Kerry's claim of 1429 Syrian deaths is criticized

[David Krout]

Anthony Cordesman, a former senior defense official who’s now with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, took aim at the death toll discrepancies in an essay published Sunday.

He criticized Kerry as being “sandbagged into using an absurdly over-precise number” of 1,429, and noted that the number didn’t agree with either the British assessment of “at least 350 fatalities” or other Syrian opposition sources, namely the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has confirmed 502 dead, including about 100 children and "tens" of rebel fighters, and has demanded that Kerry provide the names of the victims included in the U.S. tally.

“President Obama was then forced to round off the number at ‘well over 1,000 people’ – creating a mix of contradictions over the most basic facts,” Cordesman wrote. He added that the blunder was reminiscent of “the mistakes the U.S. made in preparing Secretary (Colin) Powell’s speech to the U.N. on Iraq in 2003.”

An unclassified version of a French intelligence report on Syria that was released Monday hardly cleared things up; France confirmed only 281 fatalities, though it more broadly agreed with the United States that the regime had used chemical weapons in the Aug. 21 attack.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/09/02/201027/to-some-us-case-for-syrian-gas.html#storylink=cpy

[last1standing]

1. Kerry has made a fool of himself over this issue.

Being caught inflating numbers and trying to frighten Congressional Democrats by calling this our "Munich moment" has left Kerry with little moral standing on Syria at this point. I doubt that our allies or other nations believe much of what he says after this either.

[Junkdrawer]

2. His agenda is showing, for sure. n/t

[liberalhistorian]

18. Kerry has made a fool of himself

over a LOT of issues, this is, by no means at all, the first time. I was never that thrilled with the idea of him as SOS in the first place, and that is being rapidly borne out.

[G_j]

3. That's absurd

what a joke..

[jsr]

4. Minor detail. Stop quibbling. Let freedom reign.

[ProSense]

5. That is not what France reported in full.

An unclassified version of a French intelligence report on Syria that was released Monday hardly cleared things up; France confirmed only 281 fatalities, though it more broadly agreed with the United States that the regime had used chemical weapons in the Aug. 21 attack.

France reported at least 281 deaths, and stated that there was evidence confirming about 1,500 deaths.

France releases new, 'undeniable' evidence against Syria

<...>

It accused the Syrian government of using "extremely lethal" chemical weapons -- including those containing the deadly nerve agent sarin -- on several occasions to sow "terror" among civilian populations.

"These proven attacks have shown that the forces of Bashar Assad's regime adapt their tactics and the munitions in their stocks with the aim of causing terror within the civilian population," the French report said.

"The past events and the simultaneous and massive use of chemical weapons on the night of 21 August 2013 in the eastern suburb of Damascus thus confirm that the Syrian regime has deliberately crossed a line. Our services have information, from a [French] national source, leading us to believe that other actions of this nature could still be carried out."

The attack on was a "massive and coordinated use of chemical agents against the civilian population," it alleged, adding that evidence appeared to confirm an estimated 1,500 deaths.

- more -

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-france-evidence-syria-20130902,0,1163653.story

[David Krout]

8. If evidence "appears to confirm 1500", why didn't France confirm 1500?

Is it because they have doubts about it? Why 281?

[ProSense]

13. So you're rejecting that part of the report?

France is stating that Assad did it, and the 281 figure is based on an initial assessment. The additional assessment confirmed about 1,500 deaths.

That is what France reported.

[David Krout]

16. Woah! Hold on, you went from "appeared to confirmed," to "confirmed"

Which is it?

You are now contradicting the LA Times article that you touted first. Not good.

You should email the LA Times' writer and tell him/her to delete "appears to", since you don't like that part.

[ProSense]

17. "adding that evidence appeared to confirm an estimated 1,500 deaths. "

Are you rejecting that part of the report?

You seem to want to cherry pick the number that suits your narrative, but the fact is that France stated that its assessment confirmed about 1,500 deaths.

