PPP pollster under fire

[Buzz Lightyears]

Huffington Post's polling expert Mark Blumenthal and Nate Cohn reacted to a recent PPP poll commissioned by Moveon.org in which is said that Republicans could lose the House in 2014. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/07/congressional-approval_n_4060128.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster


Blumenthal links to a PPP statement where PPP said Democrats could win the House in 2012: www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/house-majority-pac-releases-polls-in-12-redrawn-gop-districts-all-12-in-deep-trouble-back-home

Additionally, Blumenthal said PPP had a pro-Democratic bias in House polls in 2012:



Nate Cohn, in a separate article, says PPP's polls are useless because the Democratic candidates in all of them are a "generic". http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115036/house-elections-2014-democrats-poorly-positioned-blue-states

[CoffeeCat]

1. Nate Cohn is an idiot, if he doesn't realize...

...that those Republican candidates are in trouble. Hello...they're running against a phantom candidate--and they still lose.

Someone needs to explain to Mr. Cohn that this is worse than losing to a ham sandwich. People are fed up with this obstructionist, do-nothing bullies from the planet nimrod. So much so, that they prefer any Democrat over them.

[pscot]

2. This is the 2nd time this story has been posted

by someone with a low post count. Do you people get a handout to work from?

[blm]

7. Yep - They all swallow the same Moonie News they've been

fed by their fascist masters for decades now.

[hrmjustin]

8. Was the other one posted today?

[pscot]

10. May have been yesterday

[hrmjustin]

11. Thanks.

[snooper2]

40. You better be watching your ass out there

Nobody loves anything more than destroying Buzz Lightyear!

[Dawson Leery]

9. They get paid for their services.

Much like a streetwalker, though actual streetwalkers have integrity.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. The OP is the same clown who was trying to scare the gullible and uninformed with "bad" polls

The OP is the same clown who was trying to scare the gullible and uninformed with "bad" polls prior to the 012 election under a myriad of different aliases. Who knows? Way too early to make any projections right now. And in any case the House is gerrymandered to thwart the will of the people. The Republicants lost House races by 1,700,000 votes and still maintained their majority.



I hope that clown is reading this

[hrmjustin]

3. How does this make you feel?

[cthulu2016]

6. Hmmm... I'll guess, "concerned"

[Zorra]

43. Concerned; very concerned. I'm calling Congress RFN! nt

[bravenak]

4. Whatevs.

Republicans are losing their minds and losing support. They may keep the house but I doubt it after the way this is turning out.

[blm]

5. Don't worry, we know you won't lose the house. GOP seats have been extreme gerrymandered

to the point that some of those seats have been nailed into their asses.

Such a shame. The exact same people who say there should be no special efforts that gives anyone an advantage then turns around and quietly practices such extreme gerrymandering to prevent any form of true democracy.

[Recursion]

22. Wait. Gerrymandering can work two ways, and only one of them at a time

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023805476

You can either expand your numbers in the House, or you can make your districts safer. Every voter being used to keep a Republican district safe isn't being used to pick off a Democrat, and vice versa.

[blm]

32. Newsflash. When you carve out 4 districts in such a way you guarantee

that the Dem can ONLY win ONE of them, that's extreme gerrymandering.

Frankly, I find it disgusting that anyone here would think that the majority of voters in a state should be denied majority rule they voted for. Extreme gerrymandering to NC means that Democrats would have to win almost 65% of the vote just to break even with the GOP.

[Uncle Joe]

12. The Republicans are going to get their ass kicked in 2014 over this and the longer it drags out,

the more severe the beating.

The House Republicans have awoken a giant.

[Art_from_Ark]

16. I hope you're right

Public backlash against Republicans led to Democrats bucking the trend of the White House losing Congressional seats in the midterms twice in the last 100 years:

1934-- public backlash against Republican blockage of New Deal legislation

1998-- public backlash against the Republicans' impeachment circus

Maybe in 2014, it will be public backlash against reckless Republican obstructionism?

