If AQ = Syrian Rebels why couldn't those be rebel chemical weapons?

[dkf]

I find it awfully suspicious that there is a chemical weapons attack as soon as the UN inspectors get there.

All we need is to get suckered into another war... Ugh.

[rdharma]

1. Because AQ doesn't = Syrian Rebels

That's why.

But I agree. We do not need to get involved in another war.

I don't buy the "false flag operation by the rebels" conspiracy theory.

[dkf]

2. Are you saying no AQ are involved or that they are with Assad?

Why am I wrong in thinking AQ is siding with the rebels?

[rdharma]

4. The enemy of my enemy is my friend......

..... at least temporarily. AQ doesn't have a voice in the Syrian National Council.

And no....... I'm not buying into the "Sarin gas attack was a false flag operation by the Syrian rebels" conspiracy theory.

[AverageJoe90]

16. Me neither.....there's really no proof.

I don't doubt that AQ is a serious problem, but in their case, it's more of a "The enemy of my rival is my partner(whether they like it or not)" situation with them. They don't really hate Assad.....they just see him as being in the way, even if the FSA does.

[leveymg]

5. It makes more sense than the only alternative explanation - Assad wants to commit suicide

If that were the case, he wouldn't have survived this long.

When the only plausible explanation is that the opposition -- which has in the past used chemical weapons -- has tried to frame the regime at the most opportune moment, then that explanation must be seriously considered and cannot be easily dismissed as "conspiracy theory."

Sorry, not many have bought into the official theory, and for good reason - it doesn't make sense.

[rdharma]

6. How is Assad comitting suicide by using chemical warfare?

He's got nothing to lose. Trapped rats often bite.

[leveymg]

7. He's ahead on points on the battlefield. As things stood before, the US and NATO were not going to

get directly involved in military operations to remove (i.e., kill) him. Now, that's up in the air and a real possibility.

The Assad regime is neither stupid nor suicidal. There's no real gain from this sort of action for them. It's a total lose-lose for them, and everyone who has any sense or objectivity can see that.

[rdharma]

8. You're saying that Assad had the upper hand.....with rebels knocking on the gates of Damascus?

Sorry...... I don't buy that.

This was Assad's "hail Mary" play.

[leveymg]

9. He might as well have just handed the ball to the opposing team on his own 20 yard-line in that

case.

I don't think so.

This war stretches back to 1976, and the Ba'ath won the previous games. So, they aren't giving up.

[rdharma]

11. So, they aren't giving up. As this chemical attack by govt. forces proves.

Assad evidently thought it was worth the gamble.

[leveymg]

14. No. If Assad wanted to use chemical munitions, they would have targeted and released differently.

That's yet another reason to conclude this wasn't the regime that did this. There are plenty of militarily meaningful targets in the region - if Assad wanted to go out in blaze of glory, it wouldn't have been some suburban Damascus neighborhood that was targeted.

It would be like Obama deciding to nuke Rockville, MD - it just wouldn't happen that way.

[rdharma]

20. No. This is exactly where the govt. would target such an attack.

Where else do you think they would target that would be of higher priority?

[Comrade Grumpy]

28. You are seriously misreading the military situation in Syria.

The regime is on the offensive. It's rolled the rebels up in Qusayr and Homs, and is now pushing them out of the Damascus countryside, where they've been for a year or so. If anyone is desperate, it's the rebels.

[Comrade Grumpy]

26. The rebels have been in the Damascus suburbs for a year. He's cleaning them up now.

After impressive regime victories in Qusayr and Homs.

[rdharma]

29. He's using chemical weapons to halt the further advance in Damascus

I don't know where you're getting your information. But it is incorrect and outdated.

[AverageJoe90]

13. unfortunately, you are dead wrong on this: Assad IS desperate.

And you are quite wrong in insisting that he wouldn't have survived this long.....because he's got friends amongst the criminal TPTB factions of the Russian gov't, who've been arming him for some time. Believe me when I say that I don't trust the Islamists, and that I suspect that the TPTB BushCo factions of our own government may very well have helped the Islamists. But the majority of the rebels are still genuine FSA and not these fake-ass Islamists and AQ people passing themselves off as such.....despite what you hear on RT and most Western media sources(especially the right-wingers). And Assad himself is a puppet of TPTB. So was his father, too.......

[leveymg]

17. Sorry. He's not desperate in this way. This isn't end-game - not close. If it were, he'd have

targeted troop concentrations and bases and installations inside Syria, in Turkey and Jordan.

This doesn't get him even the satisfaction of revenge.

This was some half-assed AQ type mass terror operation carried out with the hope the Obama Administration is as stupid as its predecessor and can be drawn into yet another war where we're going to get chopped up again. No, thank you.

[AverageJoe90]

21. I didn't say anything about an "end game".

But he still is getting desperate:

If it were, he'd have

targeted troop concentrations and bases and installations inside Syria, in Turkey and Jordan.

But he hasn't. He's gone after civilians, too.....of course, I don't deny that the AQ guys seem to have done the same, but it shouldn't be used to exonerate Al-Assad in either case, because the gov't forces have done much of what they have.

[rdharma]

22. The troop concentrations that are most threatening..... are the ones entering Damascus.

Do you really think he would hit targets in Turkey or Jordan.

Sorry..... but with that statement you've lost all credibility.

[leveymg]

24. Use of nerve gas in your own backyard makes no military sense; it makes great sense to do

that, however, if you're desperately trying to arouse "humanitarian intervention."

If there were lots and lots of rebel casualties from this attack, military use might be more plausible. But, that doesn't seem to have been the case.

[dkf]

30. If I was AQ and trying to strategize this is exactly what I would do.

Pretty much a no-brainer.

It makes zero sense for Assad to use CMs at this time, so much sense for AQ to lure us into yet another Middle East war.

