The generational cycle hypothesis is proving true. Fourth Turning and all

[Taverner]

The generational cycle hypothesis is proving true. That is the Strauss–Howe generational theory.

Basically our current state is known as the "fourth turning," which will be a time of frugality, prompting a reduction in our consumer culture - thus destroying their marketing, IT, accounting, and sales departments and replacing them with automated ones.

Basically we are seeing something akin to the industrial revolution, where old jobs were phased out, labor was cheap but started to organize. This swell built up throughout the gilded age with the Anarchist, Socialist and Communist movements. With the perceived Bolshevik win, and Makhno's Ukraine, a new society was beginning. But unfortunately the Anarchists were chased out, and in the case of the US, hunted down. (The Anarchists kind of had it coming though, with "propaganda of the deed" and the bombing of Wall Street, and killing of a President.)

Anyway, at this point we are all connected digitally - which means organizing is going to make it work this time. And without violence - it can be as simple as the abolition of the stock market, a general strike and a redistribution of wealth.

[silverweb]

1. I hope you're right!

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]And I hope I see a full, peaceful, democratic-socialistic turn in my lifetime.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. That book was amazing for me

It predicted 9/11 and the subsequent wars, more or less. And the current state of calamity.

The part that irritates me is the the authors are right-wing wackos. On the other hand, they didn't come up with the idea, they just wrote a good book about it.

[Taverner]

4. They noticed a trend

Last edited Mon Jul 15, 2013, 12:58 AM - Edit history (1)

Yes they are right wing whackos.

But their theory suggests there is a chance for change in about 20 years from now.

Socialist, Anarchist, and even Communist parties are growing in numbers faster than can be explained simply by a growing population.

That all came to a head in the 20s with the Palmer raids

But back then the real weapon - the printed word - was harder to mass produce

And underground distribution was limited

Today, however, we have the internet

Imagine a national strike coordinated via the internet

Imagine the elimination of the stock market

Imagine revolution without a single bullet shot

No bombs, no killing Presidents*


* By this I am referring to the McKinley Assassination by an Anarchist

[MannyGoldstein]

5. I see your point, and hope that you're right

But people are people, and force is force.

Germany in the early part of the last century was possibly the most welcoming country in the world for Jews. Jews held high positions in government, were leaders in business, academia and the arts, were totally integrated into society - in fact 50% of Jews who married, married non-Jews as in the US today.

A few years later, Krystalnacht, the ghettoes, and the camps.

It's amazing what lunatics with weapons can do in short order when the people ar mesmerized. We saw that here, after 9/11.

I think it could have happened in the US, too, had we put a Hitler in power instead of an FDR.

[Taverner]

6. Yes and they can organize too

It's all going to come down to empathy vs antipathy

[wilsonbooks]

7. That is the problem with revolutions,

The are likely to be fascist in nature or ruled by the mob.

My fondest hope was that obama was going to be another FDR. We all know how that one turned out.

[Taverner]

8. President Charles Lindburgh

Although if it were President Joe Kennedy, I would bet donuts to dollars WWII would have have had us involved in the early 40s. His "appeasement" was more of a buying time measure, albeit to make sure all his money was out of Europe. It's a complicated story.

I still want the alternate reality where Henry Wallace becomes president after FDR dies, follows through with the Second Bill of Rights, no cold war, USSR gradually evolves into a Social Democracy in the 70s, with this Khrushchev protege named Mikhail Gorbachev taking the reins instead of Brezhnev.

Oh, health care in the 70s from President Jerry Brown, as well as gay marriage in the 80s with the first one being performed at Live Aid, and then John Lennon never gets shot because we have strict gun control measures from the 60s.

This crackpot conspiracy theorist Richard Nixon is on the radio on a show called "Coast to Coast."

[diane in sf]

27. I like your version of reality!

[Taverner]

29. Did I mention that the Beatles reunite at the 91 Live Aid concert?

They do an amazing version of "Maybe I'm Amazed" where John and Paul trade vocals, and a version of " Just like Starting Over" with all four Beatles doing harmonies?