[Art_from_Ark]

33. Losing seats is the historical trend

So yes, it is at issue here. And for at least the last 100 years, NO party in the White House has ever regained control of the House during a mid-term election. So it would be quite a formidable feat if that were to happen.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

42. Do you realize how desperate you look?

Rational people can understand the volatility of the house and how the "switching cost" is relatively low for dumping a representative. If you don't care for the new one you voted in, you can always get a new one in two years.

Republicans are fucking morons and not admitting the obvious. Americans are more and more pissed at them and it could very well rise to the level of GOP losing 19 or 20 seats and HoR going to Dems.

Deal with it.

[Lex]

13. Polls mean little when the Repukes have GERRYMANDERED themselves

into permanent office. They don't give one shit about democracy and have shown themselves to be anti-voting anyway.

[BeyondGeography]

14. They had Obama beating Romney handily, too

[MattBaggins]

15. noted... duly... concern

[Pretzel_Warrior]

17. To the Pizza Hut and beyond!!!

[grantcart]

26. and thus we have a thread winner

[JustAnotherGen]

28. Ha!

Love the visual!

[Pretzel_Warrior]

18. You say PPP...I say PPR.

[LAGC]

19. How did those "Unskewed Polls" work out in 2012?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

31. Forget the "Unskewed Polls"

Almost all of the "real" polls were pretty junky as I recall. PPP was one of the few polling organizations to poll close to reality.

[LadyHawkAZ]

20. "Liberal-bias polling" complaints are sooo 1 year ago. n/t

[Recursion]

21. Incumbents overperform generic ballots

That's kind of one of those ironclad rules of polling.

[kelliekat44]

36. And here are two more ironclad rules of polling and elections:

1. Unopposed usually wins

2. And voters usually outperform non-voters.

[Recursion]

38. yep. (nt)

[SoCalDem]

23. "erred"?? Looks like they were just correct

Dems did win

[Proud Liberal Dem]

30. The Democrats won a majority of votes in 2012 (nationally)

that, unfortunately, didn't translate to winning control of enough House seats to win the House in 2012, largely, I believe, due to gerrymandering following the 2010 midterms, however it is an important indicator- particularly with the current Republican shutdown- that the public-at-large increasingly does not favor the GOP. It's hard to say what will happen in next year's midterms of course and Democratic turnout will be key but the longer this shutdown lasts, if the Republicans decide to cause the US to default (entirely unnecessarily I might add), and the more extreme the GOP gets, I'd say that there is a very definite possibility that the Dems could build up enough momentum to take the House. Anything is certainly possible IMHO.

[msanthrope]

34. This is concerning. nt

[Pretzel_Warrior]

37. That line never fails to crack me up

[Recursion]

39. When you have lost both msanthrope and PW, you have clearly lost DU

Are there consolation prizes? This one seems to be trying very hard.

[Arugula Latte]

41. There, there. We know this hasn't been a good week for you.

Maybe take a walk outside, get a little Vitamin D ...

[hrmjustin]

45. Thank you EarlG.

MIR Team (EarlG) banned Buzz Lightyears

Mail Message
Reason:
Previously banned multiple times.

http://www.democraticunderground.com?com=profile&uid=308427&sub=trans

Real name:
DU Member for:
Posts: 19
Recommendations: 0
Star member: No

[alcibiades_mystery]

48. ROFL

[reflection]

46. .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Account status: Posting privileges revoked

Star Member DemocratSinceBirth (46,762 posts)
29. The OP is the same clown who was trying to scare the gullible and uninformed with "bad" polls


The OP is the same clown who was trying to scare the gullible and uninformed with "bad" polls prior to the 012 election under a myriad of different aliases. Who knows? Way too early to make any projections right now. And in any case the House is gerrymandered to thwart the will of the people. The Republicants lost House races by 1,700,000 votes and still maintained their majority.



I hope that clown is reading this

[Pretzel_Warrior]

49. Me too. I will predict for buzzed lightyear that Dems will take back the house. With room to

Spare. They will gain a net of 25 seats. Got it? Just like Obama steam rolled Romney. LOLOLOLOlOL. Deal with it, loser!