Why It Still Feels Like Recession To 95% Of America

[xchrom]

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-it-still-feels-like-a-recession-to-95-of-america-2013-8

If you want to claim the 2008 recession ended, you have to find a metric that reflects "growth." For instance, gross domestic product (GDP), which has expanded since 2009.



But as Lance Roberts, Gordon T. Long and I discuss in Is the US in a Recession?(43 min. video, 52 slides), this metric of "growth" is suspect on a number of counts. For example, does this chart of full-time employees relative to the population look expansionary?



Or how about this chart of median household income, which adjusted for inflation isdown 7.2%?



Or how about real personal income less government personal transfers on a 5-year basis (the red line)? Notice that the red line only popped briefly above 0% into "growth" in late 2012 as those who could declared income in 2012 before the 1013 tax increases kicked in.

[Safetykitten]

1. Stop telling the truth!

[xchrom]

2. Workers Of America Are Getting Screwed

http://www.businessinsider.com/workers-of-america-are-getting-screwed-2013-8



The good news this Labor Day: Jobs are returning. The bad news this Labor Day: Most of them pay lousy wages and low if non-existent benefits.

The trend toward lousy wages began before the Great Recession. According to a new report from the Economic Policy Institute, weak wage growth between 2000 and 2007, combined with wage losses for most workers since then, means that the bottom 60 percent of working Americans are earning less now than thirteen years ago.

This is also part of the explanation for why the percent of Americans living below the poverty line has been increasing even as the economy has started to recover — from 12.3 percent in 2006 to around 14 percent this year. More than 35 million Americans now live below the poverty line.

Many of them have jobs. The problem is these jobs just don’t pay enough to lift their families out of poverty.



Read more: http://robertreich.org/post/59342894595#ixzz2dAO8BZmm

[fasttense]

3. It seems capitalism is real good at creating real crappy jobs.

They are everywhere. Jobs that pay so little, you will be lucky to afford the gas you use up getting to work.

[chervilant]

4. Oh, but jobs are being created!

Houses are being bought!

Oh, wait...it's so easy to make these misleading assertions, isn't it? Truth is:

~Job creation hasn't caught up with the jobs lost since 2008, and too many of those jobs 'created' are part-time and/or minimum wage, service industry "positions."

~Our industrious young people are graduating from high schools, trade schools and colleges with no job prospects -- over half are un- or under-employed.

~Banks and uber wealthy investors are buying huge numbers of foreclosed houses, and will be our next round of slum lords.

Recovery, my fat ass!

[LuvNewcastle]

5. If you don't have a solid full-time job and you can only afford necessities,

you are in a recession. There are a whole lot of us, and everybody knows it. Nobody believes the government's bullshit about the recession being over. I guess Obama et al. think that if they keep saying the recession is over, we'll believe it. There aren't enough movies, video games, or drugs to take us that far from reality.

[Skittles]

39. and those of us with solid full time jobs (or any job)

seem to be working more and more for less and less - every year it seems like the 1% takes more

[Mnemosyne]

6. They are not talking about us, when claiming recession is over. As during the * regime, they are

speaking to their cronies. We do not count or figure into their claims at all.

Lying liars.

[truedelphi]

49. And now the Lying Liars are doing exactly as the Lying Liars before them did -

Invent a new war to take our mind away from our "petty problems."

I can't wait to see Bombardier Obama on a nuclear carrier, in front of a banner proudly proclaiming "Syrian Mission Accomplished!"

[hobbit709]

7. "Feels like" hell! It still IS a recession to most people

[WCLinolVir]

8. I used to think of my garden as a hobby, now it's a vital necessity.

As prices go up and up. This year I bought a canner and have been devoting resources to that for the winter. I am amazed at what planning can add to our resources. This year I am doing a winter garden with hoops. The learning curve was not cheap! Even when buying stuff at half off and used equipment.

[AllyCat]

24. We have built make-shift cold frames from someone's cast off storm windows.

Plan on growing things well after the snow falls. This is the first year we have grown enough to preserve for the winter. It will be a necessity for us soon and we are trying to practice, learn, and plan now.

[WCLinolVir]

33. Same here. Do you live in Virginia?

[AllyCat]

38. Ha ha!

Wisconsin. But I planted garlic in December and had my best crop ever. The climate has changed.

