HooptieWagon]

50. Link

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/07/08/snowden-fate-in-balance-as-cuba-backs-asylum-bid/

[flamingdem]

53. That's my point, there has been no offer of passage nt

[HooptieWagon]

57. Then what do you think they mean by "help"?

Sit on the sidelines and clap? The only possible help Cuba can give is allowing a plane from Russia to land with Snowden aboard, and allow him to change planes. Cuba is on good terms with Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. There is no reason to assume they won't help, and the only help they can offer is for transit. If you think it means something else, then have a happy hallucination.