General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIn VA, 2 new polls with widely divergent results:
The new Roanoke College poll shows McAuliffe up 15. The Quinnipiac poll shows him up by 4. I think the current aggregate has him up by 7.
A Roanoke College poll showed businessman and former Democratic National Committee Chairman McAuliffe with a 15-point lead over state Attorney General Cuccinelli, though that margin was far stronger than in two other polls.
"This election is shaping up to be a referendum on Cuccinelli," said Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.
Cuccinelli, a Tea Party favorite and strong abortion opponent, was hurt by this month's federal government shutdown and now has a 52 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters, compared with McAuliffe's 33 percent unfavorability, the poll found.
"When you're in the 40s, that's high. When you hit the 50s, you're in uncharted territory," Wilson said.
<snip>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/30/us-usa-politics-virginia-idUSBRE99T1BF20131030
Cuccinelli will lose this on his unprecedented unfavorables.
brooklynite
(93,834 posts)Remember when people would get angst-ridden in 2012 every time an outlier poll said things were getting close?
The bottom line is that there have been only two polls since July where Cuccinelli has broken 40%. His line has been flat, while McAuliffe has been slowly moving up.
cali
(114,904 posts)customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)Polls usually count "likely voters", and they define them as those who voted in the last general election. Will McAuliffe draw out the Obama voters that tipped the state to him in 2008 and 2012? That remains to be seen.
I drove through coal-country Virginia a bit more than a year ago, there were a lot of anti-Obama messages on billboards then, I'm sure the passion of the rural right-wing voter hasn't softened even a little bit since then.
My prediction: A nail biter going late into the evening. Hope I'm wrong.
countingbluecars
(4,766 posts)Here in my part of Northern VA it is Cuccinelli country-huge signs everywhere. I am a bit nervous. If Democratic turnout is low, it will be a nail biter.
JI7
(89,172 posts)hopefully it will help with turnout.
countingbluecars
(4,766 posts)Somehow I missed that news. Looks like Obama will be here on Sunday, and Biden will be here on election eve. Like you said, I hope it will help with the turnout.