Yes, democrats fate in 2014 depends on the success or failure of the ACA

[cali]

(I hate referring to it as "Obamacare", regardless)

It's way too early to be panicking and moaning about how dems are screwed next year because of the ACA. The federal web portal is quietly being fixed.

The American Prospect has an article with a good perspective on this:

Memo to Democratic Chicken Littles: The Sky Is Not Falling

Ah, now this is what politics is supposed to be like: Ruthless Republicans, gleeful at the prospect that they might increase the net total of human suffering. Timorous Democrats, panicking at the first hint of political difficulty and rushing to assemble a circular firing squad. And the news media bringing out the "Dems In Disarray!" headlines they keep in storage for just this purpose.

The problems of the last couple weeks "could threaten Democratic priorities for years," says Ron Brownstein. It's just like Hurricane Katrina, says The New York Times (minus the 1,500 dead people, I guess they mean, though they don't say so). "On the broader question of whether Obama can rebuild an effective presidency after this debacle," says Dana Milbank, "it's starting to look as if it may be game over." Ruth Marcus also declares this presidency all but dead: "Can he recover? I'm sorry to say: I'm not at all confident."

Oh please. Everyone just chill out.

It's incredible how often reporters and pundits proclaim that what's happening this week is the most important political development in years, and the balance of political advantage today will remain just as it is indefinitely into the future. Then a few weeks or months later things change, and they forget about what they said before, declaring once again that today's situation is how things will be forevermore. Not long ago, people were saying that the fact that Obama couldn't get a congressional vote authorizing a bombing campaign in Syria had crippled his presidency. Then the Republicans shut down the government, and people were saying they wouldn't win another election in our lifetimes. That's just in the last few months. And now people are saying that Obama's second term, which has three years left to go, is an unrecoverable disaster.

So let's try to see things from a less panicky perspective. The rollout has been a mess, but it's important to remember that this period is all a preparation for the actual implementation of the law. Nothing that's happening now is permanent. People have gotten cancellation notices, but no one has lost their coverage. The website sucked when it debuted, it sucks slightly less now, but there's still lots of time for people to sign up for plans that take effect next year. And if things aren't working properly by December, they'll probably extend the open enrollment period to a point at which everything's working. That's a hassle, sure. But you can't call the Affordable Care Act a failure until it takes effect and does or does not achieve its goals. That would be like calling your team's season a failure because they lost a couple of pre-season games.

<snip>

http://prospect.org/article/memo-democratic-chicken-littles-sky-not-falling

Look, if you want to panic, go for it, but why not wait a few months? Public perceptions can shift substantially in a matter of days, let alone months, and beside, the public hasn't yet rejected the ACA. It's pretty predictable that some vulnerable House dems would panic: Take a look at the list of 39 who voted with repubs yesterday- they're almost all from districts where they're vulnerable from a challenge from the right.

In 1916 Harold Wilson said "A week is a long time in politics".

It was true then and it's just as true today- and tomorrow.

[Fumesucker]

1. On the other hand it's still a bit early to be cruising the victory lap

We had best hope that the people getting shafted in the red states don't choose to aim their ire at Democrats rather than Republicans.

For good or ill, the Democrats are stuck like glue to the ACA, the Republicans made absolutely sure of that.

[cali]

2. Our best hopes are that the ACA works fairly well

including in red states and that other events in the coming year (something that will certainly happen) overtake the Media message that the ACA is a failure.

[PADemD]

3. No way am I going to vote for Tom Corbett because of the ACA web page!

Or any other Republican, for that matter.

[scheming daemons]

4. a month ago, the GOP was on its death bed

Over the shutdown and debt ceiling.

A month before that, Obama had "jumped the shark" because of the inevitable war in Syria.

A month from now, the budget will be the number one story again.



Bottom line... calm the fuck down.

[cali]

5. we agree on something. the panic is stupid and counterproductive

calm the fuck down is right.

[scheming daemons]

6. if cali and I can come together on something...

... then all is possible.

[cali]

7. sometimes I forget that all us of here (well, the vast majority)

have more in common than that which separates us.

[Laelth]

8. Agreed and well said. k&r n/t

-Laelth

[Savannahmann]

9. Cali, it's rare that I disagree with you.

I do agree with the presumption, which is that the democrats chances in 2014, and further into 2016, ride on the ACA (Like you I don't use the term that Obamacare) but here is where we disagree.

Insurance companies will be going through enough paper to cause the death of a national forest sending those who do subscribe the lists that they need. That list is the covered procedures, you know the debates here, and the doctors who are covered. Then those people armed with their new insurance cards thanks to the Democratic Party, will start calling and trying to make an appointment. As I've already pointed out, many GP's are not accepting new patients, and that is before the ACA kicks in come January. OB/GYN's are similarly unwilling to take new patients, you have to be pregnant to get an appointment with many Doctors.

So every month, the bill has to be paid for their insurance, and every month they are unable to get the preventative care that we promised them. Who will they blame? The party of no in the form of the Rethugs? They'll blame those who made promises they could not keep. I think it's past time that we came up with a good plan to offer improvements. Even if the Rethugs shut it down in the house, at least we're seen as swinging away trying to make things better.

[Douglas Carpenter]

10. most likely - that will be by far the single biggest factor