Historically speaking , is this a quick recovery ?

[surfdog]

We seemed to recover from the very mild recession that Clinton handed Bush much slower , for example , it took over two years to see positive job growth , much much slower that we saw with this very deep recession.

Compared to other recoveries , how is this one going ?

[Le Taz Hot]

1. What recovery? n/t

[surfdog]

2. Ummm...

We went from losing 700,000 jobs a month to gaining jobs.

We went from negative GDP to positive GDP.

The DOW went from 6500 to around 12,000


That recovery.

[Le Taz Hot]

7. And unemployment is at 8.8%.

You cannot have a jobless recovery. GDP doesn't mean shit if you're on week 101 of your 99 weeks and there are THOUSANDS who are being added to those ranks every day. You're LOSING jobs in the public sector. The DOW? Yeah, that 99 weeker is jumpin' up and down about the DOW. Foreclosures? Still going up and no end in sight. Education is being slashed in every state of the union and that is because the fed monies have dried up. Got monies for more wars though, don't we? How about Wall Street reforms? Those derivatives haven't gone anywhere. And where's the indictments for the people responsible for largest Grand Theft in human history? Record numbers of middle class sinking to the lower socio-economic classes. More homeless than at anytime during the Depression. The only "recovery" is the one announced by the MSM who get paid to tell you there's a recovery. The rest of us live in the real world.

[surfdog]

12. "You cannot have a jobless recovery"

There has been positive job growth for the past year ... at least.

[Joe the Revelator]

16. That's a pretty long post with only 2 facts in it.

[leeroysphitz]

10. Oh the DOW is up. Thank god. We're all rich again. n/t

[Dewey Finn]

20. Since the poster made no claim about anyone being "rich again"

your reply, charitably speaking, is silly. Maybe you believe empty sarcasm makes you look cool. It doesn't.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. The Dow is not the economy.

And this has been a very slow recovery.

Not even replacement job creation constitutes recovery. Yes, we are not bleeding 800k jobs, we need at least double to have a real impact.

[peacebird]

3. Virginia hit a record number (900k) people who applied for emergency food aid in november

I don't think we are IN a recovery yet.

Perhaps the rapid descent has slowed but that is all.....

[surfdog]

4. It's your opinion that...

things have gotten worse since Obama took office ?

[peacebird]

6. I do not blame Obama, but I also do not think that we are in any sort of healthy "recovery"

[Sherman A1]

24. Agreed

While technically in a recovery, reality on the ground tends to continue to be a bit bleak.

[SomethingFishy]

8. Depends on what "things" you are talking about

If you are talking about the economy, yes, I was doing better financially during the Bush administration. However in spite of what many here think I am no fool. Obama inherited this crap, Bush's policy's crashed the economy. I just think the Dems are doing a crappy job of cleaning it up.

[dixiegrrrrl]

17. Was that a serious question?

But, in case it was, how about instead of using vague undefined words like
"things" in recovery, you identify any sector or sectors and state why you think there is recovery in that sector.
That might help focus the responses a bit better.

For instance, what do YOU see that is recovery in the :
employment sector?
In Wages?
In Per capita income ?

[bluestate10]

5. Given that President Obama faced a second Great Depression.

I say pretty good. The red-faced purist that are panning President Obama conviently ignore the fucking mess that he inherited.

[mikekohr]

9. The President's Policies are working -graphs-

?

?

?

?



It is currently 21 straight monthes of private sector job growth. It took FDR 7 years to return emplyment to pre-depression levels. The deeper the hole the longer the climb back. The George W. Bush Great Recession/Depression had a -9% drop in GDP, 2nd only to Hoover's Great Depression.

If we want to avoid the long, painful climb back from economic FUBAR we must quit electing the assholes that are causing them in the 1st place, namely Republicans.
see: http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/history-of-recessions.html

"Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things, but their number is negligible and their number is negligible and they are stupid." -President Dwight Eisenhower-

[surfdog]

13. "It is currently 21 straight monthes of private sector job growth"

Upthread it was called a "jobless recovery"

[mikekohr]

19. That post you noted is not factual -more graphs-

?

?

States and localities have eliminated 671,000 jobs since employment peaked in August 2008" "Public" sector job creation remains the biggest drag on the overall employment issue.

President Obama Is Repeating The 80 Year Record Of Democratic Success In Job Creation. But it will not happen overnight. Some people thought his election meant rainbows and unicorns for everybody. It never works that way. Working people are the first to feel the effect of economic FUBAR, suffer the most, and enjoy relief from recovery the latest.


see also: http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/job-growth.html

[StarsInHerHair]

38. ok, if Obama really wants to be re-elected he needs to keep all those charts & graphs & SHOW

THEM all the time. Lots of people don't know of anyone who got a job yet, it hasn't built up to that level yet. FDR knew people needed something to hold onto, something real so that while they went hungry they saw that being a temporary thing. Fireside chats are required in a hopeless situation, & people have run out of hope.

OH yeah & this:

STOP INSULTING PEOPLE BY TALKING ABOUT RAINBOWS AND UNICORNS AND PONIES!