[WCLinolVir]

53. I wondered if it was truly a small world as my neighbor is also building a greenhouse.

From old windows. Wisconsin would be a challenge for me. I was born in California. I am putting in my brassicas- bp's, kohlrabi, broccoli, but am a little concerned as the temp is heading to 90 again. I don't think it's a problem as it won't be 80 when they mature-I hope. But I have never grown these before. My pumpkins are getting ready to flower.
Garlic in Dec. Did you have a hoop over them? When did you harvest? Have yet to grow garlic.

[AllyCat]

56. I usually plant the cloves in September, but due to house project, was late

But we had a really warm fall. Early December we saw 70 degree days for a week. So I planted them and then put the cold frame over them. When the snow melts in March...there are all the little plants! Harvest in July when it was finally hot enough to dry out the greens. Just finished 2.5 weeks curing on the front screen porch. Ready to eat. Garlic is really rewarding. In the midwest, we put it in around September, let some little greens come up before the snow flies (without a cold frame--I only used it because it was so late). Not sure how you would do that in VA. It tolerates a LOT of cold, even deep freeze here in Wisco, as long as it gets established for a month or two first.

[WCLinolVir]

58. Great. I will definitely do some garlic.

I could probably plant out in October. I just need some more planting beds! I have been seeing a lot of caterpillars lately. A bunch of black swallowtail caterpillars have taken over my parsley. I am down to one plant and will get another so they have enough to eat. Yesterday I found a giant leopard moth, black wooly. Very cute.

[AllyCat]

59. Garlic is particularly resistant to pests and protects many of your other plants.

It just needs a sandy soil. I mix sand, compost, and I think I put wood ash, but can't remember exactly. There are some good videos on youtube from garlic enthusiasts that are really helpful. You just pull the cloves apart and put them in the ground about 4-6 inches, pointy end up. That's it. If you plant a hardneck variety, you get beautiful scapes in the early summer that I use to make garlic scape pesto. I've even planted the seeds from the flower head on the scape and they grow nicely too.

[WCLinolVir]

60. Thank you.

It is always helpful to have input from someone who has done it before.

[nxylas]

9. Question from an economics-challenged DUer

I have...a friend who is a complete dunce when it comes to economics and, um, my friend would like to know the difference between nominal growth and real growth. Could you put it in idiot-proof terms for m...I mean him?

[Lucky Luciano]

23. Nominal is actual (dollar in this case) growth. Real is adjusted for inflation.

Real growth might be benchmarked, for example, based on the purchasing power of a dollar in the year 2000 so as to normalize everything.

[hfojvt]

35. nominal looks at a number

like $10.

"real" looks at - what that $10 would buy. $10 in 1970 buys more than $10 in 1990 which buys more than $10 in 2010.

So making $10 an hour in 1970 is not the same as making $10 in 1990. And even beyond that an average person might say "my income has gone up because I made $10.69 an hour in 2002 and I made $14.34 an hour last year." But the $14.34 is not the same measure as what the $10.69 was - those are nominal dollars, not real dollars.

And there are many ways to convert from nominal to real. Depending on the baseline. I could convert 2012 dollars to 2002 dollars. In which case $14.34 becomes $11.24.

Or I could convert 2002 dollars to 2012 dollars. In which case $10.69 becomes $13.64.

Or I could convert both values to, say, 2000 dollars. In which case $10.69 becomes $10.23 and $14.34 becomes $10.76.

So I could have any number of baselines, which would be noted as 2002 = 100, or 2012 = 100 or 2000 = 100, in the three examples I gave.

But no matter what baseline I use, my real wages only went up 5.1% whereas my nominal wages went up by 34%.

I get those numbers from the BLS http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=100&year1=2002&year2=2012

[cantbeserious]

10. Thank You For Sharing

eom

[SmittynMo]

11. It IS a recession, still

My troubles started in 2007, being laid off due to a reorg. They continued, settling for a job at a pay scale much less than I was making. I eventually move on to a contract position at a much higher rate of pay, but nothing firm. No benefits, no full time work. Contracts can last 1-18 months. Then you're screwed, looking again. It may take months to find something. Well, this vicious cycle has not stopped. The full time jobs are pretty much gone, only leaving contract positions. The rate of pay has also gone down. So do I feel we're in a recession? You damn right I do. And I don't see anything being done to fix all the wrong the Bush administration has done to this country.

