Nate Cohn: "Wendy Davis Doesn't Stand a Chance of Becoming Texas Governor"

[trumpetero]

"A Davis candidacy will surely thrill Democrats and reignite dreams of turning the Lone Star state “blue,” but don’t kid yourself: Davis is doomed.

Demographic changes might eventually break the Republican siege of those poor liberals in Austin. But for now, there isn’t a pathway to victory for progressive Texas Democrats. Obama lost by 16 points last November, despite favorable turnout and demographic trends. It’s even tougher for Democrats in an off-year, when non-white and young voters are unusually likely to stay home. In 2014, the white share of the electorate might increase to about 62 percent, up from 58 percent in 2012."

,http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114871/2014-texas-governor-wendy-davis-wont-win

[arely staircase]

1. pundits said Ann Richards would never win the Democratic Primary in 1990

much less beat a well funded GOP candidate.

[arely staircase]

44. you seem determined to make the case Davis can't win

why is that?

[arely staircase]

50. sorry we aren't like you

however that may be. but get on the team and send Wendy some money now

https://secure.wendydavistexas.com/donate/w1309dr/?source_codes=ckgasstxct1bn11

[Warren DeMontague]

53. You think 2014 is going to be favorable to the GOP?

I don't.

Traditionally when the crazy fuckjobs in the GOP base drive the party to do something stupid- like, impeach a popular president over a blowjob, or shut down the government- then that off-year logic gets upended.

[DrDan]

2. afraid this is true - Texas is not going to elect a D gov

it is over-the-top red

[arely staircase]

9. so we should take you off our fundraising list? nt

[DrDan]

13. did I say that?

but sometimes you have to face reality when it comes to non-infinite funds

[arely staircase]

16. so you are in?

https://secure.wendydavistexas.com/donate/w1309dr/?source_codes=ckgasstxct1bn11

[DrDan]

18. I'll contribute judiciously

[arely staircase]

25. thank you

[PeteSelman]

3. Agreed.

Texas turning blue anytime soon is a pipe dream. The good old boy network is so entrenched that it will nearly impossible to dig them out regardless of demographics. It'll be twenty years or more before it starts to change in any meaningful way. Davis doesn't have a prayer.

[arely staircase]

12. with all due respect

bullshit

and welcome to DU

[PeteSelman]

33. I would love nothing more than to be wrong about this.

But you know how those bastards are down there.

Thanks.

[arely staircase]

54. Of course I know how the bastards are

I have fought them my whole life. Now get with the team! Let's change things. Help us put the people of Texas in control of their government.

https://secure.wendydavistexas.com/donate/w1309dr/?source_codes=ckgasstxct1bn11

[The Magistrate]

4. Cheerful Sod, Sir: Fuck Him

Maybe she will, maybe she will not, but talking the thing down at the start does not help the effort, and the effort must be made.

[arely staircase]

6. +1 nt

[Raine1967]

14. Thank you.

This is the sort of attitude (highlighted by the OP) that I believe hurts more than helps.

It's almost -- but not quite -- saying give up now.

Self-defeatism is something that hurts the left in ways that people don't yet understand.

[TheCowsCameHome]

31. Thanks, the appropriate words escaped me momentarily.

[Cha]

39. This^^^^^!

[tsuki]

42. 50 state stragedy will not work. Remember that one? nt

[bunnies]

5. Oh, good. DU needs another Debbie Downer. nt

[ProSense]

7. Well, Nate

"A Davis candidacy will surely thrill Democrats and reignite dreams of turning the Lone Star state “blue,” but don’t kid yourself: Davis is doomed."

...your opinion doesn't mean jack shit.

Davis might have other reasons for running. Maybe she wants to build the party, or fight the good fight. Who knows? But one thing is clear: Absent a catastrophically bad Republican candidate there isn’t a pathway to victory for progressive Texas Democrats, at least not yet. In a state dominated by white evangelicals and non-white voters, there just aren’t enough swing voters to close a 20 point deficit. And even if there was a progressive Democrat who could win, it's not Wendy Davis.

Also, you seem like a fucking tool!

[arely staircase]

10. wonder what

the previous ten posts were since the 11th was to shit on Wendy Davis' chances.

[JDPriestly]

62. Right. Wendy may not be able to win, but she can get the progressive message out there.

Maybe no Democrat can "win" at this time. But we need a candidate like Wendy to wake Americans up to the true face of progressive ideas. We are the future. The Republicans may still be able to win elections in retrograde states like Texas, but we progressives represent the future of America.

We just have to do what is right, respect ourselves and others and stay steady.

[meadowlark5]

8. I think it's a long shot as well

Especially with all the voter shenanigans that Perry and Co have been and will put in place to ensure there will be no Gov. Wendy Davis.

[arely staircase]

11. thank you for that post

you have convinced me to work twice as hard in my precinct.

[bunnies]

23. I dont know about you...

but I smell something foul in this thread.

[arely staircase]

27. well it was a B12 shot for me

I was fired up, now I'm on fire.

So, FAIL.

[bunnies]

29. Yep.

Unintended consequences and all that. <---- you, literally.

[treestar]

15. Even if she does not win, a lot might be said and done

to soften the Texas populace. There are DUers who say that we can turn it blue. And thrilling the Democrats and igniting dreams of turning the Lone Star State Blue is not a bad thing. They keep working at it, is all. There's no reason to abandon Davis' candidacy as hopeless and doing nothing - that will just enable the Republicans.

[arely staircase]

19. no shit

we are organizing, we are sanding the decks, fuck the negativity.

It is on!