[hedda_foil]

12. Harding wasn't assassinated by an anarchist. McKinley was.

In Chicago, with Mayor Cermak. Hence, the ascension of Theodore Roosevelt.

[Taverner]

14. Oops. Big oops. McKinley

I'm getting old

[Avalux]

3. Brilliant! K&R!!

[Dawson Leery]

9. Don't forget Toynbee. He saw the cycle of creation though destruction.

He did not title the phases as Howe and Strauss have though.

[struggle4progress]

10. Don't over-estimate the advantages of digital connection

It's a good way to share info and to give various analyses some exposure

But it has substantial limitations as an organizing tool

An example I posted a few years ago on DU2 concerned a protest movement somewhere in Asia, Malaysia IIRC. Folk there had the bright idea of flash mob protests, coordinated by cellphone texting. The authorities responded simply by turning off the cellphone towers

[Taverner]

11. There are Bluetooth P2P communication tools you can use

You all choose a 'channel' and talk directly with each other

And it works better in a tight group

[snot]

19. The net is also an awesome surveillance tool.

I hope you're right; but t.p.t.b. have moved very quickly to turn the net into a tool that gives them a great deal of power while limiting ours.

[Taverner]

20. That is true, but the beauty is that it can work both ways

However try this for a dystopian idea:

Imagine a culture where any one can look at any place in any city, every home, city, park, highway, street, restaurant, etc... is available via public webcam. Every single dash cam is stored and available for anyone to look at any time.

It's Jeremy Bentham's 'ever present eye'

[snot]

21. I'm excited to see the transformations that will take place, believe me.

It just seems like we're at a turning point, and it concerns me that so many people remain so oblivious, myopic, passive.

[Taverner]

22. With the millennials its not passive

It may look passive, but it's that hyperfocus with a poker face

The millennials are going to pull it off, I think

Exactly what off, well that's up to them

[Dawson Leery]

30. kick

[HiPointDem]

23. it's orwell's big brother

[Taverner]

25. Yes but Orwell's Big Brother had police that watched

But only they had that right

What if anyone would watch anyone at any time or place

Tyranny by the people?

[HiPointDem]

26. it won't ever be anyone watching anything.

[Taverner]

31. This is just a thought experiment

Imagine any SO could check on their other at any time, to see if they are cheating

At the same time, if the SO purchases a weapon, that is monitored and can be seen in real time or via playback


Kind of adds a new dimension to PK Dick's "precrime" thought experiment

[Egalitarian Thug]

24. But it is the next great advance in human communication.

And in each previous evolution of communication the whole world radically changed. We just have to do our best to steer the change toward making it better for the rest of us.

[DirkGently]

13. Entirely possible. Something's got to give. n/t

[Silent3]

15. And we all get a pony.

Please don't forget the pony!

[Taverner]

16. I would like to own myself for starts

We are are all serfs of some sort at this point, with the number rising

[RainDog]

17. capitalists have gone global. people are doing the same

we are connected to others around the world who work for a living and their struggles are ours as all seek to simply be able to keep a roof over our heads and provide food for our families.

we need a global living wage and this needs to be done by way of treaties.

I know this won't happen because of the U.S. or China - so those people in nations who have strong unions and unified people need to create the opportunity for this to happen all over the world.

[Taverner]

18. Global Living Wage!

If our world could do that, it would be the catalyst for us behaving like a planet and not a nation state, corporation or prisoner.

[SheilaT]

28. I found that the book "Generations"

by Strauss and Howe to be the single most illuminating book I've ever read. I frequently recommend it here on DU, and I'm yet -- in the more than 20 years since it was published -- to meet anyone else who has ever read it.

Those two guys are NOT right wing nut cases. They lay out a careful analysis of history and its cycles. There are certainly other ways to explain history, but this one resonates with me. It has a validity that has held up for twenty years. I find I can often understand what's going on when I look at who is doing what, and when they were born, and placing them within the cycles that Strauss and Howe lay out in their book.

Read it.