To make matters worse, I was told of all the new jobs created in the past 3 years, 85% of them are part time. You don't believe me? Do a search on indeed for part time jobs. So don't believe this crap that we're creating new jobs and the economy is getting better. It really isn't.

[spanone]

12. republicans have no interest in bolstering an economy with a democratic President at the helm

they'd rather see americans starve and go homeless

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

26. You're so wrong about that.

Republicans have no interest in bolstering an economy with a Democratic or Republican President at the helm.


You're spot on with your second part.

[Johonny]

32. I think they are interested , but they don't know how to

the economy is growing as the charts show it just isn't going into the pockets of the vast majority of Americans. That is just what Republicans want. They want a growing economy AND the average American to starve and go homeless. This is the perfect economy for Republicans and yet they seem so unhappy

[WCLinolVir]

34. That is how they keep propping up a bogeyman.

They are probably secretly thrilled. But don't expect rational behavior from pathological people. These people aren't well.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

13. K&R. The truth is important.

[bigwillq]

14. K and R (nt)

[xchrom]

15. ...

[bigwillq]

27. ....

[marmar]

16. k/r

[Puzzledtraveller]

17. k&r

I started as a caseworker in 2009, SNAP and Medicaid. It still looks like 2009 most days in my office.

[Civilization2]

18. Growth is the WRONG measure,. when you have enough you don't need more.

The idea of endless growth on a planet with finite resources is silly on it's face,. and yet this is the capitalist model that all our systems are based. Unlimited endless growth? Simply not a possibility,. we need to measure other indicators to find useful truths besides capitalist "growth".

[TampaAnimusVortex]

28. Resources are a function of technology.

A household with reasonable molecular manufacturing capability (nanotechnology) and an input of energy (solar is fine) is self sustaining. It's perfectly capable of taking whatever atoms it has in it's supply and rearranging them into whatever is needed - food, housing, transportation, etc...

It's also perfectly capable of recycling those atoms with 100% efficiency into whatever new forms that are needed, so you can eliminate all waste and pollution at the same time.

This future is about 40 or 50 years out. This household will be able to provide everything it wants or needs for itself for pretty much no costs. The only thing that would cost anything in that world would probably be rare elements, information (media, new product designs, art, etc...), and maybe access to the web (or its future equivalent) unless that isn't also provided for free at that point as well.

Beyond that... we have all of space to start expanding into, which nanotechnology will also enable in a cheap efficient manner. The world will change more over the next 3 or 4 decades then it has over the last 3 or 4 centuries due to exponentially accelerating technology curves.

[link]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Raymond_Kurzweil#2029[/link]

[Civilization2]

29. Plants grow right out of the ground, converting molecules into whatever we need using solar now!

Why the need for a techno fix,. most of what we need is already provided,. it is the sill war-mongers and corporate capitalists that cause all the strife,. and take up all the useful resources for needless destruction.

I can see the rise of DIY fabrication machines like 3d printers being used more extensively, however I hope mostly for small devices like phones and palmtop computers,. most of our real needs are readily provided for with the ancient 'tech' of seeds, sun, and dirt.

[TampaAnimusVortex]

37. Because that techno fix does a lot more...

It does more than just provide goods like TVs, house, and cars... it provides medical services that cures cancers, heart disease, and yes - ageing itself. With nanotechnology, mankind will no longer settle for limited lifespans or have to watch their loved ones decay and die. Yes, even death will fall this century.

You don’t approve?

Tell that mother who's child is dying of some horribly painful disease that death is natural and they should just accept it.

Tell that husband who has to watch his loving wife of 50 years disintegrates with cancer how death is just part of life and deal with it.

Mankind is about to make a huge leap over the next 50 to 100 years - not just in cute little parlour tricks like better cell phones or bigger televisions. We are about to master our genetic destiny, grasp the helm of our evolution, merge with our machines, and fly off this little rock out into the universe.

Asking "Why the techno fix?" shows a serious misunderstanding on your part about what is coming soon. I suggest you read up on the concept of the technological singularity.

[Civilization2]

43. Ah yes, the soon to come,. It is like the bar sign "FREE BEER!", with the small print "tomorrow",. .

Tomorrow never comes.