[MadHound]

14. No, historically speaking this is one of the longer recoveries. n/t

[mikekohr]

22. The George W. Bush Great Recession/Depression was America's 2nd greatest economic downturn

it is only logical that this recovery will also be longer than other less severe downturns.

see: History of Recession
A HISTORY OF RECESSION IN THE UNITED STATES 1950 TO 2008
Written by: mike kohr 2/12/2008
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/history-of-recessions.html

[coalition_unwilling]

15. This is not a classical V-shaped recovery that characterized

most recoveries from 1945-80, but more a U-shaped recovery (meaning slower and more anemic).

Does my take match your assessment?

[Yo_Mama]

18. It is excruciatingly slow, despite huge efforts to goose it.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

21. to answer your first question in a word, no.

regarding your second question:
Compared to other recoveries , how is this one going ?

I would call this a directionless recovery as in which way do we go from here?

[bhikkhu]

23. No - growth worldwide has been very slow, and there is an underlying reason

...in that the one primary engine of growth (contrary to what repugs might tell you) is natural resources. When these are cheap and abundant, growth is very fast. When these are fully utilized, growth slows. When the rate of availability of resources for consumption and production declines, then economies decline.

Now we are at more or less a plateau of resource production - which includes food. energy supplies, timber and other natural resources. Growth everywhere is constrained, and economic models which are most dependent on growth are feeling the most strain.

[Enrique]

25. no, it's very slow one

I didn't quite understand your sentence, it's wording is very convoluted, but positive job growth is not enough. We need not just positive job growth, but rapid job growth, to restore the jobs lost. It's not happening, it's stagnating.

[mikekohr]

26. Here is a graph that compares depth of recession/depression and recovery time

?

This length of this recovery is consistant to the depth of the recession and historically comparable to others, including its closest in depth, the Hoover gifted Great Depression. We lost over 8 million jobs in George W. Bush's Great Recession/Depression. It will take time to bring those jobs back.

The greatest monthly job creation of all time occured under the economic policies of Wild Bill Clinton, +236,000 per month. It would take nearly 3 years of similar record job growth just to backfill the gaping hole Bush left President Obama. But unlike President Clinton, President Obama also inherited a staggering GDP collapse of over 9%, record national deficits and debt, two wars, and state and local governmental layoffs that have accounted for over 671,000 lost jobs since 8/2008.

Bush's Great Recession may not have been technically a "Depression," but it was close and the closest thing we have seen since 1929.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mHSyEv8vBt4/S6Z6xo0qSnI/AAAAAAAAACY/p8SkoEnN5dw/s640/job+creation+by+president.jpg?

http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/job-growth.html

[Enrique]

28. that's a graph of GDP

GDP has followed the normal pattern as far as I know. It's the jobs that have been slow to come back. That gap between GDP recovery and jobs recovery is the definition of the term "jobless recovery".

[mikekohr]

30. The Impact of the Recovery Act, In a Few Easy Charts, by Jared Bernstein

?

?

-clip-
Unemployment always lags growth by at least six months, but a few months after ARRA kicked in, it stopped growing.

But that’s only half of what these simple graphs show. The other piece of information they yield is even more important. As the stimulus fades, the positive trends begin to falter: both GDP and job growth slow significantly, and unemployment stagnates at a highly elevated level.

The message of these three simple graphs is itself disarmingly simple: the stimulus worked. It prevented recession from becoming depression. It just ended too soon.

And that’s why the President’s new jobs agenda is so damn important
-end of clip-
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/the-recovery-act-worked-in-a-few-easy-charts/

[JoePhilly]

34. I think the comparisons of data pre and post Stimulus is the most compelling. nt

[Mimosa]

27. What recovery??? n/t

[Dewey Finn]

29. Please try to keep up.

Response #1 already offered up that meaningless bit of snark, and your extra two question marks really added nothing to it.

[MattBaggins]

31. Don't most experts think it will take till at least 2020?

Doesn't seem quick to me.

[ixion]

32. We are in the initial phase of a massive depression.

There has been no recovery.

[mikekohr]

33. Strongest Job Recovery In Decades is Underway

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mHSyEv8vBt4/TIKJmVIq8xI/AAAAAAAAAFI/AInWHvWVIxA/s400/New+Picture.jpg?
click to open link to graph

9 of the last 10 recessions occurred under Republican economic policy, including todays George W. Bush’s “Great Recession,” the deepest economic downturn since Hoover’s “Great Depression” of 1929. President Obama has not only halted the staggering job loss of over 780,000 per month he inherited from George W. Bush but President Obama’s “Bubble Up Economic” policies has reached positive increase in monthly job creation with unmatched speed.

Source: Chris Isidore from CNNMoney.com

The economic pain being felt today is a result of the depth of the hole that was dug by the Republican “Trickle Down” policies of the Republican Party. The nation suffered a loss of 8.4 million, or 7% of all jobs, in George W. Bush’s “Great Recession.” This compares with a loss of 3.1% of all jobs lost during George W. Bush’s first recession of March–November of 2001, and 1.9% of all jobs lost during George H.W. Bush’s recession of July 1990-March of 1991. -The deeper the hole, the longer the climb out of it- If Americans wish to avoid the pain of recovery from recession, we need to quit electing the people digging the holes.

http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-11-14T06:06:00-08:00&max-results=7

[DesMoinesDem]

35. How quick does it look to you?

[customerserviceguy]

37. Part of the problem is the definition of recovery

You like to use the economists' version, and most everybody here uses the normal peoples' version.

In answer to your question, the economists' version is not doing too well, either.