Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

cali

(114,904 posts)
Fri Nov 1, 2013, 05:06 AM Nov 2013

In VA, 2 new polls with widely divergent results:

The new Roanoke College poll shows McAuliffe up 15. The Quinnipiac poll shows him up by 4. I think the current aggregate has him up by 7.



A Roanoke College poll showed businessman and former Democratic National Committee Chairman McAuliffe with a 15-point lead over state Attorney General Cuccinelli, though that margin was far stronger than in two other polls.

"This election is shaping up to be a referendum on Cuccinelli," said Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.

Cuccinelli, a Tea Party favorite and strong abortion opponent, was hurt by this month's federal government shutdown and now has a 52 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters, compared with McAuliffe's 33 percent unfavorability, the poll found.

"When you're in the 40s, that's high. When you hit the 50s, you're in uncharted territory," Wilson said.

<snip>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/30/us-usa-politics-virginia-idUSBRE99T1BF20131030

Cuccinelli will lose this on his unprecedented unfavorables.

6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
In VA, 2 new polls with widely divergent results: (Original Post) cali Nov 2013 OP
Don't look at the polls...look at the poll trends. brooklynite Nov 2013 #1
which is why I noted the aggregate and Cuccinelli's high unfavorables. cali Nov 2013 #2
Let's not forget one thing customerserviceguy Nov 2013 #3
I agree with your prediction. countingbluecars Nov 2013 #4
OBama is coming tomorrow isn't he ? JI7 Nov 2013 #5
Thanks! countingbluecars Nov 2013 #6

brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
1. Don't look at the polls...look at the poll trends.
Fri Nov 1, 2013, 08:53 AM
Nov 2013

Remember when people would get angst-ridden in 2012 every time an outlier poll said things were getting close?

The bottom line is that there have been only two polls since July where Cuccinelli has broken 40%. His line has been flat, while McAuliffe has been slowly moving up.

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
3. Let's not forget one thing
Fri Nov 1, 2013, 06:18 PM
Nov 2013

Polls usually count "likely voters", and they define them as those who voted in the last general election. Will McAuliffe draw out the Obama voters that tipped the state to him in 2008 and 2012? That remains to be seen.

I drove through coal-country Virginia a bit more than a year ago, there were a lot of anti-Obama messages on billboards then, I'm sure the passion of the rural right-wing voter hasn't softened even a little bit since then.

My prediction: A nail biter going late into the evening. Hope I'm wrong.

countingbluecars

(4,766 posts)
4. I agree with your prediction.
Fri Nov 1, 2013, 06:37 PM
Nov 2013

Here in my part of Northern VA it is Cuccinelli country-huge signs everywhere. I am a bit nervous. If Democratic turnout is low, it will be a nail biter.

countingbluecars

(4,766 posts)
6. Thanks!
Fri Nov 1, 2013, 07:39 PM
Nov 2013

Somehow I missed that news. Looks like Obama will be here on Sunday, and Biden will be here on election eve. Like you said, I hope it will help with the turnout.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»In VA, 2 new polls with w...