Snowden’s Endgame - Game theory suggests how his odyssey might end.

[flamingdem]

* I think that Snowden could leave via private jet and that $ is his obstacle. However, there is a deadline of perhaps a couple of weeks with preparations for the summit in Moscow next September. This factor will limit his choices.

--- snip

The players left are Russia, the United States, its allies, and the airlines. For Russia, Snowden has gone from being a nice poke at the United States to a nuisance. Barack Obama has already signaled that the United States does not consider Snowden a spy, which commits himself to refusing any sort of swap. As a result, for once Vladimir Putin is in damage control mode. He needs to get Snowden out of Russia before Obama arrives for September’s G20 summit, except in the unlikely scenario that Snowden can offer him something that makes the embarrassment worthwhile.

Russia needs Snowden to leave, but the other players are stopping him. No airline wants the potential disruption to its service implied by having Snowden on board. His is one ticket they simply don’t want to sell. So if Snowden goes anywhere, it will probably be on a charter or private flight.

But even if someone will pay for Snowden’s plane – and there are plenty of candidates – American allies on Russia’s borders won’t let Snowden fly through their airspace. American power still means something in the world, and many countries would be happy to scramble a few fighters to bring Snowden’s plane back to earth. Even in Paris, there aren’t many people protesting to open up French skies.

The positions of the airlines and American allies are costing them almost nothing and are unlikely to change anytime soon, so Russia is in a quandary. I suspect that the Russians will allow Snowden to be captured in a way that saves face and leaves them looking blameless. Perhaps he will get on a plane with a supposedly safe flight path that suddenly changes. Or maybe an obscure regulation will come to light that ends his stay at the airport and leads to extradition. Whatever happens, this game is unlikely to end with Snowden as the winner – unless he thinks he’s won already.



Putin reiterated this today:

“There are certain relations between Russia and United States, we would not like you to harm them with your activity,” Putin quoted dialogue between Russian officials and Snowden.

http://bigthink.com/econ201/snowdens-endgame

[randome]

1. When Snowden's back is against the wall, he will say he wants to spend more time with his family.

In other words, he'll say that after extensive conversations with his father, he has decided the best thing to do is surrender so that he can better spread his dire warnings.

And this 'surrender' will be with Russian guards escorting him out of the transit hotel.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]

[flamingdem]

3. I thought this was the reason for the delay

but there hasn't been a peep from Daddy Snowden.

It won't fly unless approved by the closet resident in London!

[randome]

5. There doesn't need to be a peep. Snowden can say whatever he wants.

Which is pretty much how he got in this mess in the first place.

I hope Ecuador learned its lesson with Assange. He's shown he can't be trusted. Will he be the next hero-in-hiding to be ousted?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]

[flamingdem]

7. Something tells me Correa is sick of Assange

When the Snowden brouhaha cools down he'll have him removed I bet. Before that he'll have to reprimand his buddy who is a high level diplomat there and arranged the phoney paperwork that helped the Snowman out of HK

[dipsydoodle]

2. Perhaps he'll fly somewhere on a Boeing Dreamliner

Problem solved.

[randome]

4. Yikes! Or an Asiana flight? No way!

I'm too curious to want to know who else conspired with him.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. Eventually he'll be granted amnesty like the draft resistors who fled.

Or, the regime will come to its senses and give him his passport back and restore some of its "democracy" creds.

[flamingdem]

8. He's not getting his passport back or amnesty

so in terms of game theory other avenues have to be developed.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

9. That's what they said about the "traitors" in Canada.

[snooper2]

22. "the regime"

How far we have come since a couple years ago

[leftynyc]

31. No - he wont

be granted amnesty and that suggestion is absurd. If he wants to turn himself in, fine. If not, let him figure out how to get to his pals in South America. You seem to think he holds some cards when it comes to his relationship with the US - he holds nothing. And "the regime"? Rolling my eyes isn't enough at that crap. You think people outside the US give a shit about snowden? You're delusional.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

32. They said the same thing about the draft resistors in Canada. They were the "traitors" then.

Yet....they're back.

The people outside the US don't care? Try reading the foreign press.

[leftynyc]

34. I just spent two weeks

in Europe reading the papers and watching BBC and Euronews so go lecture someone else. There wasn't a person who gave a shit about him - 95% of the people think all governments spy and it's the price we pay for living in a society that tolerates an internet - the only thing they had to say about snowden is laughter that he's still hiding out in the moscow airport. The Europeans care about their economy, they care about what's going on in Egypt, in Syria (and some cricket match between the UK and Australia) - this nobody they don't give a shit about.