And I think this plays into the hands of the right wing who also want to engage in Syria.

It's a huge trap.

[Comrade Grumpy]

25. The Syrian regime is not desperate; it is winning. It's the rebels who are desperate.

It has pushed the rebels out of Qusayr and Homs, securing key ground for the regime.

It is busily pushing the rebels out of the Damascus suburbs, where they've been for a year. That's the very offensive in which this attack has occurred.

Not saying that the regime is winning everywhere, but it is winning overall.

All the rest of what you wrote is irrelevant to the matter at hand.

[HooptieWagon]

3. Who the hell knows?

There are several rebel groups. AQ probably associated with a few. The chemical weapons are a "he said/he said" situation. We the public don't know. Possible even the investigators on scene aren't positive. Its likely both sides possess and have used chemical weapons.
IMO, there is no "win" for the US. Whichever side prevails, if they don't completely wipe eachother out, is not going to be a US ally. Getting involved likely also drags the Russians in, and becomes another ME quagmire. US should tread VERY carefully....at most playing a very limited role as part of a multi-national effort that the US isn't leading.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

10. Likely the gov't

1. The stuff worked, for the most part. That means it was well-made and the persons using it knew what they were doing.
2. The parts were numbered. That means they were manufactured to a standard, and there were likely lots of them. A DIY rocket made by the rebels would have no need to be numbered.

See this post for an objective assessment of the munitions: http://rogueadventurer.com/2013/08/25/preliminary-analysis-of-alleged-cw-munitions-used-in-syria/

Note that he doesn't even post an opinion on whether CW was used, or which side fired these weapons. The above two conclusions are entirely my own, based on this and a few other sources.
Also, note that it takes some expertise to handle this stuff and even more, to deliver it by rocket. It's one thing to explode something on the ground with a buncha bad stuff in it, but it takes a different level to be able to arm a rocket and fire it with that bad stuff in it and not be in danger of having it explode on you right there and take you out instead. Governments have that kind of capacity.

The why is a good question. There's been some stuff floatin around about a new unit of US-trained commandos moving in that Assad wanted to take out, but who knows, really. I'm going with the simple Machiavellian idea that no one would expect him to use the stuff when the UN inspectors are there, so of course that's the perfect time to do it. Given the complexity of dealing with disposing this stuff, it can be seen as a warning that he has it and that if we go in we'd need to take care of it. Unlike Saddam, he ain't playin.
He doesn't have nuclear, so maybe he figures this is the next best deterrent.

[leveymg]

18. If the regime were going to use its CBW stockpile, it wouldn't waste it on a suburban neighborhood

You guys are making less and less sense.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

19. Who's you guys? n/t

[dkf]

31. It could even be Assad weapons, but appropriated by AQ or rebel factions.

Or even someone double crossing from within.

Assad would have to be the stupidest sob to ever live to have ordered use of these now. Strains credibility.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

32. They would have to know a lot to be able to use stolen Assad CW,

on a rocket no less.
You just aren't born knowing how to arm a rocket with CW and launch it with only minimal danger to yourself. So, while on the surface it does look nuts, none of the actual evidence points to anyone other than Assad.

[dkf]

33. Well if you believe AQ was able to commandeer and fly 4 huge planes into buildings...

Or am I supposed to believe that is a lie?

[leveymg]

35. That's not what the other poster was saying. The whole munition was likely stolen,

delivery system,and all. That would have to be in order to make a compelling false flag, wouldn't it?

[Benton D Struckcheon]

37. Stop looking for zebras. Horses are more likely by far. n/t

[leveymg]

39. I thought we all wanted ponies, here?

[kelliekat44]

12. It doesn't make sense for the chemical weapons to be Assad's. He doesn't need them to win.

Who does this benefit? A radio report today said that chemical weapons were found stashed in rebel tunnels in the areas where all those people were killed. I Obama doesn't allow the hawks to push him into something that we all be sorry for.

[David__77]

15. All we DO know is that al Queda = "rebels."

That's what we know. We don't know if banned weapons were used and we don't know who used them. The the UN team will not be able to find this out either. There will be no evidence of anything that isn't tainted by a bad chain of custody. Anyone can fabricate evidence.

I say that the US must resolutely stay out.

[rdharma]

23. The US must stay out...... we agree on that.

That AQ=rebels........ no. That's not the case.

That the rebels employed chemical weapons to draw us into the conflict. No. That is also false.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

27. Another objective assessment

Once again the author comes to no conclusions. But I note this excerpt:

What's extremely interesting about these devices is they match with devices previously recorded in the conflict, reportedly launched by government forces, with it's first appearance in Daraya, south-west Damascus on January 4th.

Link: http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/are-these-munitions-used-in-todays.html

[leveymg]

34. So is this rejoiner, from the same thread at the other blog you linked.

Reply
Rune24 August 2013 00:15

Dan Kaszeta,https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta ,a former White House employee and expert on CBRN warfare doubts that it's sarin or any other nerve gas.

He also compares the shown effects with other types of gases. The conclusion is that the substance is unknown which makes this look like a false flag op.

pdf
http://strongpointsecurity.co.uk/site/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/If-not-Sarin_then-what.pdf
Reply

[Benton D Struckcheon]

36. Speculative

The physical evidence - as shown in the blog - points to munitions that are already known government munitions. The weight of the evidence is not on your side. Sorry.

[leveymg]

38. Look who's talking.

You aren't an authority on the subject. The weight of evidence, as well as the larger circumstances, weigh heavily against you. The burden is on the accuser in the absence of solid evidence from verifiable sources, of which there do not appear to be any as yet. Sorry.

Nice attempt at spin on your part, though - when firing off BS on the fly, you should try canting the vanes a bit for a stabilizing effect.