[treestar]

21. Go you!

The comments on the thread about Ann Richards are heartening!

[arely staircase]

24. seriously, Ann was considered a huge long shot in the primary

those who worked on her campaign were considered well intentioned but doomed to failure. I was there. I have seen this movie.

[Rectangle]

34. And, if her Teaparty loon opponent spouts enough really stupid, idiotic/misogynistic/

statements (I know, quite a stretch of the imagination), who is to say
that she couldn't catch fire, especially with women and eek out a victory!!!

[blogslut]

17. Ann Richards didn't have a chance either

But then, Clayton Williams got mean, nasty and gross.

Greg Abbott and his party have the potential to be supremely despicable and the backfire could put Ms. Davis in the governor's office.

[arely staircase]

22. and Ann never listened to the people who told her she couldn't win

and neither did we who were with her from the beginning. I will admit that Abbott is the favorite and Wendy is the underdog. But underdogs win all the time. All it takes is focus and a lucky break or two. If that wasn't the case, there would be no sports bookies. All gamblers would just bet on the favorite every time and win.

[blogslut]

26. I see so much of what they did to Governor Richards in the GOP's defiance of Obama

From the moment she took the oath of office, they defied her at every chance. It broke my heart.

[jbond56]

20. republicans picked a fight with Texas Women.

Sure in the past turn has been down. Texas Women also had several options available to them when it came to their health care. Now their rights are under direct assault and some have been taken away. They have the power to change turnout. I think pundits are seriously underestimating the resolve of Texas Women. Another thing the previous races were just not that interesting. Wendy will fight and make it interesting. So I think it is wonderful so many are underestimating her.

[justabob]

30. this

They have the power to change turnout. I think pundits are seriously underestimating the resolve of Texas Women. Another thing the previous races were just not that interesting. Wendy will fight and make it interesting.

She's got young people engaged too. She got a whole lot of people fired up with that filibuster, people who previously were not even a little bit interested in things political. I agree she will keep it interesting. I think it is safe to say the GOP will be eating their feet all over the place too. That can't be discounted.

[whttevrr]

28. oops...

time to kick that thread I bookmarked... brb.

[Lifelong Protester]

32. Woman are angry, I wouldn't dismiss that anger

(ignore angry women at your peril, Nate)....

[BillyRibs]

35. Your Opinion about this,

Like the yesterday dirty diapers, Quite frankly sir, stink!
The awakening has begun!

[demgrrrll]

36. Other articles by Cohn: No, the shutdown will not destroy the Republican Majority

The failed Republican Moderate revolt is good news, Quit blaming gerrymandering for the shut down. I believe I see a pattern here.........

[Bolo Boffin]

37. I will not dismiss the possibility of Davis becoming governor

But sometimes running a campaign is about the organizing. If Texas does not go blue in 2014, it will go blue eventually, and Wendy Davis taking the time to head up a big round of statewide organizing will not be wasted time.

So either way, the New Republic guy can cram it.

[Caretha]

38. Your concern is noted

.....btw, I hate hit & run posters, no really.

More news, that Dog don't hunt.

[dem in texas]

41. Wait and see, Texas is ripe for change

In 2006 in Dallas county, Democrats won all 40 of the seats they were running for. a Every Republican Judge was voted out of office. Change is in the air as Texas gets more Democratic voters. All the large Texas towns how have more Dems than repubs. Wendy Davis may be just what is needed to fire up all the Dems and have a large turnout. She has my full support and I hope other will help her too by contributing to her campaign. The repub's right wing candidate, Greg Abbott, has a 20 million dollar war chest and it is sure to grow.

[billh58]

45. So you joined up

just today to bash Democrats? Have we met before?

[HangOnKids]

57. Keep your chin up

I can tell you are trying!

[Warren DeMontague]

47. She has at least as good odds as anyone else with a (D) after their name.

Why not run someone people can get enthused about?

[hrmjustin]

49. You never know till you try.

[Dawson Leery]

51. Ann Richards.

[alarimer]

52. Well with Perry not running, I think she probably does.

I don't know who the Republicans will field and I have no idea who else will compete in the Democratic Primary, but I couldn't even name the last Democratic candidate for Texas governor and I lived there at the time. Democratic candidates tended to be pretty much non-entities because no one figured they had a shot. But Davis at least has some name recognition and make at least make it competitive, especially against a non-incumbent.

[grantcart]

55. Until Democrats start owning off year turn out numbers we are going to have

a lot of disappointments.

I just hope this isn't one of them.

[Agnosticsherbet]

56. Maybe, but she should still try. If we don't stand up we will never be counted. nt

[Coyotl]

58. Did you join DU to post stuff like this?

From sources like that?

[billh58]

61. Of course it

did. That's what zombies do.

[LostOne4Ever]

59. I DONT GIVE A DAMNED IF SHE IS DOOMED OR NOT

I am going to do what I can to help her in whatever way I possibly can!!!

I can not remember a democratic gobernatorial candadite out here who has been this exciting since Anne Richards!!!

AND THEY SAID SHE COULDN'T WIN EITHER!!!

But what happened? Clayton Williams pissed off almost every single woman in the state and learned that you DO NOT CROSS TEXAS WOMEN!!! And guess what? The GOP out here have stripped off almost all pretenses on the war against women with their closing of all those abortion clinics and running out of PP.

Abbot is a world class asshole and if ANYONE can beat that worthless bastard....its Wendy Davis!!!

[jsr]

60. Are you saying Democrats shouldn't waste money on her?

[eridani]

63. Oops--wrong Nate. I thought it was Nate Silver

Even if it had been, you still have to build for the future.