Do you have any idea how long it took for the President to grant amnesty to the draft dodgers? And you think they're going to give it to this asshole?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

35. Draft dodgers? But, however long, they did "give it".

Try reading the German and Brazilian press to see how they don't give a shit.

[leftynyc]

46. You seem to think

that merely writing about the issue is important. How are the GOVERNMENTS of our allies responding? Has anyone recalled their ambassadors? Closed their embassies in protest? Have their people taken to the streets in protest of their relationship with the US over this issue? Done anything that actually MEANS anything? You can hold your breath and stamp your feet all you want - nobody gives a shit about Snowden.

[Cha]

44. mahalo for your perspective from visiting

Europe, leftnyc

[leftynyc]

47. I had to look up maholo

and I thank you (maholo) for teaching me something today. The desire here to see the Europeans forget about their lousy economy and the unbelievably high unemployment (especially for the young) in order to take to the streets and protest their government's relationship with the US is delusional at best. There wasn't one person, not even one, who considered Snowden some kind of hero for what he did.

[Cha]

50. That's good. Because I don't

think Snowden's a hero.. no matter how much he, greenwald, and ass ange try to cram it down everyone's throat.

It's "Mahalo".

Aloha, leftnyc

[arely staircase]

10. this is what I have suspected all along:

"Russians will allow Snowden to be captured in a way that saves face and leaves them looking blameless."

I posted a while back that a plane headed to one of the countries that have offered him asylum will have to make "an unscheduled landing due to mechanical problems" somewhere on the US East Coast. Russia looks blameless, the US doesn't "force down" a commercial jet, and the traitor is secure in the custody of US Marshalls and off to be arraigned in the US District of Northern Virginia.

[flamingdem]

13. If Snowden agrees with your suspicions

then he may be better off taking a land route and then fly without being detected.

Of course to do that he'd need at least temporary Russian asylum and Putin doesn't seem to be in the mood to grant that now.

A commercial flight is perhaps his best bet. I really can't see the US messing with any flights, much less commercial, but Snowden fears this so he may not try it. Also, the article makes that point that the commercial airlines won't sell him a ticket, not sure about that.

[arely staircase]

15. the scenario I described has to be weighing on his mind.

The US wouldn't have to really overtly do anything to a commercial flight. The pilot (as arranged beforehand) simply decides he needs to land in Atlanta to get whatever looked at.

And even if we wouldn't do that (and I think we would) Snowden must consider that before stepping on any aircraft that will flay right down the East Coast of the US.

[flamingdem]

16. That's the best scenario for the US and Putin

but how do they get a pilot to go along.

It will look a bit obvious.

[arely staircase]

23. I am sure Putin can have an Aeroflot pilot do whatever he asks

and it will look obvious but still give both sides deniability.

[winter is coming]

11. I've no doubt that Russia would like to end this with some plausible deniability,

but I think it's far more likely they'll find a way to let Snowden escape. That way, they can stick it to the U.S. without being blamed for it. If nothing else, that would appeal greatly to Putin's ego.

[flamingdem]

14. Good point. Escape would be the grey area of allowing his movement

outside of the transit zone.


Ed needs a good disguise.

[rhett o rick]

12. The message is clear. Toe the authoritarian state line or suffer. And the authoritarian state is

international. Sad day for freedom and liberty. War criminals walk while those trying to expose tyranny get prosecuted.

[dipsydoodle]

17. Putin reiterated this today.................

That solely was in context with whether or not Snowden would agree not to publish further information / data.

What Putin actually said is here . You can at least guarantee with RT News Moscow that their translations are accurate.

Putin: Snowden will leave Russia at earliest opportunity.

When asked about what was next for Snowden, Putin replied: “How should I know? That’s his life, his fate.”

Putin also recalled that Snowden was initially offered an opportunity to apply for asylum in Russia, but only if he stops his “political activity.”

“There are certain relations between Russia and United States, we would not like you to harm them with your activity,” Putin quoted Russian officials during their dialogue with Snowden. “He said no...he said, ‘I want to continue my activity, fighting for human rights. I think the US is violating certain international regulations and intervening in private lives and my goal to fight this.'"

http://rt.com/news/putin-snowden-asylum-russia-118/

[wandy]

18. So, when are we going to start pressuring our congress critters to clip the NSA's wings.........

To hell with Snowden!
Loose cannons often find they have bitten off more than they can hide.
Snowden is NOT the problem.
This "Total Information Awareness" bull shit is the problem.