Where are these machine intelligence today? Do we see any benefits from this growing tech. now? Or is it all in the "future"?

It is nice that you have a positive view of future events, however what about now, life in the present? Should we not use the last of the planet's fossil fuels to develop sustainable energy systems for our children and their future,. or should we just hope some geek builds us an AI, that will happen to be benevolent, and also solve all out troubles?

We have all the tech we need to live fulfilling lives now,. only some greedy few with sociopathic tendencies have taken control and are wrecking havoc for personal short term gain.

Sure tech makes some advances, however none of it has achieved an end to war, greed, poverty, or all the human suffering that comes with these things. Hoping for endless life tech truly misses the point, it is not about quantity it is about quality. Children are the future legacy, not some reanimated endless life sci-fi nightmare.

[TampaAnimusVortex]

54. Are you serious?

An end to war, greed, poverty, and suffering can only come when everyone has everything they want. Begging people to change their nature isn’t going to work. Technology on the other hand advances at an ever increasing pace. When you have the tools to be independent, your free. It's always been about control of resources. From our distant ape like ancestors fighting over the water hole on the plains of Africa, it was about controlling the resources.

Now, with nanotech - each person will be able to stand alone and produce not only all they need... but all they WANT as well!.

Nanotech will enable the produce of food and recycling of your waste into new food with 100% efficiency. Sure you say nature does that as well, but nanotech can do it not with 100 acres and 3 months, but with a desktop appliance in your house in 5 minutes.

Nanotech can cure your diseases and keep your in a perfect unaging body.

It can create any material shape or form on command and turn around and destroy and recycle it into something new instantly when asked.

Or... you can keep begging the powers that be to change their behaviour.... you can try and change human nature. Good luck with that!

Watch the video below... see how close it really is.

[Civilization2]

55. Are you dreaming? Little plastic parts are not going to rebuild the collapsing biosphere.

They are not going to get "everyone.. .everything they want",. this is a strange materialistic dream, that does not even begin to address a plethora of human issues. Sorry, I just don't see the need for more corporate controlled tech. that ignores the natural world we are a part of and further damages the systems we are embedded inside.

"keep begging the powers that be"? No, who said anything about begging anyone, we are working for the things we want to see in the world now. Permaculture, is a simple and appropriate tech. it does not require "electron microscopes" or "super speed lasers". Dirt, seeds, water, and sunlight are amazing complex tech that we already have. Why reinvent the world? There is nothing wrong with it! We only need to adjust people perceptions away from the corporate nightmare and towards the bright green future.

Far from begging, or hoping for some future tech 40, years down the line,. we simply see that what we truly need is already here, and utilize it to fulfill our lives today. The future is now.

[TampaAnimusVortex]

57. No - everything we need isnt here yet...

Ask the mother who watches their little child suffering on a doctors table in agony with cancer if they can think of anything they would like...

Ask the husband as he watches his wife of 50 years wither under the effects of alzheimer's if hes ok with the "natural world".

Ask the 97 year old wife who watches her similarly aged husband writhe on the floor in agony as hes fallen and broken a hip from being so frail if shes wouldn't like any of her or her husband's youthful vigor and resilience back.

You want the natural world? The natural world for man is a cave, a slab of meat, and a short brutish life full of pain and anguish.

You want technology? Or do you just want the technology your familiar with... that you just happened to have had the accidental good fortune to have grown up with? Why is THAT the optimal level? Why not 100 years ago the optimal level? Why not 100 years from now? What you consider an optimal level has more to say about your personal bias then anything else.

[PowerToThePeople]

41. This is reality

Capitalism (growth capitalism) is an unstable system when dealing with finite resources.

The only way for Capitalism to not destroy the planet and humanity is for the capitalist's to take year after year losses in order to stabilize the world and ecosystem. Then, secondly, they must accept that they can only "break even" to continue to have the planet and it's peoples survive. Breaking even should not be a big issue when you have enough to never have a care in your life, but.... Well, they are fucking greedy bastards.

[summer-hazz]

47. I agree... we cannot

sustain this environment.. I am not sure how this will end,

but i'm pretty sure it does not look good for us on the low end of the chart!

Something has to give.

[bluedeathray]

19. Because 95% of Americans

Don't have substantial stock portfolios?

Corporate growth is great! Due to cost cutting here. And jobs leaving altogether.