It said that based on videos, French intelligence had counted at least 281 dead but that reports of up to 1,500 killed were consistent with such heavy use of chemical weapons.

http://news.yahoo.com/france-says-least-281-killed-syria-chemical-attack-171455646.html

You want to dismiss the second number.

[blm]

19. Baloney - 281 confirmed means officially confirmed and identified.

Those are terms of process.

It's the same reason that during US disasters it takes awhile for the OFFICIAL number to be known.

[sabrina 1]

27. Provide the names. These are human beings, it is disgusting to see such a tragedy used for political

purposes. Playing with numbers on an issue that involves the lives of human beings is simply grotesque. Every number they throw out should have a name attached to it.

And more than anything else, to throw out numbers with no names attached, in order to drum up outrage that would lead to the US doing what it has long wanted to do, destroys the whole idea that 'WE CARE'.

People who actually care about human lives talk about human lives, NOT ABOUT STATISTICS.

Who were these people? Surely at least some of them have a name?

Shame on the US!! The world opposes this including a majority of the Syrian people.

At least tell the truth about why we are so desperate to go there with our 'humanitarian bombs'. It would eliminate the need to lie. And people know the truth anyhow so the lies are a waste of time.

[ProSense]

28. At least

"Provide the names. These are human beings, it is disgusting to see such a tragedy used for political purposes. Playing with numbers on an issue that involves the lives of human beings is simply grotesque. Every number they throw out should have a name attached to it."

...you can admit that Assad launching a chemical attack that killed people is a "tragedy."

I mean, that's the outrage. The number of actual deaths will be confirmed.

[sabrina 1]

30. Anyone launching an attack on kids, clusterbombing them, White Phosphorousing them, bombing them,

shooting them, is more than a tragedy, it is that AND it is a war crime. There is no preferred way to kill kids, ALL the killing that has taken place of ME Children is a huge tragedy and a horrendous war crime.

Did Assad do this? Apparently there is grave doubt about the US claims since they have provided no evidence to anyone, even to poor Cameron who did his best to convince Parliament but didn't have enough evidence to do so.

I see several Democrats now saying they haven't seen evidence of who was responsible and around the world in nearly every country, there are requests for irrefutable evidence as to who did this.

We have a system of International Law that can deal with these crimes. IF there is evidence, then why is the US unwilling to provide and take the matter to the Hague where all the evidence can be laid out for the world to see?

And when will we be holding our own War Crimiinals accountable?

[ProSense]

31. "Did Assad do this?"

"Did Assad do this? Apparently there is grave doubt about the US claims since they have provided no evidence to anyone, even to poor Cameron who did his best to convince Parliament but didn't have enough evidence to do so."

France seems to believe he did.

France releases new, 'undeniable' evidence against Syria

<...>

It accused the Syrian government of using "extremely lethal" chemical weapons -- including those containing the deadly nerve agent sarin -- on several occasions to sow "terror" among civilian populations.

"These proven attacks have shown that the forces of Bashar Assad's regime adapt their tactics and the munitions in their stocks with the aim of causing terror within the civilian population," the French report said.

"The past events and the simultaneous and massive use of chemical weapons on the night of 21 August 2013 in the eastern suburb of Damascus thus confirm that the Syrian regime has deliberately crossed a line. Our services have information, from a (French) national source, leading us to believe that other actions of this nature could still be carried out."

The attack on was a "massive and coordinated use of chemical agents against the civilian population," it alleged, adding that evidence appeared to confirm an estimated 1,500 deaths.

- more -

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-france-evidence-syria-20130902,0,1163653.story

[sabrina 1]

32. So how does the US address the world wide charges of hypocrisy on matters of War Crimes?

So, what should be done about OUR War criminals, you didn't address that. This is a very important aspect of all this. The world is pointing out that the US has exonerated their own War Criminals so has not Moral Authority on claiming to care about War Crimes.

How do we fix this world wide opposition to the US on the question of its Moral Authority now regarding these matters?

And France?? Of course France is on board with this. Maybe you know why? The rest of the world does.

France has zero credibility on Syria or Libya.

[ProSense]

36. "France has zero credibility on Syria or Libya."