That is what we need to be working on.

[randome]

19. Let's hear an official statement that TIA does not exist, if nothing else.

Let's hear what sort of access contractors have with the system.

Let's hear what kind of measures are in place to ensure that someone like Snowden can't steal national security secrets again.

Let's at least publish statistics and reports on what kind of FISA warrants are approved and what kind of safeguards and restrictions are in place to prevent the data from being misused.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]

[wandy]

20. Spot on. This is what we should be raising hell about. nt

[riqster]

28. +1

[morningfog]

21. Russia wants him out soon, but is not willing to turn him over to the US.

I think he'll be on his was to SA well before the G20 summit.

[arely staircase]

24. That is true but I would add

that flight to SA will include an unscheduled stop in Miami or Atlanta so the pilot can get some something mechanical looked at.

[Pholus]

26. Sorry, looks like too little, too late! :)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/snowdens-surveillance-leaks-provide-openings-for-opponents-legal-challenges/2013/07/15/481c35b2-eb25-11e2-a301-ea5a8116d211_story.html

Let the sunshine in to disinfect the swamp!

[arely staircase]

27. I see nothing in that story that makes his capture less likely

either within the possible scenario I described or another. did you post the right link?

[Pholus]

30. Please keep your eye on the Snowden!

The actual discussion will be proceeding with or without him.

[Waiting For Everyman]

48. ^That's^ a good article on the new legal actions against the NSA

Snowden’s surveillance leaks open way for challenges to programs’ constitutionality (article title)
...
At least five cases have been filed in federal courts since the government’s widespread collection of telephone and Internet records was revealed last month. The lawsuits primarily target a program that scoops up the telephone records of millions of Americans from U.S. telecommunications companies.
...
“There is one critical difference from the Bush era. We now have indisputable physical evidence that the conduct being challenged is actually taking place,’’ said Stephen Vladeck, an expert on national security law at American University law school. He said Snowden’s disclosures make it “more likely” that cases will at least be allowed to go forward in court, leading to a years-long legal battle over surveillance and privacy.
...

This is a big deal. This is why we owe him some gratitude. Without Snowden's evidence, these plaintiffs had no standing to sue to try to stop this abuse through the courts. The leaks have also given some in Congress enough info to go on, to begin looking into these programs for the first time.

Thanks, Pholus, for posting this.

[Cleita]

25. If it were possible to put Snowden on a private jet, I think Putin would

pay for it himself. The problem is that it would be shot out of the sky once over international waters. We have the capability to do this. Putin knows that.

[AlinPA]

29. Money is no problem for him; he has information to sell.

[flamingdem]

33. Interesting thought. He might be cutting a deal

as we speak.

I think his number one goal is avoiding prison right now.
How much do you want to bet Assange, Wikileaks will get
a cut. They have expenses too.

[FarCenter]

36. The transit lounge at Moscow Airport is the best option for US and Russia

If Russia sends Snowden to US, then the dead man switch releases the decryption keys to Snowden's archive.

So until that situation is defused somehow, he can't be sent to the US, captured by the US from a flight, etc.

So it is a stand-off. The US and Russia can't move against him, nor can Snowden exert leverage by releasing the archive. If he releases the archive, he has no more leverage.

If he doesn't cave, the more likely end game is that Snowden disappears, Russia claims he left for an unspecified destination, and the archive may/may not be released.

[flamingdem]

37. I see the reality of what you're saying

but there's a catch. Obama had said he will not attend the summit in September if Snowden is there.
Preparations are starting for the conference right now.

I never saw a quote on that but it was referred to in an article.

Thus, Putin might be more inclined to do anything to get him out of the airport, as long as he can deny any responsibility, the quicker the better.

[FarCenter]

38. Obama can refuse to meet with Putin, but can he refuse to go to St. Petersburg G20 Summit?

The meeting with Putin in September is billed as the second half of the meeting that occurred this spring. You can remember the picture of them together after their talk. It's not clear that they have anything constructive to say to each other.

Obama may want to snub Putin by not attending the G20 meeting. But can the US afford not to go to the G20 meeting? Can it keep other G20 members away from St. Petersburg?

[flamingdem]

39. I see what you mean, wonder if it's true Obama said he wouldn't go

because then he'd be stuck having to stick to that.

He must have made the statement fungible.

The outstanding question to me is whether Russia will grant asylum.