Oh, and politicians are doing well too...

[Snake Plissken]

20. Because 95 % of Americans are irrelevant

what is there one, maybe two people in Washington who actually care about the 95 %?

[KG]

21. K+R

[reformist2]

22. We need a New New Deal. That is, a new economic structure that works for working people.

It saddens me that Obama is becoming an apologist for the status quo - that is, a banking-centered economy that concentrates wealth in the center, and starves anyone who isn't in the financial sector.

[dotymed]

25. I once heard

(maybe here?) that recession is when your neighbor loses his/her job. depression is when you lose yours..

America will only change when we make it happen.

In the mean time, TPTB are making sure they are protected. Unless we change this capitalistic nightmare soon, we are all going to be criminals.

The NSA is very helpful in making that a reality.

Soon there will be "thought crimes."

1984 is near...I was reading my old copy's rear cover description yesterday. (at least a 40 y.o. version). It states that the book is not a nightmare vision of extreme Stalinism, it is a description of where our world is currently headed... Orwell wrote this in the '30's.

[whoiswithme]

30. In the long run there is no other way

We, as a society, have created this global economy. Things like strong unions and government regulations are only useful in the short term against wage differences. How can we support paying people in this country $30/hr when other parts of the world are working for a buck or two a day? So workers form a strong union and save their jobs, but if the company can't product a profit or a quality good at an acceptable price, it goes out of business. So those are only short term fixes. We can change the tax code, but the fact is that if our economy falters and we are unable to sell our debt we have a HUGE problem domestically that can cause a major recession.

What is the long term fix??

I'm afraid it's learning how to make do with less. I am aggressively paying down debt and learning how to grow and can vegetables. We are preparing to be ready to go back to one income if need be. I'm not even convinced it would be a huge problem. It would cut our car and gas bill a lot, we wouldn't need to pay $20k/year for daycare, we wouldn't spend as much on food.

I wish I felt differently. I don't even think it matters who is the president or who runs the federal reserve, we can't keep spending money the way we have over the last 20 years without growing our economy also.

[dickthegrouch]

31. What did we expect?

For the entire 30 years I've been a worker there have been layoffs and reductions in force. The job hasn't changed, those who are still working have to be even more efficient and more focussed to get the same amount of work performed by one as used to be done by three.
The production engineers have been stellar at automating factories and reducing the need for (relatively) unskilled labor.

However, none of our brilliant planners and bosses predicted the overall reduction in jobs this would produce. I grew up hearing that the goal was a life of leisure and humanitarian pursuits. The only picture I have of a boss is someone with his (sorry ladies, they were always men) feet on the desk while the workplace hums along with no crises, panics or distractions.

Reality hits and they still have no plans or answers. It's infuriating.

(Full disclosure, I've just crossed three months out of work).

[Skittles]

40. I hear you dickthegrouch

I've worked under a layoff culture for decades --- seen dozens of coworkers walked out and replaced by less experiences cheap offshore folk - now they have open contempt for American workers - we are seen as a liability....every year we work harder and harder for less

[leftstreet]

36. DURec

[progressoid]

42. But, but, but....how can this be?

Every month some good DUer will post how great the recovery is!!11!

[Egalitarian Thug]

44. K&R As always. Keep getting it out there, all we have on our side is the truth. n/t

[JNelson6563]

45. And yet

to my astonishment it seems few have any understanding of being poor. So many think to be poor means to not have as much discretionary spending as one would like.

I marvel at it, truly.

Julie

[hotrod0808]

46. In my state

that feeling just got worse. The top earners just got a sizable tax break that will be offset by an increase on the state sales tax. It is feudalism at it's finest in The Buckeye State, folks.

[Liberal_in_LA]

48. kick

[jtuck004]

50. It's the Fukushima of economic recoveries. n/t

[Spitfire of ATJ]

51. During the Cold War the Soviets used to talk about "capitalist exploitation of the workers"...

It was considered propaganda because capitalists created the Middle Class to claim it improved the quality of life.

Now with the Cold War over the capitalists decided they don't need a Middle Class anymore and became what the Soviets claimed they were.

[blkmusclmachine]

52. You know what they call the 99% In DC?

Sheeple.

Completely useless and harmless, if left to fight amongst themselves for the stale crumbs