Did you miss that the OP is based on a report by France?

[treestar]

6. Why quibble over the exact number?

Just be thankful it wasn't greater. And the Assad did not have more of the weapons.

It could happen again, if he has more of them.

[David Krout]

9. You assume Assad did it

Slick.

And if the number is not important, why does Kerry emphasize it?

[treestar]

12. That's pretty well established

that Assad did it.

Kerry is using the number he thinks is right.

Surely it killed some people. It is insane to think it didn't happen, didn't kill people, doesn't have the potential in future to kill a lot of people - that's why there is a UN Convention against using these weapons.

That's why it is of concern internationally.

[Junkdrawer]

14. No, it's not. What IS well established is that there is a big, well funded push....

to make us all THINK it's established.

Just like there was a big, well funded push to make us all certain that Saddam had WMDs.

[blm]

20. This 'evidence' of a chemical attack was manufactured by Obama the same way

Bush had manufactured the intel on Iraq to start a war there.

Yeah...sounds about right.

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-syria-iraq-intel-comparisons-20130830,0,1914370.story?track=rss

[grantcart]

25. There is not a single sentence in the article you link that supports a charge of Obama manufacturing

evidence.

The point of the article is that Bush's use of Curveball has left skepticism that the President has to deal with:

"One thing is indisputable," Cameron conceded. "The well of public opinion was well and truly poisoned by the Iraq episode and we need to understand the public skepticism."

In fact the article goes to some length to explain that there is little similarity between the two:

Political and international security analysts concede that the conditions prompting Obama to push for punitive strikes on Assad's forces are vastly different this time. Obama, who campaigned against his predecessor's rush to wage costly, faraway wars, has made clear his reluctance to get involved in Syria's nearly 2 1/2-year-old civil conflict, which has taken more than 100,000 lives.

Nor does Obama seek to topple Assad. Though despised by Western leaders and accused of savagery and war crimes, the Syrian autocrat would leave a dangerous power vacuum if he were ousted. That probably would lead to chaotic revenge attacks on Assad's minority Alawite community, sectarian clashes between Shiites and Sunnis, and infighting among the disparate rebel groups, the stronger of which are aligned with Al Qaeda.

This time, unlike the 130,000 coalition troops Bush had massed to invade Iraq, any U.S. strike on Syria would be limited in scope and duration, Obama insisted Friday.

[blm]

37. I know - which is why I stated it the way I did.

People need to wake up and realize they are kneecapping future presidents and permitting longterm suffering of millions around the world because of Bush's legacy of lies.


Number of Syrian refugees tops 2 million mark with more on the way

GENEVA, September 3 (UNHCR) – The number of Syrians forced to seek shelter abroad since civil war began in March 2011 passed the 2 million mark on Tuesday with no sign of the outflow ending soon.

"The war is now well into its third year and Syria is haemorrhaging women, children and men who cross borders often with little more than the clothes on their backs," the UN refugee agency said in a statement released to mark the milestone.

"This trend is nothing less than alarming, representing a jump of almost 1.8 million people in 12 months," UNHCR said. One year ago today, the number of Syrians registered as refugees or awaiting registration stood at about 230,670 people.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres said Syria had become "a disgraceful humanitarian calamity with suffering and displacement unparalleled in recent history." He added that "the only solace is the humanity shown by the neighbouring countries in welcoming and saving the lives of so many refugees."
>>>
http://www.unhcr.org/522495669.html

[deutsey]

15. Can you substantiate that it's "pretty well established"

Serious request. I have not seen anything that has proven Assad's regime was behind this atrocity.

[KittyWampus]

24. From Der Spiegel- please follow link and read whole article.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/situation-in-syria-deteriorates-as-west-looks-for-answers-a-919733-2.html

snip
Yet, it is perhaps irrelevant who gave the order since the entire Syrian leadership is reportedly afraid that the defense lines will collapse. These fears have been fanned by a number of developments over the past few weeks: the unauthorized withdrawal of previously Assad-loyal militias to their Alawite villages; the feared rebel offensive; the declining morale of the regular troops; and the rising losses without military victories to show for them.