If they are sincere and Eddy is just taking time to get the application in
well then he can move from there.

This is what it sounds like on one level, temporary asylum, so they're
waiting to have the transportation set up and then we'll hear the
Russians describe it as temporary with a flight set up to Venezuela, etc

I don't think the USA has any intention of interfering with a flight.

They might not even get a heads up on the flight if it's private and
not crossing US airspace.

[FarCenter]

40. But Snowden has temporary asylum in the transit area

There is no reason to admit him into Russia where he is less controlled. In the transit area, the FSB can keep track of him.

There is no need on the part of the US and Russia to hurry anything about this situation. Snowden is stuck in the transit area, just like Assange is stuck at the Ecuadoran embassy in London. There is no upside to letting them move about.

[flamingdem]

41. So they'll wait until he can't take it, or something else gives

I suppose Wikileaks will support him. Maybe Russia is supplying a free hotel room. Would be interesting to know since it's some $300 a night.

[FarCenter]

42. And actually, the US opposed temporary asylum, not his staying in the terminal

The call came after Snowden said he wanted to claim temporary refuge in Russia, where he has been staying in an airport transfer lounge, until he could figure out how to reach permanent asylum in South America.
...

Top US officials warned Moscow that offering such status to Snowden would undercut its statements that it did not want the affair to harm relations with Washington.

"Providing a propaganda platform for Mr Snowden runs counter to the Russian government's previous declarations of Russia's neutrality," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

"It's also incompatible with Russian assurances that they do not want Mr Snowden to further damage US interests."

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-07-13/us/40553189_1_edward-snowden-mr-snowden-moscow-airport

The fact that Snowden is in Moscow and that the G20 summit is in St. Petersburg is also a helpful diplomatic fig leaf.

When U.S. President Barack Obama met with President Vladimir Putin in June at the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland, discussions clearly did not go well. The result for the two normally charismatic men was a painfully awkward display before cameras that showed a glaring lack of chemistry between the two.

Relations between the two countries have not improved since then. With the ongoing dispute about fugitive US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden's presence in Moscow, and differences over Syria and human rights, there have been questions about whether Obama and Putin will hold another one-on-one meeting at the G20.

White House Spokesman Jay Carney told reporters in Washington on Friday that Obama still plans to attend the G20, where he is scheduled to meet again with Putin on Sept. 5.

"The G20 is going to be a significant event in our economic discussions … I hope it will be another confirmation that there are issues in the world where we all stand to benefit more by working together than by working against one other. Economics today is one of these areas," said Kislyak.

Read more: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-lays-out-priorities-for-september-g20-summit/483111.html
The Moscow Times

[flamingdem]

43. Good catch. I hadn't read that the call was related to the request

for temporary asylum. That makes sense because Obama could call out
Putin since temporary asylum means that Snowden can leak when it's over.

We're not hearing Snowden saying anything on the topic. He must have been
advised to drop talk about temporary asylum.

I can see why you concluded the transit lounge is all he's got now.

My theory is that the US will not impede a private jet, and may not even know
about it. I can see Putin letting him leave on one just to get rid of him.

But there's a problem there, it's not just the 200,000 dollars it would cost but
the risk to the company renting the plane. They'll be extra insurance to pay.
We're back to the suggestion in a post above that has Eddie exchanging data
for money.

Or we're reduced to diplomatic flights. I don't think Maduro or Morales want
to invest anything to help him. However, they'll eventually fly to Moscow again.
.. Next year!

[FarCenter]

45. Snowden will probably be in the transit area through the G20 meeting.

A source in Sheremetyevo airport said that Snowden still has a room reserved in the capsule hotel in the transit zone, but that he also has access to a "special rest room for staff on duty," Interfax reported.

"Snowden's safety is being guarded both in the hotel and in this room," the source said, without elaborating whether such precautions were handled by a security firm or a government agency.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gWrarFQFL3XybsNR4PHGk1U2-JuA?docId=CNG.79eb8cc31ded9958590135bf1f360a4d.101

I'd understand the "rest room" to be an area in which staff on break or off duty can use for recreation or personal activities. So Snowden is not cooped up in a tiny hotel room. I'm sure that he has the company of English-speaking staff screened by the FSB.

[Waiting For Everyman]

49. Interesting: "the United States does not consider Snowden a spy"

From the first paragraph after your "snip":

Barack Obama has already signaled that the United States does not consider Snowden a spy, which commits himself to refusing any sort of swap.

Any comment?