The poison gas attack was probably carried out by the 4th division of Assad's army. Experts and defectors agree that this is the only unit that possesses launching devices for chemical weapons. Immediately following the chemical attack, it shelled rebel positions with conventional artillery -- but was unable to take a single location.

Instead, the division lost at least seven tanks in the Damascus neighborhood of Harasta alone. A rebel video provides an insight into the lack of personnel among the elite division: Two crew members flee a burning tank -- but they are wearing no uniforms, no helmets and no radio gear. Shabiha militia members have apparently been forced to fill the gaps in the ranks of the army.

The images are highly significant and don't correspond with reports that Assad has strengthened his military position. Military experts and intelligence agents had been circulating this theory for months, ever since the battle for control of the small town of Qusayr in early summer. Under the leadership of over 1,000 fighters from the Shiite Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, Assad's troops were able to recapture Qusayr.


Snip
Nevertheless, the myth of a military turning point in the regime's favor has persisted since June. This has also hampered the search for motives for the poison gas attack: Many observers wondered why Assad should use chemical weapons if he is winning the war already. In actual fact, the situation has been difficult for the regime's troops for quite some time now. Since the spring of 2012, many of the army's positions have only been supplied from the air because all land routes are under the control the rebels.

[deutsey]

26. Thanks

Maybe it was the translation, but I found a couple sentences biased:

"...while a triumphant Syrian president crowed ..."

"UN reports indicate a particularly demonic figure in the regime as the man possibly responsible for the attack."

But, again, that may be the translation. I've studied journalism and have worked as a reporter, so I guess I'm sensitive to word choice and how it colors a report.

In general, I thought the article in its entirety (Parts 1 and 2) was too speculative overall to really substantiate for me with certainty that Assad's regime did it. Still, the case it makes for why Assad's regime would do such a thing is compelling.

[sabrina 1]

34. It is way more likely to happen if Al Queda, who are also suspects with Saudi backing, are not held

accountable. Far more likely. In fact isn't that the main reason we are given for the infamous WOT? That, heaven forbid, Al Queda might get their hands on Chemical and/or Nuclear Weapons?? Now it appears this is exactly what may have happened.

It's amazing that we are no longer concerned about Al Queda getting their hands on these weapons. Was that all a lie too?

Time to take this to the International Court before we end up killing more people based on lies and on 'inclusive evidence'.

Nolan has now seen the 'evidence' and states he is even more convinced now to oppose this invasion.

That's good enough for me along with the British Parliament's rejection of Cameron's 'evidence'.

[David__77]

7. They did at least have the sense to round to the nearest whole number.

...

[Junkdrawer]

10. But nothing says "certainty" like three places after the decimal.

Opportunity missed.

[dipsydoodle]

11. Must confess the figure did sound odd

and I'd already suss'd it was higher than reported elsewhere.

Maybe he used his telephone number by mistake.

[JayhawkSD]

21. "I have in my hand a list of...

422 members of Congress who are card carrying members of the Communist party."

Two days later "I have in my hand a list of 328 members of Congress who are card carrying members of the Communist party."

The next day, "I have in my hand a list of 418 members of Congress who are card carrying members of the Communist party."

Kerry, "I have in my hand a list of 1,429 people of Congress who were killed by Asad's chemical weapons."

[JEB]

23. Lies like poison gas

can blow back into your face.

[jsr]

29. Only 1,429? His boss says THOUSANDS!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2013/09/03/obama-syria-strike-chemical-weapons-congress-g-20-russia/2756991/
Before the meeting with Boehner and other members of Congress from both parties, Obama told reporters: "We have high confidence that Syria used — in an indiscriminate fashion — chemical weapons that killed thousands of people, including over 400 children."

[Junkdrawer]

38. Everything tells you that this is all for public consumption...

and the actual reasons for war are not being debated.

[jwirr]

33. One more BIG question. We do not have enough facts to go to war in this situation.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

35. In war, truth is the first casualty. - Aeschylus